Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: NBC Sports Philadelphia
Betting Odds: Boston (+126) Philadelphia (-152)
The Boston Red Sox, currently at 54-48, are heading to Citizens Bank Park for a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who boast a record of 57-43. With the Red Sox positioned at +126 and the Phillies at -152, the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Anticipated starting pitchers include Lucas Giolito and Jesus Luzardo.
The Boston Red Sox are averaging 4.9 runs per game, ranking them 5th in Major League Baseball. They’ve accumulated 500 runs with an on-base percentage (OBP) of .324. Collectively, the Red Sox have recorded 205 doubles and launched 126 home runs. They have totaled 479 RBIs and achieved 891 hits this season, holding a batting average of .254. Their slugging percentage stands at .429, with 920 strikeouts and 331 walks recorded throughout the season.
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As a pitching unit, the Red Sox maintain a respectable earned run average (ERA) of 3.77, placing them 10th in MLB. Their pitchers have struck out 850 opposing players while allowing 97 home runs and yielding a total of 444 runs (ranked 21st). Boston’s staff has walked 334 batters, resulting in a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.85. This season, they have given up 848 hits (averaging 8.4 hits per 9 innings) and 382 earned runs, with a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and a collective WHIP of 1.30.
The Red Sox have sent 328 relief pitchers to the mound and have inherited 135 base runners, with 34.1% crossing the plate. With 26 saves this season, they have not converted 18 out of 44 save opportunities. The bullpen has a save rate of 59.1% across 99 situations and recorded 53 holds (18th in MLB). Notably, relief pitchers have faced runners on base 100 times and have made 125 appearances in high-leverage scenarios.
The Baltimore Orioles currently have tallied 2,738 putouts, 943 assists, and 81 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .978 (29th in the majors), with 85 double plays executed. In 8,214 innings played, the Red Sox have converted 68.6% of balls in play into outs, ranking them 25th in professional baseball.
Giolito, with a career record of 67-64, possesses a FIP of 4.31 and has faced 4,579 batters. Throughout his career, he has allowed 959 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and issued 408 walks. His earned run average is 4.37 (530 total earned runs), and he holds a WHIP of 1.254. Giolito has pitched for 1,090 innings, recording 1,147 strikeouts.
The Philadelphia Phillies demonstrate an on-base percentage of .328 and a batting average of .254 this season. They have struck out 794 times (21st in MLB) and amassed 862 hits, with 108 home runs and 435 RBIs. Their slugging percentage is .404, averaging 4.57 runs per game (12th in MLB). The Phillies have also landed 159 doubles, drawn 346 walks, and scored a total of 457 runs.
As a pitching staff, the Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.262 and a FIP of 3.60. With a current K/BB ratio of 9.30 (924 strikeouts versus 291 walks), they rank 17th in total hits surrendered (832). The team has allowed 103 home runs and gives up 4.00 runs per 9 innings (6th in MLB). The Philadelphia bullpen has enforced 396 runs this season, with a team ERA of 3.71 (conceding 367 earned runs).
This season, the Phillies have been in 90 save situations, accruing 45 holds and suffering 17 blown saves. Their relievers have encountered 44 save opportunities, securing 27 saves. Additionally, the bullpen has participated in 106 high-leverage instances and faced runners on base 64 times. The inherited scoring rate stands at 34.0% for 94 inherited runners, ranking them 17th with a save percentage of 61.4%, employing 309 relievers this season.
Defensively, the Philadelphia Phillies have executed 71 double plays, holding a fielding rate of .989 (3rd in the majors), with 861 assists, 38 errors, and 2,671 putouts in 8,013 innings played. Their defensive efficiency stands at 68.6% (24th in professional baseball).
Luzardo has allowed 579 hits in his career, collecting 688 strikeouts over 621 innings. With a career record of 34-39, Luzardo holds an earned run average of 4.29, offering an 8.4 hits per nine innings average. He has relinquished 296 earned runs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.283 and a FIP of 4.2, substantiated by a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.16 after facing 2,615 hitters in his career.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB game against the spread or moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Recommendation: Bet on Boston (+126)
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