- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Broadcast: FOX
- Point Spread Odds: Patriots (-10.5)
- Total Points Over/Under: 45.5
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In a highly anticipated showdown, the New England Patriots (13-3) will host the Miami Dolphins (7-9) this Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins enter the matchup as 10.5-point underdogs, with an anticipated total set at 45.5 points.
The Dolphins wrapped up the season with a 7-9 record. In their previous outing, they edged out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a tight 20-17 victory. Quarterback Quinn Ewers completed 14 of 22 passes for 172 yards and tossed 2 touchdowns, boasting a quarterback rating of 118 without any interceptions. Key receiver Greg Dulcich averaged 11.6 yards per reception, finishing with 58 yards on 5 catches. Running back De’Von Achane led the ground game, managing 83 yards on 18 carries (4.6 yards per carry). Overall, Miami executed 52 plays that amassed 298 yards and produced 30 rushing attempts totaling 145 yards, achieving an average of 4.8 yards per run. Defensively, Miami surrendered 53 rushing yards on 16 attempts, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, while allowing the Buccaneers 33 completions on 44 attempts, amounting to 327 passing yards and a completion percentage of 75.0%.
This season, the Dolphins have accumulated a total of 4,932 offensive yards. They recorded 167 first downs but suffered from 94 penalties resulting in 759 yards lost. Miami has achieved 22 passing touchdowns along with 14 rushing touchdowns. However, they also recorded 22 turnovers, comprising 17 interceptions and 5 fumbles. The Dolphins have averaged 123.8 rush yards per game, placing them 10th in the league, while their scoring average stands at 21.1 points per game.
On the defensive end, the Dolphins have allowed 3,464 passing yards this season, ranking 18th in the league. They concede an average of 216.5 passing yards per game with a concerning completion percentage of 71.8%. In total, Miami’s defense has given up 2,008 rushing yards throughout the season. They’ve allowed 28 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns, leading to an average of 342.0 yards conceded per game, placing them 21st in the league. Their run defense has yielded 4.6 yards per carry, averaging 125.5 rushing yards allowed per game this season. Overall, Miami ranks 21st in defensive performance, letting opponents score an average of 24.1 points per game.
As the Patriots stride into this encounter with an impressive 13-3 record, they recently thrashed the New York Jets, finishing the matchup at 42-10. Running back TreVeyon Henderson clocked in with 82 yards on 19 carries, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt. Star receiver Stefon Diggs led the receiving corps with 6 catches for 101 yards (16.8 yards per reception). Quarterback Drake Maye had a standout performance, completing 19 of 21 passes for 256 yards and throwing 5 touchdowns, achieving a quarterback rating of 157 without an interception. The Patriots conceded 164 rushing yards on 28 attempts (5.9 yards per carry) and their pass defense recorded a completion percentage of 58.8%, yielding 143 yards on 20 completions out of 34 attempts. New England amassed a total of 440 offensive yards over 61 plays, averaging 7.2 yards per play while maintaining a 4.3 rushing yard average with 155 total rush yards on 36 carries.
In terms of scoring, the Patriots rank 5th in the league, averaging 28.3 points per game this season. Their passing game has logged 4,044 yards, translating to 252.8 passing yards per game, placing them 3rd in the league. They also average 121.8 rushing yards per game, totaling 1,948 rushing yards this season. New England boasts an average of 374.5 total yards per game, putting them 4th in the league. They have, however, endured 802 yards lost due to 95 penalties, ranking 25th in the league for infractions. Offensively, the team has achieved 198 first downs while managing 8 interceptions and 8 lost fumbles.
The Patriots’ defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points per game, which ranks 5th in the league. They’ve permitted 24 touchdowns through the air and are giving up a passing average of 198.3 yards per game, situating them at 10th overall. Additionally, the Patriots have given up a total of 1,666 rushing yards, averaging 104.1 rushing yards allowed per game and allowing 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Their defense has participated in 919 plays from scrimmage, ranking 3rd in the league. Notably, they have generated 17 takeaways throughout the season (8 forced fumbles and 9 interceptions), culminating in a total of 310 points allowed.
Who will emerge victorious in this Dolphins vs. Patriots NFL matchup against the spread?
Recommendation: Back the Dolphins +10.5
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