Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell Betting Picks, Predictions, and Odds for UFC Rio on 10/11/2025

• Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell
• UFC Rio
• Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
• Saturday, October 11, 2025

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Lucas Almeida is set to clash with Michael Aswell at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The moneyline currently lists Almeida at +119 and Aswell at -139.

Entering this matchup, Lucas Almeida holds a record of 15 wins and 4 losses. The 34-year-old fighter weighs in at 145 lbs and stands at 5’11”. He boasts a reach of 71″. His opponent, Michael “The Texas Kid” Aswell, measures 5’8″ and also competes at 145 lbs, with a professional record of 10 wins and 3 losses. Aged 25, Aswell has a reach of 69″. In the striking department, Almeida lands an average of 4.94 significant strikes per minute, while Aswell connects on a remarkable 9.10. Almeida’s striking accuracy is at 39%, compared to Aswell’s 44%. Defensively, Almeida absorbs 5.04 significant strikes per minute while Aswell faces 7.93. Almeida successfully defends against 44% of incoming strikes, whereas Aswell manages to deflect 54% of his opponent’s attacks.

In terms of grappling, Lucas Almeida has not secured any takedowns so far, averaging 0.00 takedowns per 3 rounds. He has a takedown success rate of 0% and defends against 53% of takedown attempts. On the other hand, Aswell also has a takedown success rate of 0% but successfully defends against 57% of takedown attempts. Regarding submission attempts, Almeida registers 0.3 submissions per 15 minutes, while Aswell averages 0.6 submissions per 3 rounds.

In his last Octagon appearance, Lucas Almeida faced Danny Silva, suffering a loss via split decision in the third round. Silva landed 85 of 141 total strikes, while Almeida managed to connect with 78 of 244 total strikes. Regarding significant strikes, Silva secured 82 of 137, boasting a striking accuracy of 59%. He delivered 45 of 96 significant strikes to the head. Conversely, Almeida achieved a striking accuracy of 30%, landing 74 of 240. Notably, he connected with 49 out of 203 significant strikes aimed at the head. Almost all significant strikes from both fighters were landed at a distance, with Silva and Almeida at 98% each.

Michael Aswell’s most recent fight was against Bolaji Oki, where he lost by unanimous decision in the third round. Oki landed 99% of his significant strikes at a distance, while Aswell matched that percentage. Aswell hit 38% of his attempted significant strikes, totaling 118 out of 309. He also landed 92 of 270 significant strikes directed at the head. Oki, in comparison, connected on 136 of 303 significant strikes, making his head strike accuracy 38%. Total striking statistics showed Oki at 136 of 303 and Aswell at 118 of 309.

Notable Fights on the Card

Another fight to watch features Jafel Filho versus Clayton Carpenter. Filho enters with a record of 16-4-0, weighing 125 lbs and standing 5’7″. His reach is 68″. Carpenter, at 5’6″ and also fighting at 125 lbs, has a record of 8-1-0 and a reach of 66″. In grappling stats, Filho averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Carpenter secures 2.23 takedowns per 3 rounds. In striking, Filho lands 1.92 strikes per minute at a 41% accuracy, while Carpenter connects on 3.91 strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 55%.

Additionally, watch as Thomas Petersen goes up against Vitor Petrino. Petrino holds a 12-2-0 record, weighs 265 lbs, and stands 6’2″ with a reach of 77″. Petersen, a southpaw at 6’1″ and 264 lbs, has a record of 10-3-0 with a reach of 74″. In grappling, Petrino defends 71% of takedowns while executing 58% of his attempts. Petersen takes down opponents with 66% success and has a perfect takedown defense rate. In striking, Petrino absorbs 2.60 strikes per minute while landing 2.72, and Petersen takes 2.94 strikes per minute while landing 3.74.

Who will triumph in tonight’s UFC matchup against the spread?

Pick: Select Michael Aswell (-139)