With three weeks into the OLR, the realm of college football has spiraled into exciting disarray. Underdogs are making waves, ranked teams are falling from grace, and the betting landscape is anything but stable. Last week’s shocking upset was delivered by unranked USF, who stunned No. 13 Florida with an 18–16 victory in Gainesville as an 18-point underdog. This triumph marked the Bulls’ second consecutive victory over a ranked team, concluding with a last-second field goal that left the Swamp in disbelief. More than just an upset, this result sent a powerful message: USF, initially snubbed in preseason rankings and underestimated by oddsmakers, is reimagining expectations week by week. As bettors grapple with the aftermath of Week 1’s turmoil, the opening OLR for the week has turned into a minefield for favorites and a treasure trove for savvy bettors.
Our picks from Week 2 mirrored Duke’s outing against Illinois. The Blue Devils kicked off with an early 3–0 lead in their first drive, but that was the last highlight as they succumbed 45–19 to the visiting Big Ten opponent. Starting off on a positive note was Northern Illinois, who lost 20–9 to Maryland while achieving an 18.5-point underdog status. Nevertheless, the subsequent four picks fell short, culminating in a narrow 21–20 defeat for Marshall as a 10-point favorite against Missouri State in its inaugural FBS campaign.
This weekend’s spotlight matchups promise an abundance of excitement, headlined by the now-ranked No. 18 USF (No. 23 in Coaches Poll) making their way to Coral Gables to challenge No. 5 Miami as a 16-point underdog, representing the biggest event ever aired on the CW. If victorious, the Bulls could become the first team since Michigan in the 1985 season to start without a poll presence and secure their first three games against ranked opponents. A win for USF as a 16-point dog would yield bettors who back them on the moneyline along with a rollover into the next bet a staggering profit of over $12,000.
Doc’s Sports provides expert college football predictions for every game featured on our predictions page.
College Football Betting Trends
As we delve early into the 2025 season, home teams have been overpowering with a 146–33 record, yet they maintain a nearly even stance against the spread at 89–87–3. Favorites are performing as anticipated, with a straight-up record of 156–23–0 and a spread record of 91–85–3, delivering only a slight advantage. Home favorites, in particular, have proven formidable with a remarkable 138–15–0 overall record, though they show only a marginally negative return for ATS bettors with a 77–73–3 outcome, underscoring the need to analyze matchups where public funds heavily favor the chalk.
These patterns underline the necessity of context, as major blowouts often cover easily, while tightly contested games frequently miss the mark. Underdogs are currently enjoying a historic surge early in the season, covering the spread at impressive rates, leading to sportsbooks capitalizing on the public’s miscalculations during Week 1, with key upsets in high-stakes matches shifting the betting narrative.
Over/under trends indicate a tendency towards higher scores for several programs, exemplified by Texas Tech, Tennessee, Navy, and Notre Dame, all sitting at 100 percent to the over through their respective opening matches, signaling high-scoring engagements in non-conference bouts. Historical head-to-head series showcase enticing patterns, with over 135 significant trends influencing 2025 results, such as longstanding rivalries where one side consistently covers or instances where defensive styles lead games to frequently fall under the total.
Week 3 Matchup Highlights
Week 3 of the 2025 college football season signifies a pivotal juncture, where some teams conclude non-conference play while others delve deeper into league action. With USF entering the rankings, this weekend now features three ranked-on-ranked clashes that could alter the early playoff landscape: No. 6 Georgia travels to face No. 15 Tennessee, No. 5 Miami welcomes No. 18 South Florida, and No. 8 Notre Dame visits No. 16 Texas A&M. Additional noteworthy matchups comprise No. 12 Clemson at Georgia Tech and the rekindling of the Backyard Brawl between Pitt and West Virginia. Whether it’s a conference opener, a significant non-league contest, or a rivalry with playoff stakes, Week 3 presents a dynamic blend of styles and intensity that will influence the national discourse as fall progresses.
Wisconsin vs. No. 18 Alabama (-20.5/46.5) Sep. 13, Noon ABC
Wisconsin heads to Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog, and I’m backing the Badgers to cover this spread. Under head coach Luke Fickell, Wisconsin’s defense has opened the season with resilience and discipline, positioned well to challenge Alabama’s passing game as the Crimson Tide navigates early-season adjustments following their Week 1 defeat. Conversely, the Badgers adopt a robust, run-dominant strategy fueled by an experienced offensive line and reliable running backs. This approach should enable them to manage the clock, reduce big plays, and maintain closeness in the challenging environment of Bryant-Denny Stadium.
No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 15 Tennessee (+3.5/50) Sep. 13, 3:30 ABC
Georgia comes into Week 3 with a prime opportunity to assert dominance in Knoxville, initially opening as a 7-point favorite on the road against Tennessee, now adjusted to a 3.5-point favor. We were optimistic about the Bulldogs previously, and our confidence has only strengthened. Their control at the line of scrimmage will likely dictate tempo and disrupt the Volunteers’ rhythm within Neyland Stadium. QB Gunnar Stockton continues to lead competent, error-free drives, while Georgia’s defense excels in limiting big plays. Expect the Bulldogs to gradually wear down Tennessee over the course of four quarters, ultimately pulling away for a strong victory that reinforces their supremacy within the SEC.
Florida vs. No. 3 LSU (-9.5/49.5) Sep. 13, 7:30 ABC
This matchup has lost considerable luster following Florida’s setback against USF, a defeat that unveiled significant flaws on both sides of the field. A victory in Death Valley would significantly bolster confidence, yet Billy Napier’s team appears unprepared for the challenge. LSU has kicked off their season with an offensive explosion, relying on Kyren Lacy and an invigorated rushing attack to stretch defensive alignments. Florida’s defensive sluggishness could leave them exposed to LSU’s dynamic playmakers, setting the stage for the Tigers to take control from the outset. A convincing double-digit triumph for Brian Kelly’s squad seems highly probable.
Obtain college football insights on every single game or secure our best premium picks from experts by signing up for your complimentary $60 account with a guarantee.
Source link
