Doc’s Sports Service stands as the leading and most reputable sports information provider in the United States. Below are 12 expert tips for NFL betting that reflect the unique insights of our diverse team.
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Here are 12 valuable NFL betting tips from our expert team:
DOC’S SPORTS – The NFL presents a unique challenge for bettors due to the wealth of information available on each of the 32 teams. A crucial point to remember while assessing NFL matchups is that all players are professionals, resulting in limited continuity from week to week. A team may suffer a heavy defeat one week, and novice bettors may be tempted to wager against them the following week, anticipating a repeat performance. This mindset often leads to poor bets, as professional athletes tend to rebound with pride. Over-adjusted betting lines often favor teams coming off disappointing performances, so betting on those teams can yield positive outcomes.
ROBERT FERRINGO – I have a strong passion for betting on the NFL. Many believe it is a difficult sport to master and complicate what should be straightforward. My primary advice for new football bettors is not to focus overly on the spread—just pick the winner. Bettors often undermine their chances by fixating on spreads. Over a decade (2004-2014), NFL favorites went 1283-1210-67 against the spread, nearly a 50% rate (49.5 to be precise). Nonetheless, the final numbers often diverged from the spread by over 10 points, with the outright winner covering the spread 84.1% of the time. This indicates that the spread only factors in roughly every six or seven games. Don’t choose underdogs solely because you think they’ll remain close, and don’t shy away from favorites if the spread isn’t ideal. Picking the outright winner significantly increases your chances of covering the spread.
GRIFFIN MURPHY – I thoroughly enjoy betting on the NFL. The impact of quarterbacks is substantial in football. The matchup dynamics hinge on the mobility of the quarterback and how well the opposing defense adapts to either rushing or passing styles. There are numerous trap bets within the NFL; sometimes, the lines strongly favor one team, luring the public into betting. This situation often leads to mismatches. Personally, I prefer backing mobile quarterbacks and I lean towards spreads rather than moneyline bets.
RAPHAEL ESPARZA – Pay attention to second-round line movements. Oddsmakers typically publish NFL lines following the late Sunday NBC game, causing immediate adjustments as bettors shift focus to the next week. By mid-week, the lines often shift again, which is when I delve deeper into the games I’ve highlighted. While line movements can sometimes be beneficial, they can also hinder your betting strategy. However, monitoring these movements can provide insights into factors such as weather conditions and injury reports, which become clearer as the week progresses.
STRIKE POINT SPORTS – Some NFL teams struggle in the favorite role. This could be because they are overrated by the public, face poor coaching, or have inconsistent quarterback performances. Certain teams, like the Dallas Cowboys, often fall into this category. Teams built on a strong running game and robust defense tend to perform better as underdogs. For example, Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans thrive as underdogs and frequently win outright when receiving points. Avoid betting these teams when they’re heavily favored, either steer clear or take the points.
ARUN SHIVA (INDIAN COWBOY) – We focus on a strategy we term the “active underdog over theory.” This approach involves betting on an underdog expected to perform beyond expectations—especially if motivated by past losses, recent heavy defeats, or disappointments against favored teams—and betting ‘over’ on their point total. If an underdog appears poised to exceed their projected performance, it’s wise to back them to score above their expected total, especially when emotions drive motivation from past grievances.
JASON SHARPE – Success in NFL betting hinges on thinking creatively. The NFL betting market is perceived as the most challenging for sports bettors to conquer, as it receives extensive scrutiny from fans and media. If your view about a team aligns with the majority, reconsider your betting strategy for that team. Statistics indicate that 95% of NFL bettors lose money during the regular season. Aligning with the crowd typically leads to failure. Seek opportunities to go against public sentiment, as they significantly influence betting lines. For instance, if a team’s spread shifts from -4 at the week’s start to -7 by game day amidst widespread belief of an easy win, betting against that team at +7 may offer better value.
AUGUST YOUNG – The efficiency of the NFL market demands cautious spot selection. Identifying situational trends can lead to significant profits, often surpassing attempts to establish true lines more precise than Vegas odds. For example, early-season small road underdogs (less than +7) coming off poor seasons (6 wins or fewer) performed at a 63.4% cover rate from 2011-2020. This trend makes sense, as the public usually bets heavily against these previously unsuccessful teams, allowing savvy bettors to capitalize alongside bookmakers. Avoid non-predictive trends, like specific player performance metrics with small sample sizes, as they hold no future value.
VERNON CROY – Betting on the NFL is challenging due to the finely-tuned betting lines. The bookmakers invest considerable effort refining these lines for high-stakes games. My essential advice is always to purchase the hook or half point regarding key numbers: 3.5, 7.5, 10.5, and 14.5. Buying points on these numbers effectively alters your bet to 3, 7, 10, and can mean the difference between losing and pushing when lines are narrow. Bet on the public favorites promptly following the line release, and target underdogs closer to game time for optimal lines because the odds fluctuate as the week progresses.
TONY GEORGE – Always keep in mind that in the NFL, the line holds paramount importance. Your wager revolves around numbers rather than teams or games. Key numbers, referred to as “fall numbers,” are those most likely to influence final scores, such as 3, 6, 7, and 10. Betting on a home underdog at 3 points is far less advantageous than at 3.5 points. The significance of that half-point cannot be overstated, particularly around these crucial figures.
SCOTT SPREITZER – A valuable lesson I learned from a seasoned Vegas bettor decades ago is to create your betting lines a week in advance. For instance, if the Steelers are set to face the Ravens on October 15 after playing the Bengals on October 8, make your line for the October 15 game before the earlier game occurs. Establish your numbers by mid-week, eight days ahead of the next NFL matchups. This approach prevents overreacting to atypical performances. Mastering the mindset of a bookmaker forms the cornerstone of successful betting. This strategic tool has contributed significantly to my NFL accomplishments, including a Top 20 finish in the Westgate NFL Super Contest. Remember, we bet on numbers, not just teams.
NICK MENKEN – When placing bets in the NFL, it’s crucial to assess how a team’s offensive strengths interact with an opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities. While some teams excel against the pass, others may be stronger in run defense. A team’s ability to exploit defensive weaknesses will largely determine their success. The quarterback’s effectiveness is vital; observe how different quarterbacks perform against varying defensive strategies. A quarterback may struggle against heavy blitzes or defenses that excel at deep passes.
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