Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Predictions, Odds for UFC Rio on 10/11/2025

Home » Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Predictions, Odds for UFC Rio on 10/11/2025

  • Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot
  • UFC Rio Event
  • Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  • Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025

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Charles Oliveira is set to face off against Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The initial odds show Oliveira at -104 and Gamrot at -116.

Charles “Do Bronxs” Oliveira enters the Octagon with a record of 35 wins, 11 losses, and 0 draws (1 NC). The 35-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5’10” tall, with a reach of 74″. On the other hand, Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot, also 5’10”, weighs in at 155 lbs and carries a professional record of 25 wins, 3 losses, and 0 draws (1 NC). Gamrot, aged 34, has a reach of 70″. In terms of striking, Oliveira lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute, whereas Gamrot lands 3.35. Oliveira has a striking accuracy of 55%, while Gamrot achieves 51%. When it comes to defense, Oliveira absorbs 3.26 significant strikes per minute, while Gamrot allows only 3.04. Oliveira successfully defends against 48% of the strikes thrown at him, and Gamrot manages a defense rate of 59%.

UFC Predictions and Best Bets for Charles Oliveira
UFC Rio Event Charles Oliveira Mateusz Gamrot
Opening Odds -104 -116
Current Record 35-11-0 (1 NC) 25-3-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Duration 7:30 12:32
Height 5’10” 5’10”
Weight 155 lbs 155 lbs
Reach 74″ 70″
Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.41 3.35
Striking Accuracy 55% 51%

In terms of grappling, Charles Oliveira’s wrestling skills are not as prominent; he averages 2.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, converting only 39% of his takedown attempts. He successfully defends against 56% of takedowns directed at him. In contrast, Gamrot is more effective with his takedowns, succeeding on 36% of attempts and defending 90% of the takedowns against him. When it comes to submissions, Oliveira is more aggressive, attempting 2.6 submissions per 15 minutes, while Gamrot averages just 0.1 submission attempts every three rounds.

In Oliveira’s recent fight, he squared off against Ilia Topuria but unfortunately lost by knockout in the first round, getting caught by a punch. Topuria successfully landed 24 out of 32 strikes, while Oliveira managed to connect on 10 of his 18 attempts. Specifically, Topuria achieved an impressive 72% accuracy with significant strikes, landing 21 of 29. Oliveira finished with a 56% accuracy, hitting 9 out of 16. The majority of their exchanges occurred at a distance, with Topuria connecting on 85% of his strikes from that range and Oliveira connecting on 88% of his attempts.

Mateusz Gamrot’s last fight was against Ludovit Klein, where he prevailed by unanimous decision after three rounds. Klein achieved a notable 95% accuracy with significant strikes attempted from a distance, while Gamrot managed to connect on 58% of his own significant strikes. Overall, Gamrot landed 59% of his significant attempts, totaling 65 out of 110, with 53 of those going to the head. Klein’s performance reflected 24 out of 74 significant strikes landed, while he attempted 49 strikes directed at the head, only landing 10. In terms of total strikes, Klein managed 85 out of 145, while Gamrot connected on 142 of 224 thrown.

Other Key Fights to Watch

Don’t miss the clash between Deiveson Figueiredo and Montel Jackson. Figueiredo brings a record of 24 wins, 5 losses, and 1 draw into the ring. The 37-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands 5’5″, with a reach of 68″. Jackson is taller at 5’10”, weighing in at 135 lbs as well, and boasts a record of 15 wins and 2 losses. In terms of grappling, Figueiredo averages 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Jackson is ahead with an average of 3.24. For striking, Figueiredo lands 2.82 strikes per minute with a 54% accuracy rate, compared to Jackson’s 3.22 strikes landed per minute and 53% accuracy.

Another exciting matchup features Joel Alvarez squaring off against Vicente Luque. Luque, with a record of 23 wins, 11 losses, and 1 draw, measures 5’11” and weighs 170 lbs, sporting a reach of 75″. Alvarez, on the other hand, is 6’3″ tall, weighs 155 lbs, and follows a record of 22 wins and 3 losses, with a reach of 77″. In grappling, Luque successfully defends 61% of takedown attempts against him and completes 51% of his own takedowns, while Alvarez struggles with finishing takedowns, succeeding on just 0% and defending 40% of those against him. When striking, Luque absorbs 5.25 strikes per minute while delivering 5.02, while Alvarez takes 3.32 strikes per minute and lands 4.51.

Who do you think will secure victory in tonight’s UFC battle against the spread?

Prediction: Back Charles Oliveira (-104)

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Pick: Charles Oliveira (-104)
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