It’s something I mention every season.
Be cautious of the Buzz Teams.
Every NFL season, there are always one or two teams that capture the public’s imagination. A few franchises end up being the “sleeper team” or “team poised for a breakout” in many conversations.
More often than not, the Buzz Team falls short of expectations.
This time around, New England fits this trend perfectly.
The hiring of new head coach Mike Vrabel has sparked newfound energy and optimism in a team still rebuilding after its glory days. Adding to the excitement, New England invested nearly $300 million in free agency and was celebrated for a draft that secured five out of the top 106 talents.
With a relatively weak division and a notably easier schedule, it seems like everyone’s hopping on the New England bandwagon. The Patriots have been generating significant buzz among bettors and analysts as they head into the upcoming season as one of the most talked-about teams.
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 OFFENSE
For the Patriots to make any significant progress this year, it must happen on the offensive front.
Drake Maye has received acclaim for his rookie season, though I have my doubts.
With a 3-9 record in his 12 starts and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 15 to 10, his performance was far from impressive. Maye led the league’s worst total offensive and passing offense rankings. Additionally, the Patriots struggled on third downs and in the red zone, averaging just 17 points a game.
The general assumption is that Maye will improve in his sophomore year. However, that’s not always the case; Mac Jones made the Pro Bowl in his first season but then saw a drastic decline in his subsequent two years. There are no guarantees that Maye’s development will follow a smooth trajectory.
His growth will hinge on offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has ridden the coattails of Tom Brady for years. McDaniels hasn’t spearheaded a Top 10 total offense since 2018, and his past successes seem tied to Brady’s presence rather than his coaching acumen.
New England hasn’t cultivated a genuine No. 1 wide receiver in over a decade. As such, I’ll adopt a cautious “wait and see” approach regarding a wide receiver unit that features remnants of Stefon Diggs and a collection of No. 3 options.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 DEFENSE
This squad boasts a youthful defense, and how well this group gels will be crucial to the team’s success, parallel to Maye’s growth.
New England has heavily invested in five new defensive starters while also using several late draft picks on defensive players. By the time training camp commenced, the Patriots had welcomed 13 new faces onto the defensive two-deep roster, signaling a significant overhaul from last season’s squad that was ranked 22nd in total defense and scoring.
How much excitement should we have about acquisitions like Robert Spillane and Carlton Davis? The substantial financial commitment to bolster the defense raises questions, as it’s unclear if these players will make a tangible difference, given the lack of standout talent on the roster.
Defensive coordinator Terrell Williams, who collaborated with Vrabel in Tennessee for six seasons before spending last year in Detroit, steps into his first coordinator role. It remains to be seen if he can effectively mold all these new components into a cohesive defensive unit.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 SCHEDULE
Sun, Sep 7 vs Las Vegas Raiders 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Sep 14 @ Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Sep 21 vs Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Sep 28 vs Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Oct 5 @ Buffalo Bills 8:20 p.m.
Sun, Oct 12 @ New Orleans Saints 4:25 p.m.
Sun, Oct 19 @ Tennessee Titans 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Oct 26 vs Cleveland Browns 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Nov 2 vs Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Nov 9 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 p.m.
Thu, Nov 13 vs New York Jets 8:15 p.m.
Sun, Nov 23 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m.
Mon, Dec 1 vs New York Giants 8:15 p.m.
Sun, Dec 14 vs Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Dec 21 @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Dec 28 @ New York Jets 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Jan 4/5 vs Miami Dolphins TBD
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS
Having seen their preseason win total decrease for three consecutive seasons (from 9.5 to 7.5 to 6.5), the Patriots’ projected Vegas win total has now surged back up to 8.5. For perspective, the Pats had a dismal combined record of 8-26 over the last two seasons.
I’ll concede that there are many statistical markers indicating a significant rebound for this group. They were -4 in closely contested losses last year and have ended the last two seasons at -11 in turnover differential. New England faced significant injury challenges in the previous season, and their offensive yards per point is in a favorable regression zone for the second consecutive season.
I also believe that Vrabel is a capable coach, known for leading teams that tend to outperform expectations.
However, it’s worth noting that Vrabel’s last two seasons in Tennessee resulted in a 13-21 record, and much of his success stemmed from A) Derrick Henry’s contributions and B) despite metrics suggesting his teams weren’t as effective as their records indicated.
While the Patriots benefit from a manageable schedule, I’m wary of the overwhelming public support. I anticipate that New England will show marked improvement compared to the previous two seasons, but I don’t believe they are entirely “back.” Expecting them to challenge for double-digit wins feels overly optimistic.
I’ll be leaning towards the ‘under’ on their win total.
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