Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox
Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Broadcast: NESN
Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates (+126) Boston Red Sox (-152)
The Boston Red Sox (75-60) will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-76) this Sunday at Fenway Park. The moneyline for this matchup features the Pirates at +126 and the Red Sox opening at -152, with the over/under set at 8.5. Mitch Keller and Lucas Giolito are set to take the mound as the starting pitchers.
The Pirates have achieved 199 doubles and hit 98 home runs this season. Their slugging percentage stands at .352, with 1,169 strikeouts and 433 walks taken. Collectively, the Pirates average 3.6 runs per game, ranking them 30th in the league. They have recorded 467 RBIs and 1,043 total hits, giving them a batting average of .233 and an on-base percentage of .305.
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The Pirates have a team ERA of 3.93 this season, placing them 14th in the league, with a total of 1,063 strikeouts. This pitching staff has allowed 129 home runs and has given up 552 runs, ranking 9th in the league. The Pirates have walked 388 batters, and their FIP stands at 3.88. They’ve conceded 1,057 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 520 earned runs, with a K/BB ratio of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.21.
The Pirates’ bullpen has recorded a save rate of 58.0%, entering 110 save situations. Relief pitchers inherited 187 base runners this season, with 36.9% scoring. They’ve faced runners on base 120 times during 130 high leverage situations, utilizing 417 relievers throughout the year, tallying 58 holds (25th in MLB). They have achieved 29 saves out of 50 opportunities.
This season, the Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied 3,548 putouts, 1,108 assists, and 63 errors, giving them a fielding percentage of .987, which ranks 13th in the majors. They’ve accomplished 95 double plays and have converted 71.0% of balls in play into outs over 10,644 innings, positioning them 6th overall.
Keller, with a career record of 42-62, has a FIP of 4.48 against 3,713 batters throughout his MLB tenure. He has allowed 894 hits (9.4 hits per 9 innings) and walked 291 batters. His ERA is 4.55 (with 431 earned runs), and he maintains a WHIP of 1.391 over 852 innings pitched with 812 strikeouts.
On the other hand, the Boston Red Sox have hit 163 home runs and recorded 638 RBIs this season. They have also achieved 271 doubles, walked 441 times, and scored 668 runs overall. The Red Sox are enjoying an on-base percentage of .323 along with a .252 batting average, ranking 5th in the league in runs scored at 4.95 per game. Their strikeout count stands at 1,192 (4th in the league) along with 1,167 total base hits.
The Red Sox pitching staff holds a team WHIP of 1.279 and a FIP of 4.00 for the season. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.30, with 1,116 strikeouts opposite 439 walks. They are currently 17th in MLB for total hits allowed, giving up 1,107 hits and 137 home runs, averaging 4.17 runs per 9 innings (9th in the league). Boston’s team ERA is 3.66, having surrendered 560 runs, including 491 earned runs.
The Boston bullpen has an inherited score rate of 30.9% from their 178 inherited runners. They have appeared 165 times in high leverage situations and have faced runners on base 134 times. The Red Sox have had 135 save chances, tallying 72 holds and 23 blown saves. Currently, they are ranked 19th in save rate at 62.3%, using 439 relievers this season, and have successfully converted 38 out of 61 save opportunities.
Over 10,800 innings played, the Red Sox have achieved a defensive efficiency of 69.3% (21st in the majors). Meanwhile, Boston has completed 107 double plays and holds a fielding percentage of .980 (29th in MLB). They have recorded 1,228 assists, 101 errors, and 3,600 putouts this season.
Throughout his career, Giolito has surrendered 994 hits while achieving 1,176 strikeouts in 1,132 innings pitched. Giolito, who has a win-loss record of 70-64, maintains an ERA of 4.33, allowing 7.9 hits per nine innings and a WHIP of 1.251. His FIP stands at 4.3, with a K/BB ratio of 2.78 against 4,755 batters faced.
Who will triumph in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Recommendation: Bet on Boston (-152)
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