Predictions and Odds for Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van on 12/06/2025 at UFC 323

• Matchup: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
• Event: UFC 323
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
• Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025

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On Saturday, December 6, 2025, Alexandre Pantoja will face off against Joshua Van at UFC 323. The initial odds feature Pantoja at -225 and Van at +190.

Known as “The Cannibal,” Alexandre Pantoja enters this fight with a professional record of 30 wins and 5 losses. At the age of 35, he weighs in at 125 lbs and stands 5’5″ tall, boasting a reach of 67″. Conversely, Joshua “The Fearless” Van also measures 5’5″ and competes at 125 lbs with a record of 15-2-0. The 24-year-old has a wingspan of 65″. In metrics of significant strikes, Pantoja averages 4.36 per minute, while Van impressively lands 8.86 significant strikes each minute. Pantoja connects with 50% of his attempted strikes, whereas Van has a striking accuracy of 56%. Defensively, Pantoja absorbs 3.88 significant strikes per minute, and Van takes in 6.36. Pantoja successfully defends against 49% of his opponents’ strikes, while Van manages to block 57%.

In terms of grappling, Pantoja excels, averaging 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, successfully completing 47% of his attempts while fending off 69% of incoming takedowns from adversaries. Meanwhile, Van shows proficiency with a 63% success rate on takedowns and has an impressive 81% takedown defense rate. Pantoja averages 1.0 submission attempt per 15 minutes, contrasting Van’s 0.5 submissions during the same timeframe.

In his last fight, Alexandre Pantoja faced Kai Kara-France and secured a victory via rear naked choke in the third round. In that match, Kara-France connected with 57 of 86 total strikes. Pantoja landed 70 out of 107 total strikes, achieving a significant strike rate of 55%. Kara-France scored 38 of 67 significant strikes, equating to a 56% accuracy, while Pantoja connected on 55% of significant strikes, landing 42 of 76. The vast majority of these strikes were delivered at distance.

In his last Octagon appearance, Joshua Van competed against Brandon Royval, claiming victory by unanimous decision after three rounds. Royval successfully landed 95% of his significant strikes at distance, but Van landed 88% of his distance strikes. In total, Van connected on 66% of significant strikes with 204 of 305, hitting 138 of 232 significant strikes to the head. Conversely, Royval landed 215 of 467 significant strikes throughout the matchup.

Notable Fights on the Card

One exciting matchup to watch is Brandon Moreno versus Tatsuro Taira. Moreno, seeking to improve his record of 23-8-2, weighs 125 lbs and stands 5’7″ with a reach of 70″. Taira, also 5’7″ and weighing 125 lbs, aims to increase his career total of 17-1-0. In grappling, Moreno achieves takedowns 1.51 times per 15 minutes, while Taira excels with 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. Striking-wise, Moreno is landing 3.96 strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy, contrasting Taira’s 60% striking accuracy while landing an average of 2.87 per minute.

Another highly anticipated fight features Payton Talbott facing off against Henry Cejudo. Cejudo enters the ring with a 16-5-0 record, weighing 135 lbs and standing at 5’4″. Meanwhile, Talbott, a switch fighter at 135 lbs, stands 5’10” with a reach of 70″. Cejudo is proficient at preventing takedowns, defending 76% of attempts while finishing 31% of his own. Talbott stops 76% of takedown attempts and has a 25% takedown completion rate. In striking, Cejudo absorbs 3.46 strikes per minute and lands 3.82, while Talbott takes in 3.26 strikes but delivers an impressive 6.05 strikes per minute.

Which fighter will prevail in tonight’s UFC showdown against the spread?

Prediction: Opt for Joshua Van (+190)