- Sofia Montenegro vs Ernesta Kareckaite: A Clash of Titans
- UFC Mexico Showdown
- Arena CDMX, Mexico City
- Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
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On Saturday, February 28, 2026, Sofia Montenegro is set to battle Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Mexico. The initial betting odds place Montenegro at +230 and Kareckaite at -270.
Sofia “La Bruja” Montenegro aims to enhance her record of 6-2-0. This 26-year-old fighter competes at 125 lbs, standing at 5′ 6″ with a reach of 67″. In contrast, Ernesta “Heavy-Handed” Kareckaite, aged 27, measures 5′ 9″ and weighs in at 125 lbs, holding a reach of 71″. Montenegro connects with an average of 4.27 significant strikes per minute, while Kareckaite impressively lands 7.38. Montenegro’s striking accuracy stands at 40%, while Kareckaite boasts a 42% accuracy rate. Defensively, Montenegro absorbs 5.67 significant strikes per minute, whereas Kareckaite allows 6.09. Both fighters successfully evade 48% of their opponent’s significant strikes.
| UFC Mexico Event Details | Sofia Montenegro | Ernesta Kareckaite |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Odds | +230 | -270 |
| Current Record | 6-2-0 | 6-1-1 |
| Average Fight Duration | 15:00 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5′ 6″ | 5′ 9″ |
| Weight Class | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 67″ | 71″ |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.27 | 7.38 |
| Strike Accuracy | 40% | 42% |
In grappling terms, Sofia Montenegro demonstrates superior grappling ability, achieving 1.00 takedown every 15 minutes with a success rate of 25%. She effectively defends against 85% of takedown attempts. In contrast, Kareckaite successfully accomplishes takedowns on 66% of her attempts, thwarting 82% of opponent attempts. Montenegro attempts 0.5 submissions per three rounds, while Kareckaite aims for 0.2 submissions in the same timeframe.
In her most recent bout, Sofia Montenegro faced Jeisla Chaves, where she suffered a split decision loss in the third round. Chaves achieved 97 out of 185 total strikes, while Montenegro recorded 82 of 188. In the significant strikes category, Chaves landed 85 of 166—51% accuracy—while Montenegro hit 40% of her significant strikes, totaling 64 of 160. Notably, the distance strikes accounted for a significant portion of their exchanges.
For Ernesta Kareckaite, her last appearance in the Octagon was against Nicolle Caliari, resulting in a split decision victory in round three. In that bout, Kareckaite connected on 91% of her significant strikes at range, totalling 95 of 226. Caliari recorded 67 of 166 significant strikes, showcasing the high-level striking exchanges during the fight.
Don’t miss Brandon Moreno as he faces Lone’er Kavanagh in another exciting matchup. Moreno, with a record of 23-9-2, weighs 125 lbs and stands 5′ 7″ with a reach of 70″. Kavanagh, at 5′ 6″ and weighing in at 125 lbs, holds a record of 9-1-0. Moreno averages 3.89 strikes per minute, landing 44% of his attempts, while Kavanagh connects on 49% of his attempts, averaging 4.29 strikes per minute.
Additionally, watch as David Martinez collides with Marlon Vera, who boasts a record of 23-11-1. The 33-year-old fighter is 5′ 8″ and weighs in at 135 lbs, with a reach of 70″. Martinez, the orthodox fighter at 5′ 5″ and 135 lbs, has a record of 13-1-0 and a reach of 67″. Vera’s grapple defense stands at 72%, successfully executing takedowns 39% of the time. Martinez succeeds in just 15% of his takedown attempts but effectively defends against 85% of opponent attempts. In striking, Vera absorbs 5.37 strikes per minute but counters with 4.25, while Martinez takes 2.95 and counters with 4.85.
Who will capture victory in tonight’s thrilling UFC events?
Prediction: Bet on Ernesta Kareckaite (-270)
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