Matchup: New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2025
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Broadcast: MASN
Odds/Point Spread: New York Mets (-182) Baltimore Orioles (+150)
On Tuesday, July 8, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles (40-49) will take on the New York Mets (52-39) at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The betting lines show the Mets at -182 and the Orioles at +150, with an over/under set at 8.5. The starting pitchers for this matchup are Clay Holmes and Tomoyuki Sugano.
This season, the New York Mets are averaging 4.4 runs per game, placing them 14th in Major League Baseball. They have scored a total of 402 runs, boasting a team on-base percentage (OBP) of .324. The Mets have achieved 142 doubles and launched 118 home runs, with 392 RBIs and 744 hits, resulting in a batting average of .245. They’re slugging .418 while recording 710 strikeouts and have walked 311 times this season.
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The Mets’ pitching staff holds a collective ERA of 3.54, ranking sixth in the league, and they have tallied 786 strikeouts this season. The pitchers have allowed 79 home runs and a total of 358 runs (9th in baseball). They have issued 334 walks, with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.77. New York has given up 720 hits this year, averaging 8.0 per 9 innings, and has surrendered 318 earned runs. The strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 2.35, with a combined WHIP of 1.30.
Relief pitchers for the Mets have been called into action with runners on base 97 times, with 108 high-leverage appearances. The bullpen has recorded 59 holds this season, ranking 8th in the league. Their save percentage is at 61.9%, with 26 successful saves out of 42 opportunities. This year, the relief corps has inherited 148 runners, of which 34.5% have scored. A total of 291 different relief pitchers have taken the mound for New York this year.
New York has converted 69.7% of batted balls into outs over 7,272 defensive innings, placing them 16th in the league. The Minnesota Twins have achieved 2,424 putouts, complemented by 820 assists and 43 errors, leading to a fielding percentage of .987 (12th MLB) and 73 double plays.
Pitcher Clay Holmes, with a career record of 32-26, features a FIP of 3.50 and has faced 1,850 batters throughout his major league career. He has allowed 363 hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) and issued 192 walks. His earned run average is 3.56 (170 earned runs) with a career WHIP of 1.290 across 430 innings pitched and 436 strikeouts.
The Orioles currently showcase a team slugging percentage of .400, scoring an average of 4.17 runs per game (20th in the league). They have tallied 139 doubles, drawn 252 walks, and scored a total of 371 runs. Baltimore has hit 107 home runs while accumulating 350 RBIs, striking out 788 times (7th in league) and achieving 713 hits. The team’s OBP is .305 with a batting average of .239 this season.
Baltimore’s pitching staff has given up 453 runs this year, holding a team ERA of 4.94 (429 earned runs). They have allowed 123 home runs and are yielding 5.21 runs per 9 innings (27th in league). The team boasts a WHIP of 1.421 with a FIP of 4.47, along with a K/BB ratio of 8.40 (734 strikeouts to 287 walks). As a staff, they rank 28th in total hits allowed, giving up 824 hits.
This season, the Orioles have faced 105 save situations, recording 68 holds and suffering 12 blown saves. In 34 save attempts, they have successfully converted 22 saves. Orioles relievers have competed in high-leverage situations 95 times and have been on the field 103 times with base runners. Their inherited runner scoring rate stands at 18.4% out of 136 inherited runners. They currently sit 11th in MLB with a save rate of 64.7%, employing 316 relief pitchers this season.
Defensively, the Orioles have achieved 64 double plays and maintain a fielding percentage of .985 (24th in MLB). They have totaled 779 assists, committed 49 errors, and recorded 2,347 putouts this season. With 7,041 defensive innings played, their defensive efficiency metrics are at 67.3%, ranking 29th in professional baseball.
In his MLB tenure, Sugano has allowed 103 hits and registered 57 strikeouts across 93 innings pitched. He has given up a total of 46 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.310 and a FIP of 4.4. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.00 and he has encountered 397 batters. Sugano boasts a 6-5 career record and an earned run average of 4.45, permitting 10.0 hits per nine innings.
Who will prevail in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Pick: Favor New York (-182)
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