Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins
Date: Monday, July 28, 2025
Venue: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Broadcast: Twins.TV
Betting Odds: Boston (-160) Minnesota (+132)
This game at Target Field pits the Minnesota Twins (49-53) against the Boston Red Sox (55-49) on Monday. The Red Sox are favored at -160, while the Twins are listed at +132. The over/under total for this matchup stands at 9 runs, with Richard Fitts and Simeon Woods Richardson expected to take the mound.
As a collective unit, the Boston Red Sox are scoring an impressive 4.9 runs per game, ranking them 5th in the league. They have accumulated 510 runs and boast a team on-base percentage of .322. The Red Sox have also hit 209 doubles and connected for 129 home runs, along with 489 RBIs from 902 hits this season, while their batting average stands at .252. Their slugging percentage is .427, with 948 strikeouts and 337 walks to date.
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The Red Sox have a stellar team ERA of 3.79 this year, placing them 9th in the league, having fanned 865 batters. Their pitching staff has allowed 104 home runs and given up 456 runs overall (ranking 21st in MLB). They’ve walked 337 hitters, with a FIP of 3.91. Boston has conceded 866 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) and 392 earned runs, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.57 and a WHIP of 1.29.
So far, 338 relief pitchers have taken the mound for the Red Sox, who have inherited 138 base runners this season, with 33.3% of those crossing home. The bullpen has recorded 27 saves out of 47 opportunities, resulting in a save percentage of 57.4%. Additionally, relief pitchers have secured 55 holds this season (20th in MLB) and been placed in 104 save situations, entering with runners on base 105 times, with 131 high-leverage appearances.
The Baltimore Orioles have accumulated 2,795 putouts this season, alongside 962 assists and 82 errors, giving them a fielding percentage of .979, which ranks 29th in baseball. The Red Sox have converted 68.8% of balls in play into outs across 8,385 innings, placing them at 25th in the league.
Fitts has thrown for 57 innings, accumulating 41 strikeouts in his professional career. He holds a career record of 1-5 with a FIP of 3.72, facing 245 batters in the majors. His ERA stands at 3.78 (24 earned runs allowed), with a WHIP of 1.276, having allowed 56 hits (8.8 hits per 9 innings) and 17 walks.
The Minnesota Twins have hit 120 home runs this season and garnered 415 RBIs. They’ve recorded 162 doubles and drawn 302 walks while scoring 434 runs. The Twins have an OBP of .312 and a batting average of .241 this year. Their SLG percentage is at .401, registering 4.25 runs per game (19th in the league). They’ve been struck out 847 times (17th in the league), with a total of 824 hits.
The Minnesota pitching staff has surrendered 443 runs this season, maintaining an ERA of 4.17 (414 earned runs). They have given up 111 bombs, yielding 4.46 runs per 9 innings (20th in MLB). The Twins hold a team WHIP of 1.261 and a FIP of 3.80 this season, boasting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.70 (866 strikeouts against 265 walks) and ranking 20th in total hits allowed with 861.
The Minnesota bullpen has a score percentage of 35.6% for 104 inherited runners, stepping onto the mound 123 times in high-leverage situations, including 73 times with runners on base. In 107 save opportunities, the Twins have achieved 71 holds and fallen short 15 times, marking a save percentage of 55.9% as they’ve called up 350 relievers this season. The Twins have converted 19 saves out of 34 chances.
Over 8,043 innings, the Twins’ defensive efficiency stands at 68.9% (23rd in MLB). With 52 double plays turned, they have a fielding percentage of .986 (14th in the majors), tallying 749 assists, 48 errors, and 2,681 putouts throughout the campaign.
In his professional career, Woods Richardson has allowed 206 hits while accumulating 189 strikeouts over 219 innings pitched. He has given up a total of 104 earned runs, holding a WHIP of 1.333 and a FIP of 4.2. His K/BB ratio is 2.20, facing 939 batters during his career. Woods Richardson has a 10-10 record and an earned run average of 4.27, yielding 8.5 hits per nine innings.
Who will secure the win in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Prediction: Back Boston (-160)
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