Matchup: New York Mets vs San Diego Padres
Date: Wednesday, July 30, 2025
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Broadcast: Padres.TV
Betting Odds: New York (-128) San Diego (+106)
The New York Mets (62-45) are set to travel to Petco Park on Wednesday to face off against the San Diego Padres (58-49). The betting line for this exciting clash positions New York at -128 while San Diego stands at +106. The over/under for total runs is established at 8.5. Starting pitchers for this contest include Clay Holmes and Yu Darvish.
The Mets boast a slugging percentage of .414 and have struck out 857 times while drawing 372 walks this season. They have tallied 459 RBIs along with 865 hits, resulting in a batting average of .243. Collectively, the Mets have recorded 172 doubles and hit 135 home runs this season, generating a total of 472 runs with a team on-base percentage of .322. Averaging 4.4 runs per game, the Mets currently rank 14th in Major League Baseball.
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This year, the Mets are maintaining a solid earned run average of 3.54 (3rd in the league) with 915 strikeouts under their belt. Pitchers for New York have allowed 93 home runs and a total of 418 runs (ranking 5th in MLB). They have issued 386 walks, and their FIP stands at 3.81 for the season. The squad has permitted 854 hits (averaging 8.1 hits per 9 innings) while registering 374 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.37, and the team’s WHIP reads at 1.31.
The Mets’ bullpen has achieved a save rate of 65.4%, entering 124 save opportunities. Relievers have managed 174 inherited runners, allowing a 33.9% scoring rate. New York’s pitchers have faced runners on base 116 times, including having 134 high-leverage appearances. This season, the Mets have called up 346 relief pitchers, recording 72 holds (7th in the league) with 34 saves against 18 blown saves out of 52 opportunities.
In the field, the Minnesota Twins have tallied 2,850 putouts, along with 969 assists and 49 errors, securing a fielding percentage of .987, ranking 11th in MLB while recording 84 double plays. The Mets have converted 69.6% of balls in play into outs across 8,550 innings, placing them 15th in major league baseball.
Holmes, with a career win-loss record of 33-27, presents a FIP of 3.58, having faced 1,937 MLB hitters. He’s allowed 387 hits (7.7 hits per nine innings) with 197 walks, resulting in an earned run average of 3.64 (182 ERs). His career WHIP is 1.297, having thrown 450 innings and amassed 448 strikeouts.
The San Diego Padres hold an on-base percentage of .317 and a team batting average of .250 this season. They have struck out 754 times (28th in MLB) and accumulated 893 hits. The team has hit 90 home runs and recorded 405 RBIs. San Diego’s slugging percentage is .379, and they average 4.05 runs per game (25th in MLB). They boast 166 doubles, an impressive 336 walks, and a total of 433 runs scored.
As a pitching unit, the Padres maintain a team WHIP of 1.228 and a FIP of 3.90. They rank 2nd in the league for fewest hits allowed with 805 total. The Padres’ staff has given up 412 runs this season, with an overall ERA of 3.60 (378 earned runs). Their K/BB ratio stands at 8.60 (903 strikeouts against 354 walks). They’ve permitted 106 home runs and allow just 3.93 runs per 9 innings (4th in MLB).
San Diego’s relievers have an inherited scoring percentage of 28.8% from their 177 inherited runners. They have entered high-leverage situations 154 times and faced runners on base 127 times. Out of 126 save situations, the relievers have achieved 74 holds and encountered 13 blown saves. They lead the league with a save rate of 73.5%, deploying 375 relievers this season. The Padres have called upon relievers in 49 save scenarios, achieving 36 saves.
Throughout 8,496 innings, the Padres have attained a defensive efficiency of 71.3% (4th in MLB). They’ve turned 80 double plays with a fielding rate of .986, placing them 17th in professional baseball. So far, the Padres have recorded 814 assists, 52 errors, and 2,832 putouts this season.
Darvish, with a career record of 110-91, has managed to secure a 3.63 earned run average, allowing 7.4 hits per nine innings. He holds a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.65, having faced 7,089 batters in his baseball career. Darvish has surrendered a total of 695 earned runs while maintaining a WHIP of 1.143 and a FIP of 3.60. In his career, he has permitted 1,415 hits and achieved 2,018 strikeouts over 1,722 innings.
Who will come out on top in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Josh Schonwald’s Prediction: Back New York (-128)
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