- Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots
- Scheduled Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcast: NBC
- Betting Odds: Patriots favored by 3.5 points
- Over/Under Total: 46 points
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This Sunday, Gillette Stadium will host an exciting AFC Wild Card clash between the New England Patriots (14-3) and the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6). The Chargers enter this matchup as 3.5-point underdogs according to betting lines, while the total stands at 46 points.
The Chargers come into this game with an 11-6 record. In their last outing, they faced the Denver Broncos and experienced a tough defeat, losing 19-3. Quarterback Trey Lance struggled, completing 20 of 44 passes for just 136 yards and a disappointing quarterback rating of 43.4, along with one interception. On the ground, he led the team with 69 rushing yards on 9 attempts, averaging 7.7 yards per carry. Keenan Allen was the primary target in the passing game, achieving 36 yards on 7 receptions for an average of 5.1 yards per catch. In total, the Chargers managed 113 rushing yards on 21 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per run. They ran a total of 65 plays, accumulating 217 yards. Defensively, Los Angeles allowed 14 completions on 23 attempts, yielding 124 passing yards for a completion percentage of 60.9%. On the ground, they conceded 116 yards on 31 carries, which translates to 3.7 yards per attempt.
Offensively, the Chargers are averaging 21.6 points per game, ranking them just outside the top ten. They have amassed 121.6 rushing yards per game, placing them 12th overall in the league. This season, Los Angeles has accumulated a total of 5,675 yards, gained 185 first downs, and has been penalized 104 times for 787 yards. They’ve committed 21 turnovers (14 interceptions and 7 fumbles). In scoring terms, the Chargers have found the end zone 26 times through the air and 10 times on the ground.
Defensively, the Chargers rank 9th in the league for points allowed, giving up an average of 20.0 points per game. Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per carry, totaling 105.4 rushing yards per game against Los Angeles. In the passing game, they have allowed 3,058 yards, which is 5th in the league, with an average of 179.9 passing yards surrendered per game and a completion percentage of 60.8%. Overall, the Chargers permit an average of 285.2 yards per game, ranking them 5th in the NFL, having given up 16 passing scores and 16 rushing touchdowns, totaling 1,791 rushing yards across 17 games this season.
The Patriots enter this game with a strong 14-3 record this season. In their most recent game, they achieved a convincing 38-10 win against the Miami Dolphins. Rhamondre Stevenson was pivotal, rushing 7 times for an impressive 131 yards, averaging 18.7 yards per carry. Hunter Henry led the receiving corps with 56 yards on 5 receptions (11.2 yards per catch). Quarterback Drake Maye had a solid outing, completing 14 of 18 passes for 191 yards and 1 touchdown, finishing with an excellent quarterback rating of 129.4 and no interceptions. The Patriots’ defense allowed 63 yards on 25 rushing attempts (2.5 yards per carry). In the passing game, they permitted a completion rate of 64.0%, yielding 117 yards on 16 of 25 attempts. New England’s offense accumulated 457 yards on 56 plays, averaging 8.2 yards per play and rushing for 243 yards on 34 attempts for an average of 7.1 yards per carry.
When it comes to scoring, the Patriots rank second in the league with an average of 28.8 points per game. They have thrown for 4,258 yards this season, averaging 250.5 yards per game, which places them 4th in the NFL. On the ground, they average 128.9 rushing yards per game, totaling 2,191 yards. The New England Patriots have an overall offensive average of 379.4 yards per game, ranking them 3rd in the league. However, they have 854 total yards lost due to 99 penalties, which ranks them 26th in the NFL for self-inflicted harm. The team has thrown 8 interceptions and lost 8 fumbles, achieving a total of 206 first downs.
On defense, the Patriots yield 18.8 points per game, which ranks them 4th in the league. They have allowed 25 passing touchdowns and an average of 193.5 yards per passing game, ranking them 9th overall in the NFL. This season, they have given up a total of 1,729 rushing yards (101.7 yards per game) and 11 rushing touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense has participated in 973 scrimmage plays, ranking them 3rd in the league. They have produced 19 turnovers (9 forced fumbles and 10 interceptions) throughout the season, accumulating a total of 320 points allowed.
Who do you think will prevail in the Chargers vs. Patriots game against the spread?
Prediction: Bet on the Chargers +3.5
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