The opening fortnight of the 2025 NFL season has brought its fair share of intrigue. While surprises have been minimal, it’s evident that some teams are facing significant challenges. This Thursday Night Football, the uninspired Miami Dolphins travel to Orchard Park, New York, in a bid to upset the AFC East-leading Bills.
Some teams, like the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans, have shown resilience despite their struggles. However, it’s glaringly clear that numerous Miami Dolphins players appear disengaged under head coach Mike McDaniel.
It’s unlikely we’ll see them play with any motivation until a change occurs. The injuries to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have taken a toll. While I don’t want to place all the blame on McDaniel, his situation is dire, and he may be the first head coach to face the axe this season.
McDaniel is currently the favored candidate with odds at (+150) for dismissal. Honestly, that might be a bet worth considering.
Recent comments from McDaniel suggest confusion and uncertainty. His vague statements seem to stem from either an inability or unwillingness to address the questions posed. His rhetoric is reminiscent of another Yale graduate, George W. Bush.
The Dolphins have been outscored by a total of 31 points over the first two games, whereas the Bills are boasting a +21 against their opponents. With the game being held in Buffalo, this matchup could very well become a significant chapter in McDaniel’s tumultuous coaching journey with the Dolphins.
Doc’s Sports provides expert NFL picks for every match on our NFL predictions page.
Miami Dolphins (+12.5) versus Buffalo Bills (-12.5)
Buffalo enters this divisional showdown as nearly two-touchdown favorites for solid reasons. The initial line was set at (-9.5), which I found attractive. Predicting the Bills to dominate the Jets last Sunday was straightforward given Miami’s ongoing struggles.
Unfortunately, the line has shifted, and we might see it rise to (-14) by kickoff on Thursday night.
Almost all the betting action, both in terms of tickets and money, has favored Buffalo. It would be refreshing to witness a competitive game in this solo matchup, yet all indicators suggest a one-sided affair.
Point Total: 49.5
The opening point total was 48.5, quickly adjusting to 49.5. However, there hasn’t been any counteraction as upwards of 90% of the betting has leaned towards the over.
Moneyline Odds
Dolphins: +480
Bills: -700
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
Are we attempting to advocate for a Dolphin upset? Not at all, despite the considerable spread. I simply can’t back this organization right now. I sense the locker room is disenchanted with their head coach, and history shows that this often results in a decline until a new coach takes charge.
Once a new head coach is in place, we generally see them cover the spread in their first game. Regarding this Thursday’s misalignment, the Dolphins will likely be unprepared to contend with Josh Allen’s aerial assault. They have allowed 10 and 9.4 yards per pass to their initial two opposing quarterbacks, Daniel Jones and Drake Maye.
Last year, Buffalo triumphed over Miami with a score of 31-10, despite Allen only recording 130 passing yards. It’s hard to justify betting on him to surpass 233 passing yards.
While Miami effectively passed against the Patriots last week, their running game has faltered in both opening contests. I considered taking Allen over 28.5 rushing yards, but he only managed 5 rushing yards against the Dolphins last season, suggesting he rarely runs against them.
I’ll put my faith in the Bills’ team total of 28.5 points. They exceeded this in both encounters with Miami the previous season. Buffalo should exploit the Dolphins’ weaknesses in the air, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Miami packed it in before the third quarter concludes.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Pick
Pick: Buffalo Bills Over Their Team Total of 28.5 Points
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