Matchup: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: NBC Sports Philadelphia
Betting Odds: New York Mets (+120), Philadelphia Phillies (-144)
The Philadelphia Phillies (85-60) are set to face off against the New York Mets (76-69) at Citizens Bank Park this Thursday. Betting lines show New York at +120, while Philadelphia is favored at -144, with a total set at 8.5 runs. Anticipated starting pitchers for this matchup are David Peterson and Jesus Luzardo.
This season, New York boasts a slugging percentage of .429 with 1,170 strikeouts and 514 walks. They’ve accumulated 670 RBIs and 1,220 hits, holding a batting average of .250. The Mets have hit 241 doubles and launched 198 home runs, resulting in 687 runs scored, with a team on-base percentage (OBP) of .329. Currently, they average 4.7 runs per game, placing them 10th in Major League Baseball.
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The Mets possess a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.44 and their pitching staff has a combined WHIP of 1.33. They’ve allowed 131 home runs and 628 runs this season, ranking 17th in MLB. New York has conceded 1,188 hits (8.3 per nine innings) and 562 earned runs, achieving a team ERA of 3.95 (15th in the league) while striking out 1,246 batters. They have issued 511 walks, with a collective FIP of 3.88.
New York’s bullpen has a save conversion rate of 61.3%, entering 151 save situations. They have inherited 232 runners, of which 33.6% have scored. The Mets’ relief pitchers have taken the mound with runners on base 154 times this season and have appeared in 170 high-leverage situations. With a total of 470 relief appearances, they’ve accumulated 89 holds (8th in MLB). They have executed 38 saves, but have blown 24 of 62 opportunities.
On defensce, the Mets have converted 69.0% of balls in play into outs over 11,529 innings, ranking 23rd in the majors. They have recorded 3,843 putouts, 1,300 assists, and 67 errors this season, boasting a .987 fielding percentage (10th in MLB) alongside 107 double plays.
David Peterson has a career record of 37-29, with a FIP of 3.93. He’s faced 2,614 hitters in the majors, surrendering 575 hits (8.5 per nine innings) and issuing 256 walks. His ERA stands at 3.99, with 271 earned runs allowed, and he has a career WHIP of 1.360 over 611 innings, accumulating 604 strikeouts.
On the other hand, the Philadelphia Phillies have achieved a .329 OBP and a team batting average of .259 this season. They’ve struck out 1,171 times (20th in MLB), while totaling 1,278 hits. Their season stats feature 181 home runs and 667 RBIs. The team’s slugging percentage is .426, and they average 4.77 runs per game (9th in baseball), with 239 doubles and 692 runs scored through 474 walks.
The Phillies have a team WHIP of 1.241 and a FIP of 3.67 this year. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 9.30 (1,324 strikeouts against 396 walks). They are positioned 18th in the league in hits allowed, having conceded 1,200. With 153 home runs allowed, they yield 4.04 runs every 9 innings (5th in MLB). Their staff has given up 578 runs with a 3.79 team ERA (541 earned runs allowed).
The Philadelphia bullpen has an inherited scoring rate of 32.9% from 140 inherited runners. They’ve appeared in 160 high-leverage situations and on 95 occasions with base runners. The Phillies have managed 73 holds and recorded 23 blown saves in 140 save situations, producing a save percentage of 64.1%, ranking 11th in MLB. They have deployed 453 relievers this season and secured 41 saves out of 64 opportunities.
Defensively, the Philadelphia Phillies have turned 93 double plays and possess a .990 fielding percentage (3rd in MLB). They’ve achieved 1,246 assists, recorded 54 errors, and completed 3,859 putouts over the course of the season. Their defensive efficiency stands at 68.9% over 11,577 innings played (24th in MLB).
Throughout his career, Luzardo has permitted 614 hits and amassed 749 strikeouts over 673 innings. With a career record of 39-40, he has an ERA of 4.22 and allows 8.2 hits per nine innings, having given up a total of 316 earned runs. His WHIP is 1.263, FIP is 4.2, and he boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.17, having faced 2,825 batters so far in his professional journey.
Who will come out on top in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Prediction: Bet on New York (+120)
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