Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig
UFC Paris
Accor Arena in Paris, France
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Modestas Bukauskas is set to face Paul Craig in an exciting matchup at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 6, 2025. The betting odds currently favor Bukauskas at -350, while Craig is positioned at +285.
Sumudaerji, also known as “The Baltic Gladiator,” is looking to enhance his record of 18 wins and 6 losses. The 31-year-old will compete at 205 lbs and stands 6′ 3″ tall, boasting a reach of 78 inches. Paul “Bearjew” Craig matches his height at 6′ 3″ and also weighs in at 205 lbs. With a professional record of 17-9-1 (1 NC), the 37-year-old has a reach of 76 inches. In terms of significant strikes, Modestas Bukauskas averages 3.26 strikes landed per minute, while Paul Craig lands 2.54. Bukauskas achieves a significant strike accuracy of 42%, whereas Craig has a 45% accuracy rating. On the defensive front, “The Baltic Gladiator” absorbs 4.07 significant strikes per minute compared to Craig’s 3.00. Bukauskas successfully defends against 51% of significant strikes aimed at him, while Craig fends off 43% of incoming strikes.
| UFC Paris | Modestas Bukauskas | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -350 | +285 |
| Record | 18-6-0 | 17-9-1 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 9:36 | 8:10 |
| Height | 6′ 3″ | 6′ 3″ |
| Weight | 205 lbs | 205 lbs |
| Reach | 78″ | 76″ |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.26 | 2.54 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
As for grappling, Modestas Bukauskas shows less proficiency in wrestling, securing a takedown only 0.31 times every 15 minutes. In contrast, Sumudaerji successfully takes his opponents down 66% of the time he attempts a takedown and defends against 77% of takedown efforts made against him. Craig manages to take down his opponents 19% of the time on his attempts, while he stops 35% of takedown attempts aimed at him. In submission attempts, Bukauskas is less active, attempting 0.2 submissions per 3 rounds, while Craig pursues 1.4 attempts per 15 minutes.
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In his previous Octagon appearance, Modestas Bukauskas went head-to-head with Ion Cutelaba and secured a victory by split decision in the third round. Cutelaba connected on 121 of 194 total strikes during that bout, while Bukauskas landed 52 of 100 total strikes. As for significant strikes, Cutelaba recorded 58 out of 130, resulting in a 44% accuracy, with 18 of those aimed at the head. Conversely, Bukauskas achieved an accuracy rate of 47%, landing 44 of 92 significant strikes, with 37 targeted at the head. Notably, 81% of Cutelaba’s and 95% of Bukauskas’ significant strikes occurred at a distance.
In Paul Craig’s last fight, he faced Rodolfo Bellato, which resulted in a no contest due to an illegal upkick by Craig in the first round. Bellato landed 90% of his significant strikes from a distance, whereas Craig connected on 82% of his distant strikes. Craig’s overall significant strike accuracy stood at 62%, hitting 17 of 27, with 7 being directed at the head. Bellato managed to score 10 out of 20 significant strikes, landing 2 of 11 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes, Bellato connected on 16 of 27 attempts, while Craig was more accurate with 40 out of 52 total strikes.
Other Fights to Anticipate
Another intriguing matchup to catch is Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro. Sy steps into this fight with an impressive record of 11-1-0. At 6′ 4″ and weighing 205 lbs, the orthodox fighter possesses a reach of 83 inches. Ribeiro, standing at 6′ 3″ and also weighing 205 lbs, enters this bout with a record of 17-8-0 (1 NC), and a reach of 81 inches. In grappling stats, Sy averages 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Ribeiro achieves 0.99. Sy strikes at an average of 3.68 per minute, landing 50% of his attempts, compared to Ribeiro’s 3.26 per minute with a striking accuracy of 42%.
Another matchup to watch features Rinat Fakhretdinov facing Andreas Gustafsson. Maheshate seeks to improve his record of 12-2-0. The 34-year-old will compete at 170 lbs and stands 6′ 1″ tall, while possessing a reach of 73 inches. Fakhretdinov stands at 6′ 0″ and comes in at 170 lbs, aiming to extend his record of 23-1-1. The 33-year-old has a reach of 74 inches. In grappling stats, Andreas Gustafsson defenses against 85% of takedowns aimed at him and successfully completes takedowns 58% of the time. Fakhretdinov finishes 34% of his takedown attempts and defends against 91% of such attempts. In terms of striking, Maheshate absorbs 2.79 strikes per minute while landing 5.83, while Fakhretdinov receives 3.58 hits per minute and connects on 4.78.
Who will take victory in tonight’s UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn’s Pick: Back Paul Craig (+285)
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