- Matchup: USF Bulls vs Louisville Cardinals
- Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026
- Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
- Broadcast: TNT
- Betting Odds: South Florida (+5)
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The USF Bulls (25-8) head to KeyBank Center on Thursday to face off against the Louisville Cardinals (23-10) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. South Florida enters the game as 5-point underdogs according to Vegas experts, with the over/under set at 164.5.
The USF Bulls recently faced Wichita State, securing a victory with a score of 70-55. The Bulls recorded 20 personal fouls, while Wichita State had 19. South Florida struggled beyond the arc, sinking only 4 of 19 attempts. Wichita State shot 65.0% from the free-throw line, converting 13 of 20. On the boards, Wichita State gathered 36 rebounds (10 offensive, 26 defensive) but did not register a block. They also recorded 8 assists and 7 steals. Defensively, South Florida held their opponents to 33.9% shooting, allowing 19 baskets out of 56 attempts. The Bulls recorded 13 assists, forced 13 turnovers, and earned 10 steals, while also collecting 33 rebounds (11 offensive). At the free-throw line, South Florida made 18 of 23 attempts for a percentage of 78.3%. They finished the game with a 37.7% shooting accuracy (23 of 61) and converted 6 of 22 from 3-point range.
Wes Enis was a significant contributor, achieving 33.3% shooting from the field with 1 assist. He played all 40 minutes, grabbed 4 rebounds, and scored 19 points on 7 of 21 shooting.
South Florida comes into this contest with an impressive season record of 25-8. They average 87.7 points per game (8th nationally) and maintain a field goal percentage of 43.9%. The Bulls are converting 33.2% from long range (318 of 958) and 74.4% from the charity stripe. Their rebounding average is 42.7 boards per game, and they rank 26th in Division 1 with a total of 567 assists this year. They turn the ball over 11.2 times per contest and commit 19.5 personal fouls on average.
On the defensive side, the Bulls force 14.3 turnovers each game while conceding 19.7 personal fouls. They allow opponents to shoot 33.9% from beyond the arc and rank 231st in college basketball for opponents’ points per game (75.5). They permit a shooting percentage of 41.3% (839 of 2,033) and average 37.7 rebounds per game, sitting at 178th in assists allowed with 430 this season.
In their last game, the Louisville Cardinals suffered a 78-73 defeat to Miami. They secured 25 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards, totaling 34 rebounds. The Cardinals turned the ball over 12 times and managed to earn 5 steals. Miami committed 17 fouls, providing Louisville with 17 attempts from the free-throw line, of which they converted 13 for a rate of 76.5%. From 3-point range, Louisville hit 6 of 24 attempts (25.0%) and achieved 48.2% shooting from the field (27 of 56). Conversely, Miami shot 46.6% (27 of 58) against them and managed to hit 5 of 13 attempts from deep for 38.5%. On the glass, Louisville allowed Miami 29 rebounds, with 9 being offensive.
Ryan Conwell played a significant role for the Cardinals, hitting 8 of 20 shots for 40.0% accuracy, while also grabbing 9 rebounds. He scored 22 points in 38 minutes on the court, adding 3 assists.
Louisville enters this matchup with a 23-10 record for the season. The Cardinals average 18.4 personal fouls per game and boast a free-throw rate of 76.9%. They dish out 17.1 assists per game (25th in Division 1) and average 11.6 turnovers. Louisville has scored a total of 2,797 points this year, averaging 84.8 points per game, and they collect 38.5 rebounds per contest. Offensively, they connect on 47.0% of their field-goal attempts, ranking 69th in the nation.
The Louisville defense allows 32.7% from 3-point range (251 of 768), while opponents convert 71.2% of free-throw attempts. They concede 12.2 assists and 33.1 rebounds per game, ranking 81st and 99th respectively in college basketball. Defensively, they are ranked 132nd in Division 1 for points allowed per game, giving up 72.2. They force an average of 11.8 turnovers per game and allow teams a shooting percentage of 42.4% (77th in the nation).
Who will dominate in this NCAA game against the spread?
Prediction: Take South Florida (+5)
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