Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio
Betting Odds: Chicago (-144) Cincinnati (+120)
The Cincinnati Reds (76-76) are set to face off against the Chicago Cubs (88-64) at Great American Ball Park this Saturday. The odds indicate Chicago as the favorite at -144, while Cincinnati comes in at +120. The total runs over/under is set at 8.5. Javier Assad and Zack Littell are poised to take the mound for their respective teams.
The Cubs currently hold a slugging percentage of .428 and have recorded 1,190 strikeouts, alongside 528 walks. With 724 RBIs and 1,291 hits to their name, the team’s batting average is .250. Chicago has also recorded 251 doubles and launched 205 home runs this season, scoring a total of 743 runs with an on-base percentage of .322. Averaging 4.9 runs per game, the Cubs rank 6th in the league.
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With a K/BB ratio standing at 3.04, the pitching team has a WHIP of 1.19. Cubs pitchers have surrendered 185 home runs and a total of 610 runs (5th in MLB). This season, they’ve allowed 1,217 hits (8.1 per 9 innings) and 572 earned runs, leading to a team ERA of 3.82 (7th in the league) while fanning 1,175 batters. Their collective walk ratio stands at 386, giving them a FIP of 4.16.
Throughout the season, Cubs pitchers have faced runners in scoring positions 96 times and participated in 153 high leverage situations. With 106 holds (2nd in the league), their relief pitchers have a save conversion rate of 68.9%, having entered 170 save opportunities. By securing 42 saves out of 61 attempts, they’ve inherited 135 runners, with 32.6% scoring. To date, 496 pitchers have taken the mound in relief for Chicago.
Defensively, Chicago has converted 71.7% of balls in play into outs across 12,141 innings, ranking 3rd in MLB. The team has recorded 4,047 putouts, 1,274 assists, and 58 errors, boasting a fielding percentage of .989, placing them 5th overall and successfully executing 115 double plays.
Javier Assad has pitched 321 innings, striking out 263 batters with an overall career record of 17-12. Holding a FIP of 3.42, he has faced 1,369 batters, compiling an ERA of 3.47 (124 earned runs) and a WHIP of 1.342. Through this, he has given up 298 hits (8.3 hits per 9 innings) with 133 walks.
The Cincinnati Reds have noted a team OBP of .316 and batting average of .246 this season. With 1,321 strikeouts (ranking 9th in MLB) and 1,259 hits, they’ve hit 153 home runs and driven in 644 runs. Their slugging percentage stands at .391, scoring an average of 4.49 runs per game (13th in the league), alongside 238 doubles and 500 walks.
The Reds pitching unit has a WHIP of 1.241 and FIP of 4.19. Their strikeout to walk ratio is currently at 8.60 (1,287 strikeouts against 469 walks). They rank 8th in total hits allowed, surrendering 1,199 and yielding 183 home runs while maintaining an average of 4.39 runs allowed per 9 innings (16th in the league). Overall, the Reds have allowed 656 runs this season with a team ERA of 3.97 (593 earned runs).
In save situations, the Reds have had 152 opportunities, resulting in 92 holds and 22 blown saves. Their bullpen has faced 57 save chances, converting 35 into saves. They have entered 159 high leverage situations and 139 scenarios with runners on base. The inherited score rate for their relievers stands at 33.3% from 207 inherited runners, ranking them 19th in MLB with a save rate of 61.4%, using a total of 517 relief pitchers this season.
In their 12,096 innings, the Reds have achieved a defensive efficiency of 70.9% (5th in MLB), noting 96 double plays and a fielding percentage of .984 (23rd in baseball) with 1,166 assists, 84 errors, and 4,032 putouts.
Zack Littell has given up 591 hits while recording 489 strikeouts over 593 innings. With a total of 257 earned runs allowed, he holds a WHIP of 1.219 and a FIP of 3.8. His career strikeout to walk ratio is 3.70 against 2,475 batters faced. With a career record of 33-29, Littell maintains an earned run average of 3.90 with 9.0 hits allowed per nine innings.
Which team will claim victory in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?
Pick from Tony Sink: Bet on Cincinnati (+120)
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