The closing lines for NFL games are notoriously precise, making it challenging to outsmart them over time. However, one often-overlooked betting strategy is capitalizing on the opening lines. By placing your bets early, you can lock in advantageous lines that could shift before kickoff. While a point or two adjustment in your favor may not appear significant, it can ultimately determine success or failure in the long run. Last season, we recorded a strong 32-20-2 mark against the spread on opening lines, achieving a commendable 61% winning rate. Doc’s Sports is committed to delivering free opening line picks weekly throughout the season, striving for our fourth consecutive profitable campaign with this approach. Make sure to secure these picks quickly, as line availability is uncertain by next week’s kickoff.
For comprehensive NFL expert picks for every match, visit our NFL predictions page at Doc’s Sports.
Game 1: Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers
Opening Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
This season marks the NFL’s second consecutive game in Brazil during Week 1, and seizing the Chiefs at this favorable line is essential. Expect public support for Kansas City upon realizing the Chargers are not benefiting from a home-field advantage, as the game will occur at a neutral location. This shifting public perception may drive the line upward, where even a minor half-point move in favor of the Chiefs would be substantial. Notably, 15% of NFL contests conclude with a victory margin of precisely 3 points, highlighting the critical importance of securing a push instead of a loss with a field goal margin.
On the field, the Chiefs present several appealing factors in this matchup. While Kansas City may have an aging offense expected to play without Rashee Rice, they retain one of the league’s premier quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes will be highly motivated after experiencing last season’s Super Bowl disappointment. A commanding performance from the Chiefs’ offense is anticipated. Furthermore, although Justin Herbert and his team can score points in bunches, the Chiefs’ defense is primed to contain them. Kansas City has established its dynasty fueled by a formidable defense, and their pass rush is poised to challenge Herbert significantly. With Chris Jones and George Karlaftis leading the charge, their impact is undeniable when healthy. Moreover, the Chargers face complications due to the season-ending injury of left tackle Rashawn Slater, creating a vast gap for the offense. Herbert’s time in the pocket will diminish, leading to significant pressure from a motivated Chiefs pass rush. Leaning heavily on their defense, Kansas City aims to kick off the season in style, and this narrow spread won’t deter us from backing the Chiefs, so securing this bet promptly is vital.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Game 2: Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
Opening Line: New England Patriots (-2.5)
The New England Patriots are ready to emerge from their rebuilding phase with a competitive lineup, poised to begin the season with a win against the Raiders. Drake Maye had an impressive rookie season, although it was largely overshadowed by other quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. He’s set to continue evolving, supported by a defense capable of pushing for a surprising playoff run. The combination of Christian Gonzalez, Jabrill Peppers, and Carlton Davis forms one of the league’s toughest secondaries, which poses a challenge for the Raiders lacking a reliable short game without deep connections. New England can trust their defensive backs in man coverage against an inconsistent Geno Smith, enabling them to bolster their run defense. Conversely, the Raiders allowed 25th in points per game last season. Although Las Vegas faced injury challenges, they didn’t adequately address their defensive deficiencies in the offseason, leading to an advantageous situation for Maye. Both teams have struggled in recent seasons; however, New England’s offseason acquisitions may allow them to claim a Week 1 victory. The current line suggests these teams are evenly matched, given New England’s home-field advantage, which isn’t reflective of reality. Additionally, considering this spread falls just below the critical three-point threshold offers considerable upside with minimal downside in locking in this bet.
Pick: New England Patriots (-2.5)
Game 3: San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
Opening Line: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
The NFC West rival teams will meet in Seattle for the season opener, where we’re betting on the home team to cover, if not win outright. Seattle made significant moves this offseason, resulting in a much-improved offense. Sam Darnold delivered his best season yet last year, and the former Viking aims to silence the skeptics with a strong start. Despite missing DK Metcalf, Seattle’s receiving corps remains formidable with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, alongside recent additions Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Complemented by an explosive Kenneth Walker in the backfield, Seattle’s offense is equipped to challenge the 49ers. While San Francisco’s offense looks solid on paper, injuries to key players Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings have left gaps in their roster. A healthy Christian McCaffrey can enhance their passing attack; however, it’s debatable whether Brock Purdy holds a significant advantage over Sam Darnold. Both teams are closely matched defensively, but with Seattle at home and healthier, receiving points is a favorable strategy.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Season Record: 0-0
2024 Season Record: 32-20-2
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