Matchup: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Event Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
Betting Lines: Miami (+126) New York (-152)
The New York Mets (72-62) will host the Miami Marlins (63-71) this Sunday at Citi Field. The betting line shows Miami at +126 while New York is set at -152. The over/under for this game is established at 8.5 runs. Expected starting pitchers are Sandy Alcantara and Kodai Senga.
The Miami Marlins are averaging 4.3 runs per game, ranking 19th in the league. They have managed a total of 574 runs this season, coupled with a team on-base percentage of .313. The Marlins have recorded 218 doubles and 128 home runs. They’ve accumulated 547 RBIs and 1,140 hits, with a batting average of .249. Miami’s slugging percentage stands at .392, and they have struck out 1,046 times while walking 401.
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The strikeout-to-walk ratio for the Marlins is 2.52, and the pitching staff owns a collective WHIP of 1.30. Marlins pitchers have allowed 150 home runs and 654 total runs this season (25th overall). They’ve given up 1,127 hits (8.5 hits per 9 innings) and 605 earned runs, resulting in a team ERA of 4.57 (also 25th in MLB). They have recorded 1,057 strikeouts while issuing 420 walks, with a team FIP of 4.20.
Marlins relief pitchers have had 104 opportunities with runners on base, participating in 145 high-pressure situations this season. The relievers have achieved 72 holds, ranking 18th in MLB, and maintain a 63.5% save percentage after entering 125 save opportunities. They have successfully converted 33 saves but have failed in 19 out of 52 chances. Of the 152 inherited runners, 32.2% have scored this season. In total, 414 Marlins have taken the mound this year.
The Marlins have converted 70.0% of batted balls into outs throughout 10,632 innings, placing them 14th in the league. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the way in putouts with 3,544, coupled with 1,139 assists and 65 errors. Their fielding rate is .986, positioning them 17th in the league, with 91 double plays turned.
Sandy Alcantara has pitched 1,041 innings in his career, accumulating 902 strikeouts. With an ERA of 3.67 (424 earned runs allowed), his career WHIP is 1.183. He has surrendered 908 hits (7.8 hits per nine innings) and issued 324 walks, now holding a 48-66 career mark with a FIP of 3.61 after facing 4,292 batters in Major League Baseball.
The New York Mets have recorded an on-base percentage of .327 along with a batting average of .248 for the season. They have been struck out 1,075 times (20th in MLB) and have gathered a total of 1,117 hits. The Mets have hit 178 home runs and driven in 607 runs, with a team slugging percentage of .423. They score an average of 4.64 runs per game (10th in MLB), along with 219 doubles and 469 walks, totaling 622 runs.
On the mound, the Mets have given up 561 runs this year, maintaining a team ERA of 3.78 (499 earned runs allowed). They’ve allowed 119 home runs and give up an average of 4.25 runs per 9 innings (12th in MLB). Their WHIP is at 1.307, with a team FIP of 3.85. The Mets also showcase a K/BB ratio of 8.70 (1,146 strikeouts against 472 walks), ranking them 12th overall in hits allowed with 1,079.
New York’s relief pitchers have inherited 211 runners this season with a 34.6% scoring percentage. They have appeared in 162 high-leverage situations and 142 times with runners on base. Among 143 save opportunities, they have achieved 84 holds and have 23 blown saves. With a save percentage of 61.0%, they are 21st in the league after sending 437 relievers to the mound. They have had 59 save opportunities, successfully converting 36.
In 10,602 innings played, the Mets are currently operating at a 69.5% defensive efficiency (20th in the league). They have recorded 98 double plays and maintain a fielding percentage of .987 (9th in MLB). So far, they have achieved 1,199 assists, committed 60 errors, and completed 3,534 putouts this season.
In his MLB career, Senga has allowed 215 hits with 314 strikeouts in 279 innings pitched. With a 20-12 career record, his ERA stands at 2.90, allowing 6.9 hits per 9 innings. He has permitted 90 earned runs, possessing a WHIP of 1.238 and a FIP of 2.90. His K/BB ratio is at 2.40, having faced 1,174 batters in his career.
Who will emerge victorious this evening in the MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Prediction: Bet on Miami (+126)
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