New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays Prediction for 10/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets and Odds

• Game: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
• Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Broadcast: FOX
• Betting Odds: New York Yankees (+105) vs Toronto Blue Jays (-125)

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In a thrilling matchup at Rogers Centre, the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) are set to face the New York Yankees (94-68) in Game 1 of the ALDS this Saturday. The Yankees are positioned at +105 on the moneyline, while the Blue Jays hold a line at -125. The over/under for this game is set at 7. Expected to take the mound are Luis Gil and Shane Bieber.

The New York Yankees have achieved 255 doubles and launched 274 home runs this season. With a slugging percentage of .455, they’ve struck out 1,463 times while walking 639 times. Collectively, they score an average of 5.2 runs per game, placing them first in Major League Baseball. The Yankees have accumulated 820 RBIs and 1,371 hits this season, boasting a batting average of .251 and an on-base percentage of .332.

The Yankees maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.59, while their pitchers have a WHIP of 1.25. The pitching staff has allowed 175 homers and a total of 685 runs (ranked 15th in MLB). New York has permitted 1,239 hits (7.7 hits per nine innings) and 625 earned runs, resulting in a team ERA of 3.91 (14th in MLB). They have secured 1,440 strikeouts while issuing 557 walks, leading to a FIP of 4.00 this season.

This season, Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents on base 167 times and have 165 high-leverage appearances. The bullpen has recorded 100 holds (ranked 9th in MLB) with a save percentage of 67.2%, appearing in 166 save situations. They have made 43 saves and have missed 21 of 64 save opportunities, inheriting 255 runners with a 27.5% scoring rate. Overall, the Yankees have utilized 533 relief pitchers throughout the season.

The Yankees have recorded 4,319 putouts, 1,389 assists, and 94 errors this season, maintaining a fielding percentage of .984, which ranks 24th in MLB. They have successfully executed 105 double plays. The Yankees have managed to convert 70.8% of balls put into play into outs during 12,957 innings, ranking them 6th in the league.

Gil, boasting a career record of 20-9, has a FIP of 3.44 after facing 1,029 batters in the majors. He has given up 176 hits (6.5 hits per nine innings) and issued 131 walks, holding an ERA of 3.50 (94 earned runs allowed) with a career WHIP of 1.269 after pitching 242 innings and accumulating 255 strikeouts.

The Blue Jays maintain a slugging percentage of .427 and score an average of 4.93 runs per game (4th in MLB). They have registered 294 doubles and have been awarded 520 walks, accumulating 798 runs total. Toronto has hit 191 home runs and produced 771 RBIs this season. However, they have struck out 1,099 times (29th in MLB) and have a total of 1,461 hits. Their on-base percentage stands at .333, with a batting average of .265.

The Blue Jays’ collective WHIP is 1.273, coupled with a FIP of 4.27. They rank 14th in MLB for hits allowed, giving up 1,313 total hits and 721 runs, resulting in a team ERA of 4.18 (668 earned runs allowed). Their K/BB ratio is 8.90 with 1,430 strikeouts against 517 walks. They have surrendered 209 home runs this season, allowing 4.51 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB).

In 168 save situations, Toronto has achieved 96 holds and incurred 23 blown saves. The team has deployed relievers for 65 save chances, managing to secure 42 saves. Their bullpen has participated in 156 high-leverage situations, including 178 appearances with runners on base. Toronto relief pitchers have an inherited scoring percentage of 27.6% from 254 inherited runners and hold a save percentage of 64.6%, ranking 13th in MLB. They have used 570 relief pitchers this season.

Throughout 12,942 innings played, the Blue Jays exhibit a defensive efficiency rating of 70.0% (14th in MLB), achieving 118 double plays and a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in professional baseball). They have amassed 1,272 assists, committed 86 errors, and recorded 4,314 putouts this year.

In his career, Bieber has surrendered 786 hits and notched 995 strikeouts over 883 innings pitched. With a win-loss record of 66-34, he has maintained a 3.24 ERA, allowing 8.0 hits per nine innings. He has ceded 318 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.111 and a FIP of 3.2. Bieber has a K/BB ratio of 5.10 and has faced 3,574 batters in his professional baseball career.

Which team will claim victory in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or on the moneyline?

Expert Pick: Back Toronto (-125)