Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Date: Monday, July 21, 2025
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast: SportsNet Pittsburgh
Odds: Detroit (-145) vs. Pittsburgh (+125)
On Monday, the Pittsburgh Pirates (39-58) will host the Detroit Tigers (59-38) at PNC Park. The betting odds favor Detroit at -145, while Pittsburgh is positioned at +125. The over/under for this game is set at 8 runs, with Casey Mize and Mitch Keller taking the mound.
The Tigers have registered 153 doubles and 124 home runs this season. They boast a slugging percentage of .425, having struck out 848 times while drawing 317 walks. As a collective, the Detroit Tigers average 5.0 runs per game, placing them 6th in the league. They have accumulated 463 RBIs and 825 hits, with a team batting average of .252. They have scored a total of 482 runs and hold a team on-base percentage (OBP) of .324.
Detroit’s pitching staff has a team ERA of 3.69, ranking 9th in the MLB, with 820 strikeouts achieved this season. They have allowed 105 home runs and given up 395 runs overall (14th in the league). This unit has issued 283 walks, and their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) sits at 3.88. Detroit has permitted 777 hits, averaging 8.1 hits per 9 innings, and their earned run tally stands at 354. They have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.90 and a combined WHIP of 1.23.
The Tigers’ bullpen has entered 110 games with runners on base and faced 83 high-leverage situations. This relief unit has recorded 50 holds (21st in MLB) with a 67.5% save rate, completing 27 saves out of 40 opportunities, while blowing 13 saves. They have inherited 149 runners this season, with 26.8% resulting in earned runs. Over the course of the year, Detroit has utilized 303 bullpen pitchers.
By collecting 2,590 putouts, with an additional 834 assists and 46 errors, the Tigers boast a fielding percentage of .987, ranking them 14th in professional baseball. They have successfully converted 70.3% of plays into outs over 7,770 innings, placing 13th in the majors.
Mize has a career record of 18-22, holding a FIP of 4.02 and has faced 1,611 batters. He has allowed 379 hits (9.0 hits per nine innings) and issued 107 walks. His earned run average is 4.08 (172 earned runs), and he holds a career WHIP of 1.282. With 379 innings pitched, he has secured 303 strikeouts throughout his professional career.
The Pirates have a slugging percentage of .339, averaging 3.36 runs per game (30th in the league). They have recorded 126 doubles, drawn 303 walks, and scored 326 runs. Pittsburgh has hit 66 home runs and registered 315 runs batted in, with 845 strikeouts (6th in MLB) and 736 hits. Their team OBP is .300, supported by a batting average of .230 so far this season.
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.203 and a FIP of 3.90. Their K/BB ratio stands at 7.60 (720 strikeouts against 278 walks), ranking 7th in total hits allowed with 748. They have surrendered 92 home runs while allowing 4.00 runs per 9 innings (8th in MLB), resulting in an ERA of 3.73 (354 earned runs). The Pirates have amassed 379 runs this season.
In 79 save opportunities, Pittsburgh has recorded 43 holds and experienced 15 blown saves. Their relievers have been called upon for 34 saves, successfully converting 19 of those chances. The bullpen has participated in 98 high-pressure situations, with 89 instances involving runners on base. Pittsburgh’s relievers have inherited 140 runners, with a scoring percentage of 32.9%. They currently rank 26th in save percentage at 55.9%, utilizing 296 bullpen pitchers this season.
Defensively, the Pirates have achieved a rate of 71.7% efficiency (2nd in pro baseball) over 7,683 innings played. They have executed 77 double plays with a fielding percentage of .987 (10th in MLB). This season, the Pirates report 832 assists, 44 errors, and 2,561 putouts.
Keller has surrendered 852 hits in his professional career along with 779 strikeouts over 820 innings pitched. He has allowed a total of 404 earned runs and holds a WHIP of 1.374, with a FIP of 4.40. His K/BB ratio is 2.83, having faced 3,562 hitters throughout his MLB tenure. Keller holds a career record of 39-60, with an earned run average of 4.43 and a total of 9.3 hits allowed per nine innings.
Which team will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB showdown—will it be against the spread or the moneyline?
Josh Schonwald’s Prediction: Take Pittsburgh (+125)
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