Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Event Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Broadcast: DBACKS.TV
Betting Odds: Boston (-150), Arizona (+125)
This Sunday, the Boston Red Sox (78-63) are set to clash with the Arizona Diamondbacks (70-71) at Chase Field. The betting line currently favors Boston at -150, while Arizona is positioned at +125. The total runs expected in this matchup is set at 8.5. Starting pitchers anticipated for the game include Brayan Bello for Boston and Ryne Nelson for Arizona.
The Boston Red Sox are scoring an impressive average of 4.9 runs per game, which ranks them 5th in Major League Baseball. To date, they have accumulated 696 runs along with a team on-base percentage (OBP) of .325. The squad has hit 283 doubles and has connected for 169 home runs, contributing to a total of 664 RBIs and 1,231 hits, resulting in a batting average of .254. The team has posted a slugging percentage of .426 while striking out 1,245 times and earning 456 walks this season.
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Boston’s pitchers have maintained a K/BB ratio of 2.52 and an overall WHIP of 1.29. The pitching staff has conceded 145 home runs and a total of 595 runs, placing them 11th in the league. The Red Sox have allowed 1,165 hits, averaging 8.3 hits per 9 innings, with 524 earned runs contributing to a team ERA of 3.73 (5th in MLB). Their pitchers have achieved a total of 1,166 strikeouts and allowed 462 walks, with a collective FIP of 4.04 this season.
The Red Sox have utilized 462 relief pitchers, with the bullpen inheriting 187 base runners annually—of which 32.6% have scored. This unit has tallied 40 saves out of 64 opportunities, resulting in a save rate of 62.5%. In total, the relievers have been called upon in 142 save situations, achieving 76 holds (ranking 18th in MLB). The Red Sox pitching staff has dealt with runners on base 139 times and encountered 169 high-leverage situations this season.
Boasting a 69.2% conversion rate of balls in play into outs, the Red Sox sit at 21st in defensive efficiency with a total of 11,367 innings played. With 3,789 putouts, 1,289 assists, and 105 errors, their fielding percentage rests at .980, positioning them 30th in MLB, having executed 115 double plays.
Brayan Bello has pitched a total of 522 innings in his MLB career, recording 452 strikeouts. With a career win-loss record of 39-33, he holds a FIP of 3.99 and has faced 2,250 batters. Bello’s earned run average stands at 4.05 (235 earned runs) with a WHIP reading of 1.365, allowing 527 hits at a rate of 9.1 hits per 9 innings and 186 walks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, averaging 4.91 runs per game (6th in MLB), have a team slugging percentage of .436. This season, they have tallied 240 doubles and have reached base 468 times, leading to 692 runs scored. The Diamondbacks have hit 194 home runs and driven in 676 RBIs, while their strikeouts tally stands at 1,144 (19th in baseball) with 1,189 hits. Their on-base percentage is .322, and they boast a team batting average of .249 this year.
As a pitching staff, the Diamondbacks have a WHIP of 1.326 and a collective FIP of 4.26. They rank 24th in MLB for total hits allowed, having surrendered 1,225 hits and 673 runs, yielding a team ERA of 4.45 (621 earned runs). The K/BB ratio of the team is 8.00 (1,122 strikeouts to 440 walks), allowing 167 home runs and giving up 4.83 runs per 9 innings (23rd in MLB).
In save opportunities, Arizona’s relievers have entered 66 times, successfully securing 40 saves, which ranks them 23rd in Major League Baseball with a save rate of 60.6%. Over the season, they have deployed 431 relief pitchers, managing 141 high-leverage situations and 125 instances with runners on base. Their inherited runner scoring percentage stands at 30.6% from 160 inherited runners. With 148 save opportunities, the Diamondbacks have achieved 78 holds along with 26 blown saves.
Defensively, the Diamondbacks have turned 110 double plays with a fielding percentage of .986 (15th in MLB). They have recorded 1,269 assists, 69 errors, and 3,767 putouts. Within their 11,301 innings played, their defensive efficiency is noted at 69.4% (19th in MLB).
Throughout his MLB career, Ryne Nelson has given up 428 hits while accumulating 353 strikeouts over 444 innings. With a career record of 26-18, he maintains a 4.28 ERA and concedes 8.7 hits per 9 innings. He has allowed 211 earned runs, holding a WHIP of 1.232 and a FIP of 4.2, with a K/BB ratio of 2.97 across 1,846 batters faced.
Which team will come out on top in today’s MLB matchup—will it be against the spread or the moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Recommendation: Choose Boston (-150)
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