Matchup: New York Mets vs San Diego Padres
Date: Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Broadcast: Padres.TV
Betting Odds: New York Mets (-144), San Diego Padres (+120)
The New York Mets (62-44) are set to clash with the San Diego Padres (57-49) at Petco Park on Tuesday. Caesars’ odds place the Mets at -144 while the Padres are listed at +120. The total points for the game are projected at 8, with Sean Manaea and Yu Darvish taking the mound.
As a unit, the New York Mets score an average of 4.4 runs per game, placing them 14th in the league. They have tallied 461 runs and maintain an on-base percentage of .322. The team has hit 165 doubles and sent 131 balls over the fence, accumulating 448 runs batted in (RBIs) from a total of 847 hits, resulting in a batting average of .242. The Mets are slugging .411 and have struck out 834 times, while drawing walks 364 times.
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The Mets’ pitching staff showcases a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.39, supported by a collective WHIP of 1.30. They have allowed 90 home runs and 408 runs (5th in MLB), giving up 834 hits (averaging 8.1 hits per 9 innings) and 365 earned runs. The Mets have a team ERA of 3.52 (3rd in the league) and have tallied 897 strikeouts this season. They’ve issued 375 walks, with a team FIP of 3.77.
This year, the Mets have utilized 337 relief pitchers, with 33.3% of the 171 inherited runners scoring. They’ve managed 33 saves but have missed 18 out of 51 save opportunities, totaling a save percentage of 64.7% over 120 save situations. Additionally, the relief corps has achieved 69 holds for the season, ranking 7th in baseball. Mets pitchers faced runners on base 114 times and appeared in 128 high-leverage situations.
Defensively, the Mets have converted 69.7% of balls in play into outs over 8,391 innings, placing them 14th in MLB. The Minnesota Twins have compiled 2,797 putouts, 957 assists, and 48 errors, holding a fielding percentage of .987 (10th in pro baseball) while turning 83 double plays.
Manaea (78-63 career record) comes in with a FIP of 3.93, having faced 4,983 batters over his MLB journey. He has allowed 1,096 hits (averaging 8.2 hits per nine innings) and has issued 339 walks. His ERA is 3.99 (530 earned runs) with a career WHIP of 1.200. Manaea has pitched for 1,196 innings and struck out 1,127 batters to date.
On the other hand, the San Diego Padres have achieved an on-base percentage of .315 and a batting average of .247 this season. They rank 28th in the league for strikeouts, having been called out 739 times, and they have 862 hits. The Padres have hit 88 home runs and accumulated 390 RBIs, registering a team slugging percentage of .376 and averaging 3.97 runs per game (25th in MLB). They’ve produced 161 doubles, collected 329 walks, and scored 417 runs so far.
San Diego’s pitching staff has allowed 404 runs with a collective team ERA of 3.60 (370 earned runs). They have surrendered 103 home runs and yield 3.93 runs per nine innings (4th in MLB). The Padres have a team WHIP of 1.229 and a FIP of 3.89, with a K/BB ratio of 8.60 (883 strikeouts to 345 walks). They currently rank 3rd in the league for total hits allowed (793).
With a total of 122 save situations this season, the Padres have 71 holds with 12 blown saves. Relief pitchers have entered 48 save opportunities and registered 36 saves. In addition, they have stepped onto the mound 152 times in high-leverage situations and 125 times with runners on. The Padres’ relief pitchers inherited 175 runners with a 29.1% success rate in scoring prevention. They rank first in MLB with a save rate of 75.0%, dispatching a total of 367 relief pitchers throughout the season.
San Diego has executed 79 double plays and holds a fielding percentage of .986 (19th in baseball). They’ve accumulated 802 assists, 52 errors, and 2,778 putouts this season. Their defensive efficiency stands at 71.2% over 8,334 innings played (5th in MLB).
In his career, Darvish has given up 1,415 hits and recorded 2,018 strikeouts across 1,722 innings pitched. With a career record of 110-91, he has an ERA of 3.63, allowing 7.4 hits per nine innings. He has yielded 695 earned runs, holding a WHIP of 1.143 and a FIP of 3.6. His strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 3.65 after facing 7,089 batters in his professional baseball career.
Who will prevail in tonight’s MLB contest against the spread or moneyline?
Josh Schonwald’s Recommendation: Bet on New York (-144)
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