Matchup: Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox
Date: Saturday, August 2, 2025
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Broadcast: NESN
Betting Odds: Houston (-128) Boston (+106)
On Saturday at Fenway Park, the Boston Red Sox (59-51) will face off against the Houston Astros (62-47). The odds are in favor of the Astros at -128, while the Red Sox start the game at +106. The total runs for betting are set at 9. The anticipated starting pitchers for this matchup are Colton Gordon and Walker Buehler.
As a collective, the Houston Astros are scoring an average of 4.3 runs per game, ranking them 16th in the league. They have compiled a total of 473 runs with an on-base percentage of .322. The team has recorded 164 doubles and 120 home runs this season, alongside 451 RBIs and 946 hits, resulting in a batting average of .257. Furthermore, Houston boasts a slugging percentage of .405, with 858 strikeouts, and they’ve walked 316 times.
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The Astros have maintained an ERA of 3.69 this season (8th in MLB) and their pitching staff has achieved 1,057 strikeouts. They have conceded 126 home runs and allowed a total of 424 runs (6th in the league). With 325 walks issued to opposing batters, their FIP stands at 3.73. Houston has given up 830 hits, averaging 7.7 hits per 9 innings, and has an overall yield of 398 earned runs, boasting a strikeout-to-walk rate of 3.25 and a combined WHIP of 1.19.
This year, the Astros’ relief pitchers have taken the mound a total of 338 times. The bullpen has inherited 104 runners, with a scoring rate of 26.9%. They have a total of 34 saves but have only converted on 12 out of 46 save opportunities. Houston’s relief squad holds a 73.9% save success rate with 115 save situations to their name. They have also recorded 68 holds this year, ranking 9th in the league, and have entered games with baserunners 75 times in high-pressure scenarios.
In defensive play, the Astros have managed to convert 70.5% of balls put in play into outs across 8,739 innings, landing them 10th in the MLB. The team’s fielding statistics show 2,913 putouts, 850 assists, and 46 errors as they maintain a fielding percentage of .988, placing 8th overall, alongside 69 double plays executed.
Gordon has pitched 62 innings and achieved 54 strikeouts during his career. With a career record of 4-3, he holds a FIP of 4.70, having faced 275 batters in the major leagues. His current ERA is 4.77, allowing 33 earned runs, and he possesses a career WHIP of 1.431, giving up 78 hits (11.3 hits per 9 innings) along with 11 walks.
The Boston Red Sox have a team slugging percentage of .432 and score an average of 4.95 runs per game (4th in the league). They have recorded 226 doubles and 353 walks while tallying up 545 runs this season. Boston has hit 137 home runs and accounted for 523 RBIs. They rank 3rd in strikeouts with 995 and have notched 959 hits, alongside a .323 team OBP and a batting average of .253.
The Red Sox pitching staff has allowed 477 runs this season, maintaining an ERA of 3.76 (with 412 earned runs). They have relinquished 112 home runs and allow 4.36 runs per 9 innings (17th in the league). The team has a WHIP of 1.298 and a FIP sitting at 3.97. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 8.40, with 916 strikeouts compared to 364 walks. As a pitching unit, they are ranked 22nd in the league for total hits allowed, totaling 915.
Boston’s bullpen has inherited a scoring rate of 32.9% from their 146 inherited runners. The relief pitchers have stepped in 139 times under high-pressure situations and 111 times with runners on base. With 115 save situations, the bullpen has accumulated 61 holds and has blown 22 saves. Their save percentage currently stands at 57.7%, ranking them 24th in MLB, with 359 relief pitchers utilized throughout the season.
Across 8,865 innings, the Red Sox have a defensive efficiency of 68.8% (25th in professional baseball). They have achieved 91 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .979 (29th in MLB). The Red Sox have 1,009 assists, 84 errors, and 2,955 putouts this season.
Buehler (53-28 career record) has registered an ERA of 3.54, allowing 7.7 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 3.57, facing 3,306 hitters throughout his career. He has given up 316 earned runs while maintaining a WHIP of 1.142 and a FIP of 3.5. To date, Buehler has conceded 685 hits and racked up 825 strikeouts in 802 innings.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB contest against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Recommendation: Back Houston (-128)
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