Don’t be misled by the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games.
Scoring was a challenge during Week 1 of the NFL season.
A clear trend emerged in the opening week: teams collectively recorded a 4-12 mark against the total points. The ‘under’ bets were consistently paying off, as many games fell significantly short of the expected total.
A low-scoring start to the season isn’t uncommon. In fact, it appears to be a growing pattern. Over the past five years, NFL teams have a combined record of 28-52 against the total in Week 1, resulting in a mere 35 percent success rate. Last year, the total in 16 games leaned slightly towards the ‘over’ at 9-7. However, in 2023 (4-12), 2022 (5-11), and 2021 (6-10), under bettors had a profitable outcome.
Week 2 has shown more variability over the last four seasons. Last year’s 9-7 performance in Week 1 was followed by a disappointing 5-11 against the total in Week 2. Yet in 2023, teams replicated this year’s scoring struggles (4-12) only to rebound with a remarkable 13-3 ‘over’ record in Week 2.
In total, teams have achieved a close 31-33 record against the total in Week 2 over the previous four seasons.
Doc’s Sports provides expert NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Here are Doc’s Sports NFL Power Rankings:
1. Buffalo Bills (1-0) – As noted last week, I usually regard the reigning Super Bowl champions as the default No. 1 team in my rankings. While the Bills might not possess the best roster, their formidable player and favorable schedule set them apart. When comparing Buffalo’s division to other teams in the top tier of these rankings, it’s clear the Bills are all but assured a division title. Recent struggles in New York, including two losses in the last three road games against the Jets, combined with a narrow 23-20 win last season, are concerning.
2. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) – Last Sunday marked the seventh occasion since the start of the 2022 season that the Ravens squandered a game in which they enjoyed a double-digit advantage. They have seen eight losses in the last five years where their win probability exceeded 90 percent. A notable moment occurred when Baltimore, leading 40-25, opted to punt from their own 41 with 7:27 left on the clock. The punt should have been expertly downed near the 1- or 2-yard line, but an unfortunate error led to a touchback. Had the Bills started that drive closer to their end zone, it’s unlikely they would have secured a win.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) – The upcoming Eagles-Chiefs matchup this week represents the 11th occurrence in NFL history of a Super Bowl rematch taking place in the following regular season, and it’s the third consecutive year this has happened. Historically, the Super Bowl-winning team holds a record of 8-2 in the rematches the subsequent season, with the Eagles managing a victory over Kansas City, 23-17, in November 2023 as one of the exceptions.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) – The Chiefs find themselves as home underdogs for the first time in three seasons. Their last game as underdogs at home resulted in a loss to Buffalo in Week 6 of 2022. This marks only the third instance in Patrick Mahomes’ career where he’s an underdog at Arrowhead. Notably, the underdog has triumphed in the last three meetings between the Chiefs and Eagles, including both Super Bowl clashes.
5. Green Bay Packers (1-0) – The Packers delivered an impressive performance, securing a dominant win over Detroit, which turned out to be my top NFL pick for the weekend. They face another playoff contender in Washington this week. Historically, Thursday night home teams have performed favorably, with an 11-6 record since 2021 in September, and an 8-5 mark in Week 2 dating back to 2012.
6. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) – Did you know there’s an entire Wikipedia page dedicated to the “Pete Carroll-Jim Harbaugh Rivalry”? Neither did I. The Chargers executed a brilliant upset victory over the Chiefs in Week 1. Time will tell if they can avoid a hangover from their journey to Brazil as they travel to Las Vegas, where they’ve had mixed results against the Raiders, winning three of the last seven meetings while posting a 4-3 ATS record.
7. Washington Commanders (1-0) – It’s hard to determine if the Giants’ offensive line had a poor showing or if the Commanders’ front four excelled during Sunday’s game. Likely, it was a mix of both. After a disappointing last season, Washington’s enhancements at the line of scrimmage seem to be yielding immediate results. They limited New York to just 74 rushing yards on 23 attempts and were relentless in pressuring Rusty Wilson, resulting in three sacks.
8. Los Angeles Rams (1-0) – I admired Sean McVay’s choice to pass on 3rd-and-8 in the final drive, confidently putting the ball in the hands of his star player instead of reverting possession to Houston. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Rams boast a flawless 9-0 SU and an 8-1 ATS record in their last nine games as road favorites. The only game they didn’t cover was against the Giants in December 2023.
9. Houston Texans (0-1) – The Texans struggled offensively, committing two turnovers and incurring 11 penalties—an unfortunate combination for any road team. Their defense met expectations, but significant issues hinder their offensive progress. Rumors circulate regarding possible trade partners for Miami, particularly concerning Tyreek Hill. If I were in Houston’s shoes, I’d be attempting to seize that opportunity.
10. Detroit Lions (0-1) – The line for the Chicago-Detroit matchup surged from Detroit -4.5 to Detroit -6 following the Bears’ collapse on Monday Night Football. Analysts anticipate a potential letdown for the Bears after their recent struggles. Caution is warranted, as Ben Johnson may have designed some surprises for his former team. The Lions have historically performed well against the Bears, with a 5-1 SU record in their last six matchups, but the underdog holds a 7-3 ATS record in this series, with several contests decided by six points or fewer.
11. Denver Broncos (1-0) – Questions loom regarding Bo Nix’s capabilities, as I have yet to be convinced of his or Drake Maye’s skills. Last season, the Broncos dropped five of their last six road outings, with a sole victory against the struggling Raiders. It’s surprising that Denver is receiving less than 50 percent of the betting action against the Colts this week; I wouldn’t be shocked if that number shifts to a ‘pick’ by game time.
12. Minnesota Vikings (1-0) – My assessment of J.J. McCarthy’s performance left much to be desired on Monday night. The Vikings secured a win, but nothing in McCarthy’s display convinced me he’s destined for anything beyond being a reliable backup. Notably, the Vikings have a 6-0 ATS streak in their last six Monday Night Football games versus non-divisional rivals.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) – Tampa Bay boasts a remarkable record, going 6-0 ATS last season as a non-divisional underdog, with three outright wins (against the Chargers, Eagles, and Lions). Baker Mayfield has thrived in that role over the past two seasons, amassing a 12-2 ATS as an underdog outside the NFC South, including a closely contested 39-37 loss at Houston in 2023, where the Texans secured the game-winning touchdown with just six seconds left.
14. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) – Following Jake Moody’s missed six kicks over four games, I believe it’s time for his exit from the team. Brock Purdy experienced some injuries last week, and with additional injuries to receivers Jauan Jennings and George Kittle, the 49ers enter their second consecutive road game filled with uncertainty. The upcoming matchup against the Saints could be laborious.
15. Seattle Seahawks (0-1) – Just as I predicted, Sam Darnold faltered, demonstrating his shortcomings as a quarterback. The rest of the team performed adequately, yet a critical turnover by Darnold on the last drive sealed Seattle’s fate. Historically, the Seahawks are 8-10 SU and 7-11 ATS in their last 18 games east of the Mississippi River.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) – The careless turnovers during the opening drive were reminiscent of past Jaguars teams. They effectively managed to keep the game out of Trevor Lawrence’s hands and showcased their offensive strength, achieving the lowest pressure rate on passing plays in Week 1 while rushing for over 200 yards.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) – Last Sunday marked the 12th occasion since the beginning of the 2021 season that the Steelers conceded 30 or more points in a game. Interestingly, Pittsburgh holds a 9-2 SU and ATS record in their last 11 games following such performances but struggles with the total. They previously lost to the Chiefs (29-10) last Christmas, just a week after allowing 34 points against the Ravens.
18. Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) – The Bengals are evidently committed to utilizing the inside trap as a key aspect of their running strategy. Notably, Cincinnati refrained from executing any designed runs outside the tackles against the Browns. Despite Chase Brown’s struggle for 43 yards on 21 carries, the Bengals remained dedicated to their ground game, with their defensive line limiting the Browns to only 49 rushing yards on 24 attempts.
19. Dallas Cowboys (0-1) – I’ve been vocal regarding the Cowboys’ unexpected potential this season. They narrowly missed defeating the Eagles in their Thursday night opener and maintain a sense of confidence heading into their matchup against the Giants. The Cowboys have historically dominated their rivalry, winning eight straight encounters and achieving a 9-1 record in the last ten meetings. With a 7-1 ATS mark over the past four years, they remain formidable.
20. Arizona Cardinals (1-0) – Kyler Murray’s performance this past Sunday raised questions about his capabilities, as he seemed to struggle similarly to Spencer Rattler. Murray exhibited flaws in passing over eight yards, appearing indecisive and inaccurate. The Cardinals achieved a commendable 4-2 ATS record as home favorites last year, yet Murray’s 9-13 ATS record when favored in Arizona raises concerns.
21. Chicago Bears (0-1) – The Bears inflicted self-harm with some avoidable penalties. While Caleb Williams demonstrated promise, he also missed crucial throws. A questionable holding call when Chicago was leading 17-6 significantly shifted momentum, robbing them of a chance to score from 1st-and-goal on the 12-yard line. Additional ambiguous pass interference calls in the fourth quarter directly led to a Vikings touchdown, further complicating matters.
22. Atlanta Falcons (0-1) – Darnell Mooney has already sustained a hamstring injury, and Drake London sprained his shoulder during Atlanta’s tough Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. The AC joint sprain keeps London day-to-day, but he is expected to play on Monday Night Football. The Falcons hold a 7-9 ATS record in their last 16 Monday Night Football road games, with last September’s upset victory at Philadelphia standing out.
23. New York Jets (0-1) – Wow. Justin Fields showcased impressive growth last week, appearing as one of the top quarterbacks I observed. Given his first-round pedigree, it’s only logical that he’s finally evolving into a competent NFL quarterback in his fifth year in the league. Despite some early setbacks, he looks poised to make a significant impact for the Jets this season.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) – Observers of the Las Vegas-New England matchup witnessed why the Seahawks were mistaken in letting Geno Smith go for Sam Darnold. Smith delivered an exceptional performance, comfortably dissecting the Patriots’ secondary with 361 passing yards. Even after Brock Bowers’ injury, Smith fluidly navigated the field, showcasing adaptability and precision.
25. Indianapolis Colts (1-0) – The Colts made history as the first team since 197 to score on every possession during a game, racking up four field goals alongside three touchdowns on seven attempts against Miami. Daniel Jones demonstrated flashes of talent but, as expected, struggled with some throws, revealing his consistent erraticism. Last December, the Colts fell short, losing 31-13 to Denver despite outgaining them 310-193 and squandering a 13-10 fourth-quarter lead.
26. New England Patriots (0-1) – Is it safe to say the Patriots are not playoff contenders? Despite being a hot pick all offseason, they appeared lackluster in their opener, highlighting a concerning deficiency in offensive firepower. Over their last nine meetings with the Dolphins, the Patriots hold a dismal 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS record, with five consecutive losses by nine or more points in Miami.
27. Cleveland Browns (0-1) – Based on Sunday’s observations, the Browns’ defense seems more aligned with their stronger 2023 version than last year’s disappointing one, assuming injuries remain manageable. My criticisms of Joe Flacco haven’t waned, though he did deliver a commendable performance in Week 1, highlighted by a beautifully thrown touchdown to Cedric Tillman that gave them a fleeting lead.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-1) – Speculation mounts on who may be the first coach to get fired: Mike McDaniel or Brian Daboll? If betting on midseason dismissals, these are two prominent choices. Personally, I doubt that Miami’s management would be inclined to make a midseason change for McDaniel, so my wager leans towards Daboll not surviving until Thanksgiving.
29. Tennessee Titans (0-1) – Cam Ward’s back-to-back sack debacle that cost the Titans 27 yards and field goal range exemplified rookie mistakes. However, why did Brian Callahan place his rookie quarterback in that position? Down 13-12, having just recovered a muffed punt at the Denver 24, why not prioritize running the ball three times, using up valuable clock time?
30. New Orleans Saints (0-1) – As I mentioned earlier, I think the Saints will solidify their position as the league’s least competitive team through 17 games. However, they still managed to stand their ground despite not being strong, narrowly outgaining the Cardinals and putting themselves in a position to tie late in the game, with the ball just 18 yards from Arizona’s end zone.
31. New York Giants (0-1) – Last weekend marked the first instance since 2019 where an underdog of 6.0+ failed to win a Week 1 game. The Giants were anticipated as an upset pick and had Washington right in their sights early on. After a promising 16-play drive yielding only three points, they then forced a three-and-out. Unfortunately, their subsequent four drives resulted in just 24 yards and four punts, effectively sealing their fate.
32. Carolina Panthers (0-1) – Throughout the summer, I’ve consistently maintained that Carolina’s second-half resurgence last season was an anomaly. This team remains in dire straits. While the defense showcased improvements initially, they eventually faltered, struggling to hold their ground. Carolina’s two interceptions, a fumble, and two turnovers on downs painted a troubling picture. Bryce Young’s performance culminated in a pick-six that was fortunately negated by a penalty, solidifying my view of them as the weakest team in Week 1.
Robert Ferringo has an impressive track record with seven out of ten winning football seasons, highlighted by a remarkable +10,660 profit last season. From 2010 to 2019, he amassed nearly +40,000 in profit for an average of about +4,000 annually. With 11 out of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months, he excels with football futures rated 5.0+ and has had 16 out of 19 winning Super Bowls. As a member of the Football Writers Association of America, he’s gearing up for another exceptional football season. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
Receive NFL picks for every game, or if you seek our top-tier premium picks from experts, register for your free $60 account with a guarantee.
Source link
