Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Monday, August 11, 2025
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio
Bets/Odds: Philadelphia (-160) Cincinnati (+132)
At Great American Ball Park, the Cincinnati Reds (60-56) will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (65-49) on Monday evening. The moneyline for this showdown has Philadelphia favored at -160, while Cincinnati is set at +132. The over/under for the game stands at 8 runs. Anticipated starting pitchers include Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Andrew Abbott for the Reds.
The Philadelphia Phillies boast a slugging percentage of .417, having struck out 922 times and drawn 381 walks this season. They’ve totaled 512 RBIs and 988 hits, leading to a team batting average of .255. The Phillies have hit 184 doubles and cleared the fences 137 times. Currently, they have scored 535 runs, with an on-base percentage of .326. As a group, the Phillies are averaging 4.7 runs per game, placing them 9th in MLB.
The pitching staff holds a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.35, with a combined WHIP of 1.24. Phillies pitchers have allowed 127 home runs and 456 runs (6th in the league). They have surrendered 943 hits this season, averaging 8.4 hits per 9 innings, and have an ERA of 3.76 (9th in MLB), with a total of 1,044 strikeouts. The bullpen has walked 312 batters, and the team FIP is recorded at 3.71 for the season.
This year, the Phillies have deployed 349 relievers, with the bullpen inheriting 106 runners; 32.1% of those scored. They have tallied 29 saves, albeit missing 17 out of 46 save opportunities, resulting in a save rate of 63.0% across 95 save situations. The relievers also have notched 48 holds this season (ranked 26th in MLB). Phillies pitchers have faced opponents with runners on base 74 times, along with 114 high-leverage appearances.
With a total of 3,046 putouts, the Philadelphia Phillies have recorded 987 assists and committed 42 errors this season. Their fielding percentage stands at .990, placing them 3rd in the league, and they have successfully turned 75 double plays. They manage to convert 69.2% of balls in play into outs across 9,138 innings, ranking 21st in the majors.
Aaron Nola has pitched 1,670 innings in his career, accumulating 1,831 strikeouts. With a career record of 105-86, he registered a FIP of 3.72 and has faced 6,855 batters. Nola’s ERA is set at 3.78, allowing 701 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.149 and 1,482 hits conceded (averaging 8.0 hits per nine innings) paired with 437 walks.
The Cincinnati Reds have established a team on-base percentage of .318, with a batting average of .246 this season. They have struck out 1,000 times (9th in the league) and achieved 956 hits. The Reds have smacked 117 home runs, combining for 490 RBIs. Their slugging percentage sits at .390 as they generate 4.49 runs per game, ranking 12th in the league. They’ve hit 181 doubles, drawn 381 walks, and scored 521 runs.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff maintains a WHIP of 1.245 and a FIP of 4.11. They rank 6th in the league for total hits allowed, with 907. The team has allowed 486 runs throughout the season, resulting in a collective ERA of 3.89 (443 earned runs). Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.40 (959 strikeouts to 368 walks) and they have given up 131 home runs, while allowing 4.27 runs per 9 innings (14th in MLB).
In 116 save situations, the Reds have achieved 72 holds, with 14 blown saves. Cincinnati has utilized relief pitchers in 42 save scenarios, securing 28 saves. Their bullpen has been active in 105 high-leverage situations and 99 instances with runners on base. The inherited scoring rate for Reds relief pitchers is 34.0% from 156 inherited runners. They hold the 8th best save percentage at 66.7%, having called on 395 relievers this season.
Over 9,222 innings played, the Reds have recorded a defensive efficiency of 71.2% (5th in MLB). They have executed 68 double plays and maintain a fielding percentage of .985 (20th in MLB). This season, the Reds have 874 assists, 60 errors, and 3,074 putouts.
Throughout his career, Andrew Abbott has allowed 322 hits and secured 333 strikeouts in 362 innings pitched. He has permitted 134 earned runs, holding a WHIP of 1.251 and a FIP of 3.3. Abbott boasts a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and has faced 1,516 opponents in his MLB tenure, with a 26-18 career record and an ERA of 3.33, allowing 8.0 hits per nine innings.
Who will emerge triumphant in tonight’s MLB matchup, either against the spread or the moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Selection: Back Cincinnati (+132)
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