The anticipation has finally ended. With the transfer portal now calm and media days concluded, the first whistles of the college football season resonate across campuses. Week 1 is upon us, marking the return of Doc’s Opening Line Report (OLR)—where we sift through the clutter to focus on the critical numbers. Each week, we start with the opening lines—the most genuine market sentiment shaped by power ratings, returning talent, and those hard-to-quantify “intangibles.” Let’s analyze what the books are indicating before the public influences the odds.
Doc’s Sports provides expert college football predictions for every matchup on our dedicated predictions page.
Understanding the Contrast Between Week 0 & 1 and the Rest of the Season
Week 0 and Week 1 present unique challenges in handicapping as teams benefit from extended preparation, with betting lines released well in advance. This scenario offers bettors ample time to analyze and react to evolving information. Unlike later weeks, where quick turnarounds and reactions to previous games dictate lines, these early odds can be accessible for weeks or even months, especially concerning marquee matchups, leading to significant movements due to sharp or public betting driven by news such as player injuries or transfers.
For instance, in 2024, the Indiana Hoosiers clashed with Florida International, initially favoring Indiana by 18.5 points. Following significant changes, including the hiring of new head coach Curt Cignetti from James Madison University, the line shifted dramatically as expectations grew. Cignetti not only brought many staff members but also recruited several of his JMU players to join the struggling Big Ten team. As sentiment built and buzz emerged about a revival in Bloomington, the betting line climbed, ultimately closing at IU -25.5. Indiana kickstarted their remarkable journey to the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoffs with a 31-7 victory, yet they did not cover the final spread of 25.5.
No. 25 Boise State vs. South Florida (+6.5/63) Aug. 28, 5:30 p.m. EST ESPN
The visiting Broncos are riding the momentum of a highly successful season, having claimed the Mountain West conference title with a 12-1 regular season record and earning a first-round playoff bye. However, they faced a formidable Penn State defense and were ousted in the quarterfinals, losing 31-14. Boise State returns seven starters on offense, including three-year starting quarterback Maddus Madsen. Unfortunately, they will miss 2024 Heisman Trophy runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty. They will compete against a South Florida team that finished 6-6 in the regular season, known for an exhilarating non-playoff bowl victory against San Jose State in a thrilling 5OT match, winning 41-39. The Bulls return eight starters on both sides of the ball. The opening line was set at BSU -10 but has now adjusted down to -6. The public’s skepticism about the Broncos’ offensive capabilities, following the loss of their standout running back, contrasts with their seasoned roster, which should aid them against a spirited South Florida team. PICK: Boise State -6.5
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 3 Ohio State (-2*-/47.5) Aug. 30, Noon FOX
Texas starts the season with Arch Manning taking over the starting role after backing up Quinn Ewers in 2024. Manning displayed exceptional skills, completing over 66 percent of his passes and averaging more than 10 yards per throw during his two late-game starts last season. He now leads a talented offensive unit featuring Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr., and five-star freshman Kaliq Lockett, providing a mix of experience and explosive potential. On defense, the Longhorns return the majority of a squad that ranked third nationally in yards allowed per play and led the nation in opponent passing efficiency. This continuity is crucial against Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, a redshirt freshman making his first college start. Sayin steps into a highly skilled roster but will contend with a defense adept at puzzling young quarterbacks and capitalizing on timing errors. Additionally, Ohio State experienced coaching changes in the offseason, bringing about uncertainty just as they integrate a new quarterback. The betting line began with Ohio State favored by 3, but has shifted to -2 as sharp money favors Texas. The Longhorns, ranked No. 1 in both major preseason polls, come with the added motivation to avenge last season’s playoff loss. Given their stable roster, elite defensive consistency, and a quarterback poised for success, Texas holds the advantage and momentum to claim victory. PICK: Texas +2
Missouri State vs. USC (-35/59.5) Aug. 30, 7:30 p.m. EST BTN
USC launches the season against Missouri State, a team making its FBS debut; the disparity in program infrastructure, depth, and speed is expected to be evident early on. The Trojans are coming off a transitional year in the Big Ten and start 2025 with a fresh focus and an ideal matchup to demonstrate their system. Missouri State may possess energy and ambition, but facing a Power Five competitor like USC in the Coliseum presents a unique challenge. The Trojans’ tempo, physical style, and tactical finesse should outmatch a Bears team still acclimating to the rapid pace and complexity of elite football. The line, set steep at 35, reflects USC’s historical ability to manage mismatches effectively, particularly in season openers. Anticipate quick separation, a strong start, and a defense that limits Missouri State’s chances to sustain drives. PICK: USC -35
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