- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees
- Date: Tuesday, October 7, 2025
- Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: FS1
- Betting Odds: Toronto (+125) New York (-150)
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The New York Yankees (94-68) are set to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) at Yankee Stadium this Tuesday for Game 3 of the ALDS, with the Jays holding a commanding 2-0 series lead. The Blue Jays’ moneyline is positioned at +125, while the Yankees are favored at -150. The total for the game is set at 7.5 runs, with Shane Bieber and Carlos Rodon expected to take the mound as starting pitchers.
This season, the Blue Jays have compiled 294 doubles and blasted 191 home runs. With a slugging percentage of .427, they have struck out 1,099 times, while drawing 520 walks. As a formidable offensive unit, the Jays average 4.9 runs per game, ranking them 4th in the league. They have accumulated a total of 771 RBIs and 1,461 hits, with a batting average of .265 and an on-base percentage of .333, leading to a total of 798 runs scored.
On the pitching side, the Blue Jays have recorded a team ERA of 4.18 (19th in the league) and have collectively struck out 1,430 batters. They’ve allowed 209 home runs and given up 721 runs (also ranking 19th). The pitching staff has issued 517 walks, with an overall FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.27. The Jays have conceded 1,313 hits, with an average of 8.2 hits per 9 innings, and maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.77, holding a collective WHIP of 1.27.
This year, the Blue Jays have used 570 relief pitchers. Their bullpen has inherited 254 runners, with 27.6% of them scoring. The Blue Jays’ relievers have racked up 42 saves out of 65 chances, resulting in a save percentage of 64.6%. They have also tallied 96 holds this season (10th in the league) and entered 168 save situations, with 156 high-leverage appearances.
Defensively, the Toronto Blue Jays have recorded 4,314 putouts, 1,272 assists, and 86 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in MLB) and 118 double plays. They convert 70.0% of balls in play into outs over 12,942 innings, ranking 14th in professional baseball.
Shane Bieber has pitched 883 innings in his career, accumulating 995 strikeouts. With a career record of 66-34, Bieber has a FIP of 3.19 and an ERA of 3.24, allowing 318 earned runs and holding a WHIP of 1.111. He has permitted 786 hits (8.0 per nine innings) and issued 195 walks.
The New York Yankees boast an on-base percentage of .332 and a batting average of .251 this season. They rank 3rd in MLB for strikeouts, totaling 1,463, and have achieved 1,371 hits, alongside 274 home runs and 820 RBIs. The Yankees lead the league in run scoring with an average of 5.24 per game and hold a slugging percentage of .455, with 255 doubles, and they’ve drawn 639 walks for a total of 849 runs.
New York’s pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.248 and a team FIP of 4.00, with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 9.00 (1,440 strikeouts to 557 walks). They rank 4th in the league for hits allowed, giving up 1,239, with 175 home runs, and have an ERA of 3.91 (625 earned runs) allowing 4.28 runs per 9 innings (14th overall).
The Yankees’ bullpen has a 27.5% scoring rate of inherited runners out of 255. They have 100 holds and 21 blown saves out of 166 save opportunities, resulting in a 67.2% save rate, ranking 7th in MLB. This season, New York has sent 533 relievers to the mound.
In terms of defense, the Yankees have demonstrated a 70.8% efficiency (6th in baseball), executing 105 double plays and achieving a fielding percentage of .984 (24th overall). They have recorded 1,389 assists, 94 errors, and a total of 4,319 putouts this season.
Rodon has a career record of 93-72 and an ERA of 3.74, allowing 7.6 hits per 9 innings with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.95. Over his career, he has faced 5,378 opposing batters, permitted 532 earned runs, and holds a WHIP of 1.219 and a FIP of 3.7. In total, Rodon has allowed 1,085 hits while accumulating 1,409 strikeouts across 1,281 innings pitched.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or on the moneyline?
Prediction: Choose New York (-150)
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