- Matchup: Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins
- Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
- Venue: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.TV
- Odds/Point Spread: Colorado (+125), Miami (-145)
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The Colorado Rockies (43-119 last season) are set to visit LoanDepot Park on Saturday to face off against the Miami Marlins (79-83 last season). The betting odds for this matchup place Colorado at +125 and Miami at -145. The over/under for total runs is set at 9. The starting pitchers for this game will be Michael Lorenzen and Eury Perez.
Last season, the Colorado Rockies struggled offensively, averaging just 3.7 runs per game, ranking them 29th in the league. They accumulated 597 runs, achieving an on-base percentage of .293. The team recorded 253 doubles and launched 160 home runs, totaling 581 runs batted in and 1,282 hits with a batting average of .237. Their slugging percentage was .386, but they struck out 1,531 times while drawing only 395 walks.
The Rockies’ pitching staff posted a dismal team earned run average of 5.97, placing them last in the league, with 1,093 strikeouts. Their pitchers allowed 251 home runs and surrendered a staggering 1,021 runs. They also issued 554 walks, finishing the season with a team Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 5.24. Colorado’s hurlers gave up 1,673 hits, averaging 10.7 hits per nine innings, while their earned runs totaled 933. The strikeout-to-walk ratio was 1.97, with a collective WHIP of 1.58.
Last year, Rockies relievers often faced tough situations; they entered games with runners on base 161 times and were involved in 139 high-leverage scenarios. As a team, they achieved only 61 holds (last in MLB) and a save percentage of 53.7% from 115 save opportunities, converting 29 saves but failing to secure 25 saves out of 54 attempts. The bullpen inherited 278 runners, with 35.3% of those scoring. In total, the Rockies used 531 relief pitchers last year.
Defensively, the Rockies turned only 66.1% of batted balls into outs over 12,666 innings, positioning them last in professional baseball. The Cleveland Guardians had 4,222 putouts in the same period, with 1,465 assists and 110 errors, earning a fielding percentage of .983, which ranked them 27th overall, along with 156 double plays.
Michael Lorenzen, with a career record of 54-55, has a FIP of 4.03 from facing 4,214 hitters. He allowed 921 hits (8.3 hits per nine innings) and issued 387 walks, carrying an earned run average of 4.09 (452 earned runs allowed). His career WHIP stands at 1.314, with 995 innings pitched and 826 strikeouts.
On the other hand, the Miami Marlins achieved a team on-base percentage of .314 and a batting average of .250 last season. They struck out 1,247 times (27th in the league) and registered 1,388 hits. The Marlins hit 154 home runs and amassed 677 RBIs, finishing with a slugging percentage of .393 and averaging 4.38 runs per game (16th in the league). They also recorded 272 doubles and drew 482 walks, leading to a total of 709 runs.
As a pitching unit, the Marlins completed the season with a team WHIP of 1.305 and a FIP of 4.34. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio was 8.10 (1,294 strikeouts against 507 walks). They allowed 1,376 hits, yielding 199 home runs and surrendering 4.98 runs per nine innings (26th in MLB), resulting in 798 total runs and a team ERA of 4.60.
The Marlins’ bullpen had an inherited runner scoring rate of 30.5% out of 190 inherited baserunners. Their relievers entered 169 games in high-pressure situations and pitched with runners on base on 133 occasions. Over the course of the season, the Marlins had 149 save situations and achieved 85 holds, with 22 blown saves. They ranked 15th in save percentage, converting 64.5% of save opportunities, while employing 515 relief pitchers throughout the year. Miami capitalized on 62 save opportunities, collecting 40 saves in total.
Defensively, the Marlins executed 107 double plays and finished with a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in MLB). They recorded 1,383 assists, made 85 errors, and recorded 4,330 putouts over 12,990 innings, maintaining a defensive efficiency of 70.0% (15th in the league).
Eury Perez has faced 759 hitters in his MLB career, allowing 140 hits and recording 213 strikeouts in 186 innings pitched. Perez, who holds a win-loss record of 12-12, boasts a 3.72 earned run average and allows 6.8 hits per nine innings, giving up a total of 77 earned runs. He maintains a WHIP of 1.090 and a FIP of 3.7, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.38.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB showdown, whether against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Back Miami (-145)
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