Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction for 1/21/2026: Preview and Pick

Home » Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction for 1/21/2026: Preview and Pick

  • Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks
  • Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
  • Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
  • Broadcast: ESPN

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The Oklahoma City Thunder (36-8) are set to face off against the Milwaukee Bucks (18-24) at Fiserv Forum this Wednesday.

NBA Picks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder predictions best bet odds

In their previous game, the Thunder defeated the Cavaliers decisively with a score of 136-104. Oklahoma City recorded 17 fouls while the Cavaliers accumulated 18. The Thunder made 8 out of 35 three-point attempts, and Cleveland achieved an 80.0% success rate at the free-throw line, converting 28 of 35 attempts. Cleveland also tallied 54 rebounds (20 offensive and 34 defensive), along with 3 blocks and 30 assists, while making 6 steals. Defensively, Oklahoma City allowed Cleveland to shoot 37.4%, making 34 of 91 field-goal attempts. The Thunder notched 38 assists, forced 19 turnovers, and recorded 11 steals. They collected 46 rebounds, with 8 being offensive, and converted 13 of 20 free-throw shots (65.0%). Oklahoma City concluded the game with a field goal success rate of 55.6%, hitting 50 out of 90, including 23 three-pointers from 47 attempts.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was pivotal for the Thunder. He posted a field-goal percentage of 60.0% and dished out 3 assists in 34 minutes of play, grabbing 1 rebound and scoring an impressive 30 points on 12 out of 20 shooting.

Oklahoma City enters this matchup with a solid record of 36-8 thus far in the season. They are averaging 121.4 points per game, ranking 2nd in the NBA, and shooting at a rate of 49.1% from the field. The Thunder are also hitting 36.2% from beyond the arc, contributing to 590 successful three-pointers out of 1,630 attempts, while maintaining an 82.5% accuracy at the free-throw line. As a team, Oklahoma City is securing 43.8 rebounds per game and achieves 1,133 assists this season, placing them 13th in the league in passing efficiency. They are committing 12.3 turnovers and averaging 20.4 personal fouls each night.

On the defensive side, the Thunder are effectively forcing 17.8 turnovers per game from opponents and drawing 21.3 fouls. They allow 37.2% shooting from three-point territory and lead the NBA in points allowed per game (108.0). Defensively, they permit an opponent shooting percentage of 43.0% (1,663 out of 3,865) and concede 45.3 rebounds on average. They also rank 6th in the league for the number of assists allowed, with a total of 1,076 during the season.

In their previous game, the Bucks narrowly defeated the Hawks 112-110. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to grab 46 total rebounds (8 on the offensive end). The Bucks shot 28.6% from three, hitting 12 out of 42 attempts, and converted 20 of 24 free throws (83.3%). Defensively, they limited the Hawks to a shooting percentage of 40.6% from the field (39 of 96 attempts). Milwaukee shot 39 out of 79 overall, achieving a field-goal percentage of 49.4%. From long range, they nailed 16 of 36 three-pointers (44.4%) and converted 72.0% at the free-throw line. The Hawks committed 17 fouls, awarding the Bucks 25 free-throw attempts, and Milwaukee secured 54 total rebounds (34 defensive, 20 offensive).

Giannis Antetokounmpo was a key contributor for the Bucks, shooting 7 of 12 for a field-goal percentage of 58.3%, along with 17 rebounds, for a total of 21 points in 30 minutes, adding 6 assists.

Currently, Milwaukee holds a record of 18-24 this season. The Bucks commit an average of 20.7 fouls per game and have a free-throw shooting rate of 73.5%. They average 26.2 assists per game, ranking 15th in the NBA, and turn the ball over 14.8 times a game. Milwaukee has scored 4,721 points this season, averaging 112.4 points per game, and grabs 40.4 rebounds per game. With a shooting percentage of 48.3% from the field, they rank 5th in the league in offensive execution.

Milwaukee’s defense permits 36.7% shooting from three-point range (588 of 1,602) and allows opponents to hit 77.6% of free throw attempts. They concede an average of 27.1 assists and 44.7 rebounds per game, ranking 18th for both metrics in the NBA. On the defensive front, the Bucks allow 115.6 points per game, placing them 15th in the league. They force 14.0 turnovers per game and have limited teams to a 46.7% field-goal success rate, ranking 12th in the league.

Which team will cover the spread tonight?

Prediction: Choose Milwaukee

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Pick: Milwaukee Bucks
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