- Matchup: Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
- Event Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcasting: ESPN
- Point Spread: Patriots favored by 3 points
- Over/Under Total: 40.5 points
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The New England Patriots (14-3) will clash with the Houston Texans (12-5) at Gillette Stadium this Sunday for an AFC Divisional Playoff showdown. The Texans are underdogs by 3 points according to sportsbooks, with the total set at 40.5.
The Houston Texans enter this contest boasting a record of 12-5 for the season. In their latest outing, they triumphed over the Pittsburgh Steelers, finishing strong at 30-6. Quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 21 of 32 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown, achieving a QB rating of 86.7 alongside one interception. Christian Kirk showcased his skills with 8 catches for 144 yards, averaging 18.0 yards per reception. On the ground, Woody Marks led the rushing attack with 19 carries for 112 yards, averaging an impressive 5.9 yards per carry. Overall, the Texans executed 63 plays, garnering a total of 408 yards. They rushed the ball 31 times for 164 yards, equating to an average of 5.3 yards per carry. Defensively, the Texans allowed 63 yards on 18 rush attempts (3.5 yards per carry) and 18 completions for 112 yards with a completion rate of 52.9%.
In terms of offensive scoring, the Texans average 23.8 points per game, ranking them in the mid-tier of the league. Their rushing offense averages 108.9 yards per game, placing them 22nd overall. The Texans have amassed a total of 5,559 offensive yards this season, achieving 184 first downs and suffering from 118 penalties resulting in 989 yards lost. With 12 total turnovers (9 interceptions and 3 fumbles), they have successfully recorded 24 passing touchdowns alongside 9 rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, the Texans are among the elite teams, allowing just 17.4 points per game. They give up an average of 4.0 yards per rush and 93.7 rushing yards per game. In the aerial game, they have relinquished 3,120 passing yards, ranking 6th in the NFL, with 183.5 passing yards allowed per game and a completion percentage of 59.3%. Overall, they lead the league with an average of 277.2 yards given up per game, allowing 20 passing touchdowns and 13 rushing touchdowns, recording a total of 1,593 rushing yards given up throughout 17 matchups this season.
The New England Patriots come into this game with an impressive 14-3 record this season. Their previous game ended with a 16-3 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Drake Maye completed 17 of 29 passes for 268 yards and one touchdown, achieving a passer rating of 86.6 with one interception, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. He also contributed on the ground with 10 carries for 66 yards, averaging 6.6 yards. Kayshon Boutte was a top target with 4 receptions for 66 yards, averaging 16.5 yards per catch. New England averaged 5.0 yards per rush, totaling 146 yards on 29 attempts, and finished the game with 381 total yards on 59 plays (6.5 yards per play). The Patriots’ defense allowed a completion percentage of 61.3%, giving up 120 passing yards on 19 of 31 attempts and granting 87 rushing yards on 22 attempts (4.0 yards per carry).
New England boasts an average of 379.4 total yards per game, placing them 3rd in the league. The rushing offense averages 128.9 yards per game, with a total of 2,191 rushing yards collected this season. The Patriots have thrown 8 interceptions and lost 8 fumbles, recording 206 total first downs. Their offense has incurred 854 yards in penalties, putting them 26th in helping opponents. The Patriots have thrown for 4,258 yards this season, averaging 250.5 passing yards per game, positioning them 4th in the NFL. They currently rank 2nd in scoring, averaging 28.8 points per game.
The Patriots’ defense has allowed 25 passing touchdowns and gives up 193.5 passing yards per game, ranking 9th in the league. They have conceded 1,729 rushing yards this season (101.7 yards per game) along with 11 rushing touchdowns scored against them. The unit has forced 19 turnovers (10 interceptions and 9 fumbles) throughout the year, allowing a total of 320 points. Their defense’s workload is substantial, with 973 plays logged, placing them 3rd in the NFL. They allow an average of 18.8 points per game, ranking them 4th overall.
Who will come out on top in the Texans vs. Patriots NFL match against the spread?
Prediction: Take the Texans +3
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