Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Monday, July 28, 2025
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio
Odds/Point Spread: Los Angeles (-144) Cincinnati (+120)
The Cincinnati Reds (53-50) are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers (60-43) at Great American Ball Park this Monday. The moneyline for this matchup has the Dodgers at -144 and the Reds at +120. The over/under for the game is set at 8.5, with the expected starting pitchers being Shohei Ohtani and Chase Burns.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently averaging 5.3 runs per game, placing them 1st in the league. With a total of 546 runs and an on-base percentage (OBP) of .329, the Dodgers have 166 doubles and 157 home runs to their name this season. Their total of 526 RBIs alongside 893 hits translates to a team batting average of .254. The Dodgers showcase a slugging percentage of .444, having struck out 854 times while also drawing 371 walks this year.
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The Dodgers have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.49, with their pitching staff posting a collective WHIP of 1.32. This season, Dodgers pitchers have conceded 128 home runs and allowed 480 runs in total, ranking 23rd in the league. Los Angeles has given up 854 hits (8.4 hits per 9 innings) and 438 earned runs, resulting in a 4.28 earned run average (ERA), placing them 23rd overall. The pitching staff has tallied 908 strikeouts and granted 365 walks, with a team FIP of 4.27 this season.
The Dodgers’ bullpen has entered 92 games with runners on base, along with 107 high-leverage instances. They lead the MLB with 76 holds and have a 65.2% save rate across 126 save situations. This season, they have recorded 30 saves and missed 16 of their 46 save opportunities. With 375 relievers deployed this year, the bullpen has inherited 142 runners, of which 27.5% have scored.
Defensively, the Dodgers have converted 69.6% of balls in play into outs over 8,283 innings, placing them 18th in the league. They’ve recorded 2,761 putouts, 881 assists, and 51 errors this season, holding a fielding percentage of .986 (15th in MLB), with 73 double plays achieved.
Ohtani has pitched 493 innings, accumulating 621 strikeouts throughout his career. With a 38-19 lifetime record, he carries a FIP of 2.93, having faced 1,998 batters. His earned run average stands at 2.97, having allowed 163 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.081. Ohtani has given up 357 hits (6.5 hits per 9 innings) while walking 176 hitters.
The Cincinnati Reds have hit 107 home runs this season and achieved 441 RBIs. They have also recorded 163 doubles while drawing 341 walks and producing 470 runs overall. With a team OBP of .319 and a batting average of .246, they have a slugging percentage of .394 and an average of 4.56 runs per game (12th in the league). This season, the Reds have struck out 881 times (11th in the league) and amassed 850 hits.
The Reds’ pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.245 and a FIP of 4.14. They are ranked 8th in the league for total hits allowed, having conceded 808 hits so far this season. The team has permitted 435 runs, with an ERA of 3.91 (395 earned runs). Their K/BB ratio stands at 8.30 (837 strikeouts against 323 walks), allowing 118 home runs and permitting 4.31 runs per 9 innings (16th in the league).
Cincinnati has utilized their bullpen in 35 save opportunities, securing 24 saves and ranking 8th in the league with a 68.6% save rate. They have employed 346 bullpen pitchers this season, with relief pitchers participating in 88 high-leverage scenarios and 85 instances with runners on base. This season, they have a 34.3% inherited run rate out of 134 inherited runners, alongside 63 holds and 11 blown saves in 100 save situations.
Over 8,178 innings, the Reds maintain a defensive efficiency of 71.3% (6th in professional baseball). They have achieved 59 double plays and hold a .985 fielding percentage (22nd in pro baseball), with 779 assists, 52 errors, and 2,726 putouts this season.
Burns, with a 0-2 career record, has a 6.79 ERA, allowing 10.2 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio stands at 3.18, facing 100 batters in his MLB tenure. He has allowed 16 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.651 and a FIP of 6.7. Throughout his career, Burns has given up 24 hits while accumulating 35 strikeouts over 21 innings pitched.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB game against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Recommendation: Back Cincinnati (+120)
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