- Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay
- UFC 325
- Qudos Bank Arena, South Wales, Australia
- Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
This page may include affiliate links at no extra cost to you, thanks for your support.
Keiichiro Nakamura is set to clash with Sebastian Szalay at UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, 2026. The initial betting odds indicate Nakamura at +120 and Szalay at -140.
Nakamura, aiming to improve his record of 7 wins and 1 loss, is a 27-year-old fighter weighing 145 lbs and standing 5’10” tall, with a reach of 70″. On the other hand, 31-year-old Sebastian “Seb” Szalay, also weighing 145 lbs, stands 5’6″ with a reach of 66″. Szalay seeks to enhance his record of 10-1-0. In terms of strikes, Nakamura averages 5.22 significant strikes landed per minute, while Szalay lands approximately 4.25. Nakamura has a striking accuracy of 43%, compared to Szalay’s 44%. When it comes to defense, Nakamura absorbs around 3.39 significant strikes per minute, while Szalay has a lower absorption rate at 1.27. Furthermore, Nakamura successfully defends against 66% of strikes aimed at him, while Szalay has a striking defense rate of 71%.
| UFC 325 | Keiichiro Nakamura | Sebastian Szalay |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +120 | -140 |
| Record | 7-1-0 | 10-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:12 | 7:54 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’6″ |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 70″ | 66″ |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.22 | 4.25 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 44% |
In terms of wrestling, Nakamura appears to be less proficient, averaging a mere 0.20 takedowns every 15 minutes. He succeeds in taking opponents down 15% of the time and successfully defends against 83% of takedown attempts. Conversely, Szalay lands 15% of his takedown attempts and defends against 84% of his opponents’ attempts. Regarding submissions, Nakamura attempts 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes, while Szalay targets approximately 0.7 submissions per three rounds.
Nakamura’s most recent bout was against Kaiwen, where he claimed victory through unanimous decision in round 3. In that fight, Kaiwen managed to land 57 of his 167 attempted strikes, while Nakamura successfully landed 93 of 226 strikes. Kaiwen had a striking accuracy of 30% with 48 out of 155 significant strikes successfully landed, hitting 40 out of 136 aimed at the head. Nakamura, however, achieved a landing percentage of 40%, connecting on 88 of 215 significant strikes, with 62 targeted at the head. An impressive 91% of Kaiwen’s significant connects and 93% of Nakamura’s occurred at range.
In his last match, Sebastian Szalay faced off against ChangMin Yoon, securing a victory with a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Yoon achieved 100% of his significant strikes at a distance, while Szalay landed 40% of his significant strikes attempted at range. Szalay was effective, landing 66% of his significant strikes, totaling 10 out of 15, with all 10 directed at the head. Yoon landed 3 of his 4 significant strikes in that match, including 2 out of 3 aimed at the head. Overall, Yoon attempted 4 total strikes, while Szalay connected on 17 out of 22 total strikes.
Noteworthy Fights on the Card
Another match to watch is Rangbo Sulang versus Lawrence Lui. Sulang enters with a record of 10-3-0 at 135 lbs and stands 5’9″. As a southpaw, he boasts a reach of 66″. Lui, fighting at 135 lbs, is 5’7″ and holds an impressive 7-1-0 record. At 29 years old, Lui has a reach of 72″. In terms of takedown efficiency, Sulang secures a takedown 0.90 times per 15 minutes, while Lui achieves 0.40 takedowns per three rounds. Sulang connects with an average of 4.15 significant strikes per minute, landing 51% of his attempts, whereas Lui manages 3.90 strikes per minute with 43% accuracy.
Another exciting matchup features Diego Lopes going head-to-head with Alexander Volkanovski. Volkanovski enters with a record of 27-4-0, weighing 145 lbs and standing at 5’6″ with a reach of 71″. Lopes stands 5’11”, also competing at 145 lbs, with a career record of 27-7-0. In grappling stats, Volkanovski successfully defends 70% of takedown attempts and completes 34% of his own. Lopes lands takedowns with a success rate of 55% and stops 67% of attempted takedowns from his opponents. In striking, Volkanovski absorbs 3.36 strikes per minute while landing 6.18, while Lopes absorbs 4.72 and deals out 4.10 per minute.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s UFC battle?
Josh Schonwald’s Prediction: Bet on Sebastian Szalay (-140)
Some links on this page are affiliate links. If you sign up or make a purchase through them, we may earn a small commission always at no extra cost to you. Thanks for helping us keep this site running.
