Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Date: Sunday, July 20, 2025
Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Sun
Betting Odds: Baltimore (+106) Tampa Bay (-128)
On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays (50-47) will face the Baltimore Orioles (43-52) at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The betting line presents the Orioles at +106, while the Rays are favored at -128. The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs, with Trevor Rogers and Ryan Pepiot slated to pitch.
The Baltimore Orioles have a slugging percentage of .398, accumulating 831 strikeouts and 264 walks. They have scored 371 RBIs and recorded 760 hits this season, holding a batting average of .239. As a team, they have recorded 150 doubles and 111 home runs, leading to a total of 393 runs and an on-base percentage of .305. The Orioles are averaging 4.1 runs per game, ranking them 21st in the league.
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The Orioles have a K/BB ratio of 2.59 and a WHIP of 1.41. Overall, Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 132 home runs and given up 483 runs (26th in the league), resulting in 877 hits (9.4 per 9 innings) along with 458 earned runs. The team holds an ERA of 4.92 this season, placing them 27th in the league, and has recorded 784 strikeouts while walking 303 batters, with a FIP of 4.46.
This season, Baltimore has sent 336 relief pitchers to the mound. These relievers have inherited 138 runners, with 18.8% scoring. The Orioles have achieved 23 saves this season but have failed to convert on 12 out of 35 save opportunities, leading to a save percentage of 65.7%. The bullpen has recorded 69 holds (2nd in the league) and has appeared in 107 save situations, with 106 instances coming with runners on base.
The Atlanta Braves have 2,512 putouts, 834 assists, and 51 errors, resulting in a .985 fielding percentage—placing them 22nd in professional baseball. The Orioles have managed to convert 67.6% of balls hit into play into outs across 7,536 innings played, ranking them 29th in the league.
Rogers has pitched 445 innings in his career, accumulating 450 strikeouts and an earned run average of 4.14 (205 earned runs). He has a WHIP of 1.361, having allowed 430 hits (8.7 hits per 9 innings) and issued 176 walks. With a career win-loss record of 17-35, Rogers boasts a FIP of 4.08 and has faced 1,932 batters in the majors.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a team on-base percentage of .320 and a batting average of .258 this season. They have struck out 800 times (15th in MLB), with 845 hits, 105 home runs, and 424 RBIs. Their slugging percentage is .405, scoring 4.63 runs per game (9th in MLB). The team has achieved 150 doubles while drawing 282 walks and scoring 449 runs.
Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.203 and a FIP of 4.25 for the season. Their K/BB ratio stands at 8.30 (799 strikeouts against 275 walks). With 762 hits allowed (10th in MLB), they have surrendered 127 home runs and an average of 4.05 runs per 9 innings (10th in the league). The Rays’ staff has conceded 388 runs, holding a season ERA of 3.78 (362 earned runs allowed).
The Rays’ bullpen has entered 37 save situations, converting 21 saves, bringing them to 24th in baseball with a save percentage of 56.8%. They have utilized 301 relievers throughout the season. Their relievers have appeared in 92 high leverage scenarios and 71 times with runners on base, managing a 36.9% inherited score rate out of 103 inherited runners. With 92 save opportunities, Tampa Bay has 54 holds and 16 blown saves.
Across 7,764 innings of defense, the Rays boast a defensive efficiency of 71.4% (5th in professional baseball). They have completed 97 double plays and recorded a .987 fielding percentage (12th in the majors), totalizing 2,588 putouts, 887 assists, and 46 errors this season.
Pepiot (19-16 career win-loss record) holds a 3.32 earned run average, allowing 7.0 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.84, having faced 1,320 hitters in the MLB. He has given up 119 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.139 and a FIP of 3.3. Throughout his career, Pepiot has allowed 250 hits while striking out 332 in 322 innings pitched.
Who will prevail in this exciting MLB matchup against the spread or the moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Recommendation: Select Tampa Bay (-128)
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