Matchup: Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Date: Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Midwest
Betting Odds: Miami (+162), St. Louis (-196)
The Miami Marlins (50-54) are set to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals (54-53) at Busch Stadium this Tuesday. The odds for this clash place the Marlins at +162 on the moneyline, while the Cardinals are at -196. The combined over/under for total runs is 8.5. Expected to take the mound are Sandy Alcantara for Miami and Sonny Gray for St. Louis.
This season, the Marlins have recorded 175 doubles and belted 96 home runs. With a slugging percentage of .395, they have struck out 815 times while drawing 307 walks. The team’s scoring averages 4.3 runs per game, positioning them at 19th in Major League Baseball. Over the course of the season, they have accumulated 425 RBIs and 893 hits, resulting in a batting average of .254 and an on-base percentage of .316.
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This season, the Marlins have a combined ERA of 4.44, ranking 24th in the league, with their pitchers striking out 808 batters. They have allowed 110 home runs and a total of 490 runs (24th in MLB). With a total of 319 walks issued, the team’s FIP stands at 4.07. They have given up 878 hits (8.6 per nine innings) and 453 earned runs, holding a K/BB ratio of 2.53 and a WHIP of 1.30.
The Marlins bullpen boasts a save percentage of 61.9%, having faced 99 save situations this season. They’ve had 118 inherited runners, with 30.5% scoring. This season, Marlins relievers have taken the mound 324 times, recording 56 holds (18th in MLB) and 26 saves from 42 attempts.
The team’s defense has been solid with 2,754 putouts, 905 assists, and 51 errors. Their fielding percentage of .986 positions them at 13th in Major League Baseball, alongside a total of 71 double plays. The Marlins convert 69.6% of balls in play into outs over 8,262 innings, ranking them 17th in the league.
Alcantara, with a career record of 46-64, holds a FIP of 3.61 after facing 4,140 batters. Allowing 879 hits (7.9 per nine innings) and issuing 312 walks, he has an earned run average of 3.67 (409 earned runs) and a WHIP of 1.186 across 1,004 innings, achieving 866 strikeouts in his career.
The Cardinals maintain a slugging percentage of .392, averaging 4.47 runs per game (13th in MLB). They’ve tallied 187 doubles and received 328 walks, driving in 474 runs this season with 103 home runs. With 809 strikeouts (25th in the league) and 901 hits, St. Louis has an on-base percentage of .321 and a batting average of .252 this season.
The Cardinals’ pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.286 and a FIP of 3.83. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 7.50 (776 strikeouts against 282 walks), ranking them 25th in total hits allowed (922). This year, they’ve permitted 101 home runs and 4.57 runs per 9 innings (21st in the league), contributing to a team ERA of 4.17 (434 earned runs thus far).
St. Louis’ bullpen has entered 40 save opportunities, successfully converting 26, holding a save rate of 65.0% (13th in the league). They’ve dispatched 318 relievers this season, appearing 107 times in high-leverage situations and 104 times with runners on base. The inherited score percentage for their bullpen stands at 32.6% from 141 inherited runners. The Cardinals account for 63 holds and 14 blown saves within 106 save opportunities this year.
Throughout 8,430 innings played, the Cardinals see a defensive efficiency of 69.4% (19th in pro baseball), with 81 double plays converted and an impressive fielding percentage of .989 (4th in pro baseball). They have recorded 1,024 assists, 44 errors, and 2,810 putouts this season.
Gray, holding a career record of 121-98, has achieved a 3.56 earned run average, giving up 7.8 hits per nine innings and posting a K/BB ratio of 3.08. Facing 7,679 hitters, he has allowed 733 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.194; his FIP is 3.50. Throughout his career, Gray has surrendered 1,610 hits and achieved 1,852 strikeouts over 1,853 innings pitched.
Who will secure the win in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Bet on Miami (+162)
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