Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs
Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Broadcast: Marquee
Betting Odds: Tampa Bay (+172), Chicago (-210)
This Sunday, the historic Wrigley Field will host an exciting showdown as the Chicago Cubs (83-63) face off against the Tampa Bay Rays (72-74). The moneyline for this matchup positions Tampa Bay at +172, whereas Chicago stands at -210. The total runs are projected at 8.5, with starting pitchers Adrian Houser and Shota Imanaga taking the mound.
On offense, the Tampa Bay Rays are clocking in an impressive slugging percentage of .403, alongside 1,246 strikeouts and 418 walks drawn throughout the season. The team has tallied 623 RBIs and collected 1,239 base hits, resulting in a team batting average of .252. Notably, the Rays have hit 219 doubles and launched 166 home runs, contributing to a total of 655 runs scored, with an on-base percentage (OBP) of .313. As it stands, Tampa Bay averages 4.5 runs per game, ranking 14th in Major League Baseball.
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Defensively, the Rays hold an ERA of 3.88, ranking 12th in MLB with 1,279 strikeouts recorded by their pitching staff. Opponents have hit 187 home runs against them, while they have allowed a total of 604 runs (9th in the league). Furthermore, the Rays have given up 1,141 hits, averaging 7.9 per nine innings, alongside 557 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at 3.05, contributing to a collective WHIP of 1.21.
In high-pressure scenarios, the Rays bullpen has entered the game 102 times with opponents on base and has encountered 139 high-leverage situations. So far, they secured 81 holds (16th in MLB) with a save rate of 56.9%, successfully converting 33 out of 58 save opportunities. The bullpen has inherited 150 runners this season, with 32.0% eventually scoring. Notably, Tampa Bay has deployed 465 relievers this year.
Fielding-wise, the Rays have converted a commendable 70.8% of balls in play into outs over 11,631 innings, ranking 6th in the league. They achieved 3,877 putouts, 1,274 assists, and 69 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .987, placing them 12th in MLB. They’ve turned 132 double plays thus far.
On a personal performance note, Adrian Houser has pitched 715 innings, accumulating 567 career strikeouts. With a 40-43 win-loss record and a FIP of 3.99, he has faced 3,061 batters in his major league career. His ERA sits at 4.05 with a WHIP of 1.360, allowing 697 hits (averaging 8.8 hits per nine innings) and issuing 276 walks.
On the other hand, the Chicago Cubs have racked up 196 home runs this season, alongside 696 RBIs. They’ve recorded 239 doubles and drawn 500 walks while scoring a total of 713 runs. The Cubs have an OBP of .319 and a batting average of .248, showcasing a slugging percentage (SLG) of .425. With a steady average of 4.88 runs per game, they’re currently 8th in MLB and have struck out 1,140 times, placing them 27th.
Collectively, the Cubs’ pitching has a WHIP of 1.191 and a FIP of 4.18. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 7.80, with 1,119 strikeouts compared to 370 walks allowed. Ranking 10th in MLB, they have permitted 1,172 hits and given up 179 homers; their ERA is 3.86 with 593 total runs surrendered (555 earned runs).
With 157 save chances, the Cubs’ bullpen has secured 99 holds along with 17 blown saves. They’ve called upon their relief pitchers in 55 save situations, successfully achieving 38 saves. Their relievers have played 146 times in high-leverage scenarios, with 94 instances featuring runners on base. The relief squad boasts a save percentage of 69.1%, ranking 5th in MLB, having utilized 474 bullpen pitchers this season.
Defensively, the Cubs rank 3rd in professional baseball with a 71.6% efficiency over 11,655 innings. They have completed 113 double plays and attained a fielding percentage of .989, placing them 5th in the league. Their defense also features 1,225 assists, 57 errors, and 3,885 putouts this season.
Regarding Imanaga, in his MLB career, he has allowed 246 hits while amassing 275 strikeouts across 302 innings pitched. With a 24-10 career record, he posts a 3.04 earned run average, having conceded 7.3 hits per nine innings. He has let in 102 earned runs, combining a WHIP of 0.983 and a FIP of 3.0. His strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 5.39, having faced 1,193 batters throughout his career.
Who will prevail in tonight’s MLB matchup, whether against the spread or the moneyline?
Guy Bruhn’s Prediction: Back Tampa Bay (+172)
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