Pittsburgh Pirates versus Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions

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  • Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers
  • Date: Monday, June 23, 2025
  • Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
  • Broadcast: FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin
  • Betting Odds: Pittsburgh (+126) Milwaukee (-152)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (30-46) are traveling to American Family Field on Monday to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers (40-35). The moneyline for this matchup places the Pirates at +126 and the Brewers at -152, with the total set at 8.5. The starting pitchers for the game will be Carmen Mlodzinski and Chad Patrick.

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The Pirates have secured 93 doubles as a team and have launched 53 home runs this season. Pittsburgh holds a slugging percentage of .336, accumulating 661 strikeouts while earning 253 walks. As a collective, the Pirates average 3.2 runs per game, ranking them 30th in the league. They have tallied 235 RBIs and 564 hits, maintaining a batting average of .225 and a team on-base percentage of .302 with 245 runs scored.

 

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The Pirates have an impressive team earned run average of 3.82 this season, ranking 12th in the league, having struck out 565 batters. They have allowed 65 home runs and 306 total runs (14th in MLB). Pittsburgh’s pitchers have issued 226 walks, leading to a FIP of 3.76. The Pirates have conceded 582 hits (7.8 per 9 innings) along with 286 earned runs, achieving a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.20.

Pirates pitchers have faced runners on base 69 times and appeared 83 times in high-leverage situations. The bullpen has notched 39 holds this season (20th in MLB) and recorded a 53.3% save rate across 71 save opportunities, converting 16 saves. With 107 inherited runners, they have allowed 37.4% to score, deploying 240 relief pitchers this year.

With 2,023 putouts, 669 assists, and 37 errors, the Pirates maintain a fielding percentage of .986, placing 17th in the league and turning 63 double plays. They convert 71.7% of balls in play into outs over their 6,069 innings pitched, ranking 4th among major league teams.

Mlodzinski (9-13 career record) has achieved a FIP of 3.90 facing 561 MLB hitters. He has permitted 128 hits (8.9 hits per 9 innings) and issued 50 walks, with an earned run average of 3.96 (57 earned runs). With a WHIP of 1.376 over 129 innings, he has accumulated 111 strikeouts in his MLB career.

The Brewers have a team SLG% of .369 and they average 4.36 runs per game (12th in the league). They have struck 104 doubles, garnered 255 walks, and scored 327 runs. Milwaukee has hit 69 home runs this season and driven in 303 RBIs. They have 620 strikeouts (15th in the league) and recorded 593 hits, achieving an on-base percentage of .314 and a batting average of .238 this year.

The Brewers’ pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.298 and a FIP of 4.12. They maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.40 (620 strikeouts to 267 walks) and rank 14th in the league for total hits allowed with 595. They have surrendered 81 home runs, averaging 4.16 runs allowed per nine innings (13th in the league). Milwaukee has given up 307 runs this year, posting a team ERA of 3.85.

In 81 save opportunities, the Brewers have recorded 49 holds and suffered 10 blown saves. Their bullpen has taken the mound in 30 save chances, securing 20 saves. They have appeared 86 times in high-pressure scenarios and 70 times with runners. Milwaukee’s relievers have a 34.3% inherited score percentage from 105 inherited runners, ranking 12th in MLB with a 66.7% save percentage, employing 262 relief pitchers this season.

Over 5,979 innings, the Brewers showcase a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (13th in MLB). They have turned 55 double plays and possess a fielding percentage of .986 (20th in baseball), accumulating 593 assists, 38 errors, and 1,993 putouts this season.

In his career, Patrick has conceded 76 hits and amassed 76 strikeouts in 79 innings. With a 3-7 career record, he has a 3.52 ERA allowing 8.6 hits per nine innings. He has given up 31 earned runs, registering a WHIP of 1.288 and a FIP of 3.5. His strikeout to walk ratio stands at 2.92, facing 337 hitters throughout his professional baseball journey.

Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or on the moneyline?

Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Bet on Milwaukee (-152)

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