San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction for 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Home » San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction for 2/28/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

  • Matchup: San Diego State Aztecs vs New Mexico Lobos
  • Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
  • Venue: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
  • Broadcast: ESPN+

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The San Diego State Aztecs (19-8) are traveling to The Pit this Saturday, aiming to secure a victory against the New Mexico Lobos (21-7).

college basketball picks Reese Dixon Waters San Diego State Aztecs predictions best bet odds

In their previous outing, the San Diego State Aztecs triumphed over Utah State with a score of 89-72. They committed 21 personal fouls while Utah State incurred 25. From three-point range, the Aztecs connected on 8 of 27 attempts. Utah State managed a free throw percentage of 66.7%, converting 16 of their 24 shots. On the boards, the Aggies secured 27 rebounds (10 offensive, 17 defensive) but did not register any blocks. Utah State also recorded 11 assists and had 6 steals during the game. Defensively, the Aztecs allowed the opponent to shoot 40.4%, hitting 23 out of 57 attempts. They dished out 18 assists, forced 12 turnovers, and garnered 3 steals. In total, San Diego State grabbed 36 rebounds, including 12 on the offensive end. At the free-throw line, the Aztecs converted 22 of 33 attempts, finishing with a 66.7% shooting rate. They closed the game with a 54.5% field goal percentage (30 out of 55) and drained 7 of 16 three-point attempts.

One standout player was Reese Dixon-Waters, who scored 20 points on 6 of 13 shooting, contributing 4 rebounds in 33 minutes of play. He managed a shooting percentage of 46.2% but did not make any assists.

The Aztecs arrive for this matchup with a season record of 19-8. They average 12.3 turnovers per game and commit 18.9 fouls. As a team, San Diego State grabs 35.7 rebounds per game and has accumulated 417 assists throughout the season, ranking 136th nationally in assists. They hit 35.8% of their three-point attempts (185 of 517) and maintain a free-throw shooting percentage of 75.3%. They score an average of 79.3 points per game (105th in the nation) while shooting 47.6% from the floor.

On defense, the Aztecs force an average of 15.1 turnovers per game while committing 17.7 fouls. They rank 110th in Division 1 for assists allowed, giving up 362 assists for the season. The Aztecs’ defense permits opponents to shoot at 39.6%, allowing 609 of 1,538 shots. They concede 33.4 rebounds per game. In three-point defense, they rank 79th nationally, allowing 32.6% shooting from beyond the arc and giving up an average of 70.1 points per game.

In their latest game, the New Mexico Lobos suffered a 67-60 defeat against Nevada. On the boards, New Mexico allowed Nevada to secure 41 rebounds (10 offensive). The Lobos shot 29.4% from three-point range, hitting 5 of 17 attempts, and were 16 out of 22 from the free-throw line (72.7%). They allowed their opponent to shoot 39.7% from the floor, with Nevada making 23 of their 58 attempts. New Mexico finished 21 out of 55 from the floor for a shooting percentage of 38.2%. From beyond the arc, the Lobos converted 6 of 21 attempts (28.6%) and managed 12 free throws with a conversion rate of 57.1%. Nevada’s 19 fouls gave the Lobos 21 free-throw attempts. They turned the ball over 12 times while registering 8 steals. Overall, New Mexico collected 31 rebounds, consisting of 25 defensive and 6 offensive boards.

Jake Hall was a key contributor for the Lobos, posting 17 points in 35 minutes on the court, along with 2 assists. He shot 6 of 15, achieving a field goal percentage of 40.0%, while adding 1 rebound.

New Mexico holds a season record of 21-7. Offensively, the Lobos shoot 46.2% from the field, placing them 131st in college basketball. They have scored a total of 2,258 points this season, averaging 80.6 per game, and grab 36.2 rebounds per game. They register 14.7 assists per contest, ranking 127th in the nation, and commit 10.9 turnovers per game. The Lobos average 17.3 fouls and excel at the free-throw line with a 74.0% success rate.

Defensively, New Mexico allows opponents a shooting percentage of 29.3% on three-pointers (225 of 769), while permitting 73.6% from the free-throw line. They give up 12.3 assists and 34.5 rebounds each game, ranking them 87th and 195th respectively in collegiate basketball. The Lobos rank 65th in the nation for points allowed per game (69.4), forcing 13.8 turnovers while allowing teams to shoot at 41.1% from the field (41st in college basketball).

Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s NCAA matchup against the spread?

Prediction: Take San Diego State

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Pick: San Diego State Aztecs
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