Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Broadcast: NESN
Odds: Tampa Bay (-150), Boston (+125)
On Saturday, the Boston Red Sox (50-45) aim to secure a victory against the Tampa Bay Rays (50-44) at Fenway Park. The betting line has Tampa Bay favored at -150 compared to Boston’s opening of +125. The total for this game is set at 8 runs, with Shane Baz and Garrett Crochet slated to start for their respective teams.
Tampa Bay boasts a slugging percentage of .411 and has struck out 773 times, while walking 278 times. They have amassed 422 RBIs and recorded 826 hits this season, resulting in a batting average of .260. The Rays have hit 146 doubles and sent 105 balls over the fence, accumulating 444 runs and maintaining an on-base percentage of .322. As a unit, they average 4.7 runs per game, placing 7th in Major League Baseball.
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The Rays maintain a team ERA of 3.79 (11th in MLB), with 784 strikeouts recorded by their pitchers. They have allowed 125 home runs and 378 total runs (12th overall). Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has issued 267 walks, and their FIP stands at 4.26 this season. They have given up 741 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 353 earned runs, showcasing a K/BB ratio of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.20.
The Rays’ relief pitchers have faced base runners 70 times and have participated in 89 high-pressure situations, recording 52 holds (17th in MLB). Their save rate stands at 58.3%, with 21 successful saves from 36 opportunities. With 102 inherited runners this season, 37.3% have scored. Tampa Bay has utilized 295 relief pitchers up to this point.
Defensively, the Tampa Bay Rays have recorded 2,515 putouts, 855 assists, and 45 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .987, ranking 13th in MLB. They have successfully turned 93 double plays and converted 71.4% of balls in play into outs over 7,545 innings, ranking them 5th in the league.
Baz has pitched a total of 222 innings in his career, securing 221 strikeouts. With a career record of 15-9, he has a FIP of 3.79 after facing 919 batters. His earned run average is 3.84 (95 ER allowed) with a WHIP of 1.169, allowing 183 hits (7.4 per nine innings) and issuing 77 walks.
On the other hand, the Boston Red Sox have hit 120 home runs and driven in 461 runs, also recording 192 doubles and gaining walks on 311 occasions. They have scored a total of 481 runs, achieving an on-base percentage of .327 and batting average of .256 this season. With a team slugging percentage of .434, they average 5.06 runs per game, ranking 5th in MLB. They’ve struck out 862 times (3rd overall) and logged 843 hits.
Boston’s pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.312 and a team FIP of 3.88. They have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.40 (795 strikeouts vs. 320 walks). Currently, they rank 22nd in total hits allowed with 797, yielding 91 home runs and allowing 4.49 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB). They have surrendered 425 runs this season, with a team ERA of 3.89.
Boston’s bullpen has an inherited score rate of 33.6%, navigating high-pressure situations 118 times and 95 times with runners on base. In their 95 save opportunities, they’ve tallied 50 holds and recorded 18 blown saves, resulting in a 58.1% save percentage (22nd in the league). This year, they have sent 309 bullpen pitchers to the mound, converting 25 of 43 save chances into successful saves.
Defensively, the Red Sox have achieved 82 double plays and maintain a fielding percentage of .978 (29th in MLB). They recorded 876 assists, 76 errors, and 2,555 putouts this season. After 7,665 innings, they have a defensive efficiency of 68.4%, ranking 26th across the league.
In his career, Crochet has allowed 277 hits while striking out 445 batters over 339 innings. He has given up 112 earned runs and maintains a WHIP of 1.132 with a FIP of 2.9. His K/BB ratio is 4.16 after facing 1,394 batters, with an 18-23 record in his career and a 2.97 earned run average, allowing 7.4 hits per nine innings.
Which team will come out on top in this MLB showdown tonight?
Josh Schonwald’s Prediction: Bet on Tampa Bay (-150)
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