Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Date: Friday, July 11, 2025
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Broadcast: NESN
Betting Odds: Tampa Bay (-144) Boston (+120)
The Boston Red Sox (47-45) are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays (49-42) at Fenway Park this Friday. The betting line favors the Rays at -144, while the Red Sox sit at +120. The over/under for this game is set at 8 runs, featuring pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Dobbins.
The Tampa Bay Rays boast a slugging percentage of .409 and have recorded 752 strikeouts against 272 walks this season. The team has amassed 410 RBIs and 795 hits, maintaining a batting average of .259. With 141 doubles and 101 home runs, the Rays have scored a total of 432 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .322. As a unit, the Rays average 4.8 runs per game, placing them 7th in the league.
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This year, the Rays have achieved a team earned run average of 3.78, ranking them 14th in the league. Their pitchers have accumulated 761 strikeouts while yielding 123 home runs and a total of 367 runs (14th in MLB). The Rays have issued 252 walks, resulting in a season FIP of 4.25. They’ve allowed 725 hits (8.0 hits per 9 innings) and registered 342 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 3.02, and their collective WHIP is 1.20.
The Rays’ bullpen has faced opponents on base 68 times with 87 appearances in high-leverage situations, managing to secure 50 holds this campaign (17th in MLB). Their relief pitchers have a 60.0% save percentage, having entered 86 save situations with 21 saves recorded against 14 blown saves. Relief pitchers have inherited 99 base runners this season, with 38.4% scoring. In total, the Rays have utilized 287 relief pitchers throughout the year.
Defensively, the Tampa Bay Rays have achieved 2,440 putouts, 831 assists, and 45 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .986, placing them 13th in MLB. They have also turned 92 double plays, converting 71.2% of balls in play into outs over 7,320 innings, which ranks them 5th in professional baseball.
Drew Rasmussen has pitched for 399 innings with 377 strikeouts in his professional career. Holding a career record of 27-17, Rasmussen has a FIP of 2.89, facing 1,600 hitters. His ERA is 2.93, allowing 130 earned runs, and his WHIP is 1.072, with 325 hits allowed (7.3 hits per nine innings) and 103 walks issued.
The Boston Red Sox have recorded 114 home runs and 437 RBIs this season, tallying 186 doubles, 300 walks, and 457 runs overall. Their on-base percentage stands at .325, complemented by a batting average of .255. With a slugging percentage of .430, they average 4.97 runs per game, ranking 6th in the league. This season, they have struck out 843 times, which is the 3rd highest rate in the league, alongside 813 hits.
Boston’s pitching staff has given up 418 runs this season, holding an ERA of 3.94 with 361 earned runs. They’ve allowed 87 home runs and currently give up 4.56 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB). The Red Sox staff has a WHIP of 1.326 and a FIP of 3.88. Their K/BB ratio is approximately 8.40 (772 strikeouts to 316 walks), ranking 24th in total hits surrendered with 777.
During 93 save opportunities, the Red Sox bullpen has executed 49 holds and encountered 18 blown saves. Their pitchers have entered 42 save situations, converting 24 into successful saves. They’ve appeared in 115 high-leverage circumstances, with 95 instances featuring inherited runners. Boston’s inherited score percentage stands at 33.6% of 128 inherited runners. They rank 23rd in save percentage at 57.1%, utilizing 304 bullpen pitchers this season.
Defensively, the Red Sox have executed 79 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .978 (29th in MLB). With 847 assists, 75 errors, and 2,474 putouts, they have played 7,422 innings, achieving a defensive efficiency of 68.1% (27th in the majors).
In his professional career, Hunter Dobbins has allowed 59 hits while striking out 43 batters across 59 innings pitched. He has conceded 27 earned runs, carrying a WHIP of 1.269 and a FIP of 4.1. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.69, Dobbins has faced 248 opposing batters, currently holding a record of 4-1 with a 4.11 ERA, allowing 9.0 hits per 9 innings.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or the moneyline?
Josh Schonwald’s Prediction: Bet on Tampa Bay (-144)
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