Engaging in survivor pools is among the most exhilarating methods to wager on the NFL. Before single-game betting became prevalent, survivor pools offered a straightforward yet intricate format. The concept is simple: each week throughout the 18-week season, you select one team to secure an outright victory. Point spreads and betting odds are irrelevant as long as your chosen team wins, allowing you to ‘survive’ the week. Though it may seem easy to bet on the top favorite weekly, the twist is that you can only choose each team once in the season. For instance, if you bet on the formidable Philadelphia Eagles to win against the Dallas Cowboys in their opener, you cannot select the Eagles again for the remainder of the season. Consequently, your safer choices will diminish quickly, requiring strategic planning and early, calculated risks to remain viable in your survivor pool. Luckily, Doc’s Sports will accompany you on this journey, providing complimentary survivor pool insights weekly to help you maneuver through the complex landscape of survivor pools. Let’s dive into the 16 Week 1 matchups, ranked by confidence level from highest to lowest.
Doc’s Sports provides expert NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Denver Broncos emerge as the prime survivor pool selection, being the Week 1 favorite. Tennessee struggles both offensively and defensively, lacking sufficient offseason additions to compete with Denver. This Broncos squad harbors genuine Super Bowl ambitions, and neutralizing rookie QB Cam Ward will be imperative. Bo Nix is poised to shine in his sophomore start, and it’s hard to envision the Broncos faltering on their home turf. This choice may be a popular one, but sometimes, favoring the widely chosen option is a prudent strategy, especially when all entries remain active.
Washington Commanders (-6.5) vs. New York Giants
Generally, it’s wise to steer clear of divisional matchups in survivor pools, yet it’s improbable that the New York Giants could upset the Washington Commanders in Week 1. Jayden Daniels made an impressive debut last year for Washington, and the overall team quality has improved heading into this season. While the Commanders may not replicate last year’s success, they can start the season positively with a victory in front of their home crowd.
Arizona Cardinals (-6) vs. New Orleans Saints
Opting against the New Orleans Saints will likely be a favored tactic this season, and even a middling squad like the Cardinals can capitalize on this opportunity. Kyler Murray is overdue for a breakout campaign, though it may remain elusive. With both Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler struggling, the Saints find themselves in a precarious position, financially constrained with minimal young talent, making a winless season a real possibility. Arizona’s schedule bears few easier matches, making this a wise choice if you want an alternative to the Broncos.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
After a disappointing Super Bowl performance last season, the Kansas City Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, are primed to dominate the Chargers. While the international aspect might introduce an unexpected twist, Kansas City has historically bested the Chargers. Using the Chiefs in Week 1, however, could be risky with safer picks readily available.
New England Patriots (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Patriots possess several attractive elements for this matchup. Drake Maye has been steadily improving on the field, and Geno Smith may require time to adapt to his new offense. Furthermore, New England’s defensive prowess will complicate that adjustment. Expect a low-scoring contest, favoring the Patriots’ style of play. If you’re considering varying your strategy in Week 1, selecting the Patriots could serve as the week’s contrarian choice.
Indianapolis Colts (-2) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Colts’ unexpected decision to start Daniel Jones in Week 1 raises eyebrows, yet he remains a dependable NFL starter while Anthony Richardson continues to develop. The Dolphins are grappling with numerous issues organizationally, making a positive Week 1 result essential for morale. However, the Colts appear to have the edge at nearly every position, which should translate to a home win.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys
This matchup poses a potential trap for the week. The Eagles, coming off a Super Bowl run, could experience a hangover against a determined Cowboys team. Dallas is poised to outperform expectations this season, and an upset is entirely plausible. The Cowboys are among the few teams capable of matching the Eagles’ physicality, so this game might be closer than anticipated. Nonetheless, the Eagles are still an intimidating opponent likely to clinch the victory.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. New York Jets
How will Aaron Rodgers perform with the Steelers? The seasoned quarterback has the defensive support needed to excel, and I anticipate a much stronger showing compared to his first game with the Jets two years back. New York must rely on Justin Fields at quarterback, facing a fierce Steelers defense that can disrupt his game.
Chicago Bears (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
As the Bears and Vikings close out Week 1 on Monday night, Chicago emerges as a notable candidate this week. Minnesota remains uncertain about JJ McCarthy after a year inactive, whereas Caleb Williams showcased his talent in last year’s primetime matchups. Chicago made significant offseason changes that bolster their defense, potentially troubling the Vikings. Safer options exist, yet choosing the Bears this week wouldn’t be unwarranted.
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Divisional clashes often present unique challenges, especially against the Browns. With Cleveland unburdened by pressure at the season’s outset, Joe Burrow and the Bengals feel the urgency for results. A game against the physical Browns is always tough, likely turning physical and sluggish. Are the Bengals capable of winning? Yes. But I wouldn’t risk my survivor pool stake on them.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
This contest could carry significant playoff implications early in the season, as both franchises are considered dark horses. While CJ Stroud may improve upon last year’s sophomore slump, it’s essential not to overlook Matthew Stafford leading a motivated Rams team. The Rams have refined their formidable offense, set to score efficiently at home.
Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With home-field advantage in this divisional matchup, the Falcons are poised to seize victory in Georgia. Although Tampa Bay boasts plenty of offensive talent, their lack of effective run defense will likely allow Bijan Robinson to shine. If the Falcons take an early lead with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm, they’ll have a strong chance to control the game in the latter half.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) vs. Detroit Lions
If this game were scheduled later in the year, the Lions might be the pick. Despite Detroit’s on-field talent, possible miscommunications resulting from a new coaching staff could be a factor. Green Bay maintains greater continuity from the previous season and has the advantage of playing at Lambeau Field, slightly favoring them, though it may be wise to avoid this matchup.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Shipping out Geno Smith to make room for Sam Darnold could yield positive results for the Seahawks in Week 1. While it’s difficult to overlook the 49ers any week, they struggled last season, losing 7 of their last 8 games. With many players still dealing with injuries and suspensions, the Seahawks hold the advantage of playing at home during a challenging season ahead.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Neither of these struggling teams is a reliable choice for your survivor pool this early in the season. One may emerge as a solid option later, but currently, neither can inspire trust.
Baltimore Ravens (+1) vs. Buffalo Bills
With two of the league’s elite teams squaring off, using either in a close matchup like this is inadvisable. If you’re considering a pick in Week 1, be sure to refresh your understanding of the survivor pool guidelines.
Official survivor pool pick of the week: Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans
Contrarian pick of the week: New England Patriots over Las Vegas Raiders
Teams used: None
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