- Matchup: Arizona Wildcats vs SMU Mustangs
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
- Venue: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: FOX
- Betting Odds: Mustangs (+3.0)
- Total Points Over/Under: 52
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The Arizona Wildcats (9-3) will be competing against the SMU Mustangs (8-4) in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl at Snapdragon Stadium on January 2, 2026. Arizona is entering this matchup as 3.0-point favorites, with the total points set at 52.
Currently, the Arizona Wildcats boast a season record of 9-3. Their most recent game was against the Arizona State Sun Devils, where they emerged victorious with a score of 23-7. In terms of rushing defense, the Wildcats allowed 100 yards over 27 carries, averaging 3.7 yards per rush. In the passing game, they permitted 11 completions on 25 attempts for a total of 114 yards, resulting in a completion rate of 44.0%. Overall, the Wildcats concluded this game with 89 total plays, amassing 374 yards. On offense, Arizona attempted to run the ball 44 times, achieving 88 rushing yards at an average of 2.0 yards per attempt.
When it comes to scoring, the Wildcats average 32.6 points per game. Their ground offense averages 150.4 rushing yards, ranking them 77th nationally. For the season, Arizona has accumulated 4,858 total yards. In the end zone, they’ve scored 26 touchdowns through the air and 20 on the ground. The team has secured 263 first downs while facing 67 penalties that totaled 619 yards lost. Additionally, they have turned the ball over 12 times.
Defensively, the Wildcats rank 20th in college football, allowing an average of 18.9 points per game. Opponents gain about 4.0 yards per rushing attempt and average 145.7 rushing yards per game against them. This season, they have yielded a total of 1,748 rushing yards over 12 games. In terms of passing stats, Arizona has surrendered 1,871 passing yards, ranking them 3rd nationally, while allowing 155.9 yards per game through the air and a completion percentage of 53.1%. Overall, they concede 301.6 yards per game, placing them 16th in college football. They have allowed 10 passing touchdowns along with 16 rushing touchdowns.
The SMU Mustangs enter this showdown with a record of 8-4 for the season. In their previous encounter, they suffered a narrow defeat against the California Golden Bears, with a final score of 38-35. SMU’s defense allowed 37 rushing attempts, totaling 122 yards at an average of 3.3 yards per carry. Their pass defense faltered, giving up 330 yards with a completion percentage of 77.5%, allowing 31 completions on 40 throws. The Mustangs accumulated 477 total yards through 67 plays, averaging 7.1 yards per play and rushing for 227 yards on 31 attempts at an average of 7.3 yards.
As for their performance, the Mustangs average 419.0 yards per game, ranking them 33rd in the country. However, they have committed 876 yards in penalties across 85 infractions, also placing 33rd in that category. SMU averages 135.5 rushing yards per game and has amassed a total of 1,626 rushing yards throughout the season. They have thrown 10 interceptions and allowed opponents to recover 6 fumbles, while achieving 251 first downs. On the scoreboard, the Mustangs rank 26th in Division 1, averaging 32.9 points per game. Their season passing total stands at 3,402 yards, averaging 283.5 passing yards per game, placing them 12th nationally.
The SMU defense allows 20.7 points per game, ranking 32nd in college football. They have conceded 1,271 rushing yards (105.9 yards per game) and 5 rushing touchdowns this season. In passing defense, they’ve allowed a total of 23 touchdowns, yielding an average of 284.7 yards per game, putting them 135th nationally. Over the course of the season, the Mustangs’ defense has participated in 899 plays, ranking them 128th in the country, and has recovered 10 fumbles while securing 17 interceptions. Overall, they have given up 248 points this season.
Will the Wildcats or Mustangs prevail in this college football game against the spread?
Expert’s Recommendation: Bet on the Mustangs +3.0
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