Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez Fight Predictions, UFC Vegas 109 Odds for 08/09/2025

Home » Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez Fight Predictions, UFC Vegas 109 Odds for 08/09/2025

Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez: A Fight Preview

Event: UFC Vegas 109

Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Date: Saturday, August 9, 2025

Andre Fili is set to face off against Christian Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, 2025. The betting odds show Fili at +200, while Rodriguez is favored at -235.

Known as “Touchy,” Andre Fili enters the Octagon with a professional record of 24 victories, 12 defeats, and 1 no contest. The 35-year-old featherweight weighs 145 lbs and stands 5’11” tall, boasting a reach of 74 inches. Christian Rodriguez, on the other hand, measures 5’7″ and also weighs in at 145 lbs. The 27-year-old holds a record of 12 wins and 3 losses, with a reach of 71 inches. In terms of striking, Fili averages 3.84 significant strikes landed per minute, while Rodriguez posts a slightly lower average at 3.63 strikes per minute. Fili has a striking accuracy of 37%, whereas Rodriguez hits with an accuracy of 50%. Regarding damage taken, Fili absorbs 4.15 significant strikes per minute, contrasted with Rodriguez’s 2.66. Fili successfully defends against 51% of significant strikes aimed at him, while Rodriguez deflects 54% of his opponent’s attempts.

UFC predictions for Andre Fili and Christian Rodriguez

UFC Vegas 109 Andre Fili Christian Rodriguez
Opening Odds +200 -235
Record 24-12-0 (1 NC) 12-3-0
Average Fight Time 10:21 12:40
Height 5’11” 5’7″
Weight 145 lbs 145 lbs
Reach 74″ 71″
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.84 3.63
Striking Accuracy 37% 50%

When it comes to grappling, Andre Fili averages 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, achieving a successful takedown rate of 44%. He also defends against 70% of takedown attempts from his opponents. Christian Rodriguez demonstrates similar grappling abilities, securing takedowns 46% of the time while defending against 69% of the takedowns he faces. Fili tends to focus less on submission attempts, averaging 0.2 submissions per 3 rounds, while Rodriguez is more aggressive, averaging 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes.

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In his previous bout, Andre Fili fought Melquizael Costa, unfortunately succumbing to a first-round guillotine choke. Fili landed 7 of his 24 total strikes, while Costa connected with 27 of his 56 strikes. Costa’s striking accuracy stood at 48%. Fili’s significant strike percentage was 29%, with only 4 out of 20 significant strikes aimed at the head connecting. Notably, 96% of Costa’s strikes were at a distance, while all of Fili’s notable strikes also occurred at distance.

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In his last Octagon match, Christian Rodriguez faced Melquizael Costa and lost by unanimous decision after 3 rounds. Costa connected on 29% of the significant strikes he attempted, while Rodriguez was more effective, landing 45% of his strikes. Rodriguez achieved a total of 64 significant strikes out of 98 attempts, with 36 of those directed at the head. Costa managed to hit 65 out of 105 significant strikes during the contest. In total strike count, Costa landed 159 out of 208 thrown, while Rodriguez connected on 77 out of 113.

Noteworthy Fights on the Card

Another exciting matchup to look for is Miles Johns versus Jean Matsumoto. Johns, holding a record of 15-3-0 (1 NC), measures 5’7″ and weighs 135 lbs. The 31-year-old has a reach of 66 inches. His opponent, Matsumoto, comes in at 5’6″ and also competes at 135 lbs, eyeing to improve his record of 16-1-0. The 25-year-old boasts a wingspan of 68 inches. In grappling, Miles Johns averages 0.92 takedowns per 3 rounds, while Jean Matsumoto records 2.73 takedowns in the same frame. On the striking front, Johns connects with 3.16 strikes per minute at an accuracy of 44%. Matsumoto scores higher, landing 5.18 strikes per minute with a 41% accuracy rate.

Additionally, fans can anticipate the clash between Christian Leroy Duncan and Eryk Anders. Anders, aged 38, has a professional record of 17-8-0 (1 NC), weighing in at 185 lbs and standing 6’1″ tall, with a reach of 75 inches. Conversely, Duncan, a 30-year-old measuring 6’2″ and weighing in at 185 lbs, has a record of 11-2-0 and a reach of 79 inches. In terms of takedown defense, Eryk Anders manages to defend 80% of his opponent’s attempts while completing 24% of his own. Duncan has a success rate of 11% for his takedown attempts and a defensive rate of 72%. On the striking statistics, Anders absorbs 4.05 strikes per minute and lands 3.54, while Duncan takes 3.01 strikes and lands 4.75.

Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s highly anticipated UFC bout?

Josh Schonwald’s Prediction: Back Andre Fili (+200)

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