Week 1 proved challenging for many NFL bettors. How was your experience?
The level of competition in today’s league is consistently impressive. Last week, the Dallas Cowboys nearly outperformed the reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Jets kept the Steelers on their toes until the final whistle.
If only we could leverage this parity to our advantage instead of against it. Professionals have identified a particular strategy to do just that.
However, I must caution you. We’ll be discussing the term that often elicits a groan—the parlay. It’s right up there with words like “Can’t” and “Hate.”
While many parlays can be less favorable, not all of them are problematic. For instance, consider teasers. When applied correctly, a simple teaser strategy can yield decent profits over time.
Doc’s Sports provides expert NFL picks for every matchup on our dedicated NFL predictions page.
What Exactly is a Teaser?
A teaser is a special type of parlay that enables bettors to adjust the line to their advantage. In exchange, sportsbooks modify the payout rates. There are various types of teaser bets available. For example, you can enhance the spread for 10 different NFL teams by 8 points. While the payout could be attractive, if you miss on even one, the entire wager becomes void.
Fortunately, a straightforward strategy for teasing NFL games has been refined and proven effective.
Understanding the Basic Strategy Teaser
The fundamental approach for teasing NFL games involves limiting your teaser to just two teams. Though it may be tempting to add more selections to a typical parlay, the complexity only increases.
Two selections should suffice. Next, it’s essential to employ a 6-point teaser. This requires teasing not just to, but through crucial numbers such as three and seven.
To achieve this, identify an underdog with odds ranging from (+1.5) to (+2.5) or a favorite with odds from (-7.5) to (-8.5). By adding six points to the underdog or teasing them up, you effectively navigate through those key numbers.
What qualifies as a key number? A key number represents a common point differential in NFL outcomes. The most frequent victory margin is three, followed by seven and then six.
We adjust underdogs from the (+1.5) to (+2.5) range, elevating them through the key numbers to dogs of (+7.5) to (+8.5). Conversely, when teasing a favorite down, we reduce their odds from (-7.5) to (-8.5) down to (-1.5) to (-2.5).
Potential Teaser Matches for Week 2 NFL
New England Patriots (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) Total: 44
Both the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins had rough performances in Week 1, with the Dolphins showing particularly poor form yet still not being underdogs at home.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a dismal debut, throwing for only 114 yards alongside two critical picks and a fumble.
While I anticipate an improved showing, I doubt they can outpace the Patriots. Even with a two-score lead, I can envision the powerful arm of Drake Maye keeping the competition tight.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) Total: 42.5
Here, we consider potentially teasing the Indianapolis Colts up to underdogs of (+8.5). That’s a substantial advantage to have at home, despite facing one of the toughest defenses in the league.
I foresee a possible score of around 23-13 favoring the Broncos. Their defense is formidable, so I would advise caution.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Houston Texans (-2.5) Total: 42.5
Our final teaser option for Week 2 focuses on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who narrowly clinched a victory against the Falcons thanks to a missed 44-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo.
Although it was an important win, it lacked high emotional stakes, especially without a notable comeback.
For the Texans, there’s a strong desire to secure their initial win of the season, and their defense should manage to contain Baker Mayfield effectively.
The low point total is advantageous for our six-point tease, and with so many offensive weapons, the Bucs are well-positioned for an outright win, making them a key addition to our Week 2 teaser.
Week 2 Basic Strategy Teaser Recommendation
New England Patriots (+7.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5): -120
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