- Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- Broadcast: CBS
- Betting Odds: Broncos (-1.5)
- Total Points Over/Under: 46.5
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The Buffalo Bills (12-5) are gearing up for a road game at Empower Field at Mile High on Saturday, clashing with the Denver Broncos (14-3) in the AFC Divisional Playoff. Current odds favor Denver by 1.5 points. The over-under for this matchup is set at 46.5.
The Bills bring a 12-5 record into this matchup. In their previous outing, they faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars, securing a hard-fought 27-24 victory. James Cook led the team’s rushing attack with 15 carries for 46 yards, averaging 3.1 yards per attempt. Khalil Shakir made a significant impact with 12 receptions for 82 yards, catching the ball at an average of 6.8 yards per reception. Quarterback Josh Allen completed 28 passes out of 35 attempts for 273 yards, tossing 1 touchdown and registering a QB rating of 108.7, with no interceptions thrown. However, the Bills’ run defense allowed 154 yards on 23 carries, surrendering an average of 6.7 yards per rush. On the passing side, Buffalo conceded 18 completions on 30 attempts for a total of 205 yards, showcasing a completion percentage of 60.0%. Finished with 61 offensive plays, the Bills accumulated a total of 340 yards. They rushed the football 26 times, amassing 79 yards for an average of 3.0 yards per carry.
Throughout the season, the Bills have accumulated a remarkable 6,397 total yards. The team has achieved 196 first downs, though they have faced setbacks with 101 penalties costing them 848 yards. In terms of touchdown efficiency, Buffalo has recorded 29 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns. On the turnover front, they’ve turned the ball over 19 times (10 interceptions and 9 fumbles lost). Currently, they boast a top-tier average of 159.6 rushing yards per game, ranking them 1st in the NFL. The Bills score an impressive average of 28.3 points per game.
Defensively, the Bills rank 12th in the NFL in points allowed, giving up an average of 21.5 points per game. Opponents have rushed for an average of 5.1 yards per attempt, accumulating 136.2 rushing yards per game. On passing defense, the Bills have allowed 2,668 yards, leading the league with an average of 156.9 passing yards permitted per game and a completion rate of 59.7%. Overall, they concede 293.1 total yards per game, placing them 7th among NFL defenses. They’ve allowed 19 touchdowns in the air and 24 on the ground, totaling 2,315 rushing yards over the course of the season.
The Denver Broncos enter this matchup with a solid 14-3 record. In their last contest, they secured a win with a score of 19-3 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Bo Nix finished the game with 141 yards, completing 14 of 23 passes and achieving a quarterback rating of 78.4, with no interceptions thrown and an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. Pat Bryant was instrumental in the passing game, catching 4 passes for 31 yards (averaging 7.8 yards per catch). Running back RJ Harvey carried the ball 15 times for 28 yards, averaging 1.9 yards per attempt. Overall, the Broncos generated 240 total yards, running 54 plays at an average of 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, they averaged 3.7 yards per carry with a total of 116 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Defensively, Denver’s run defense allowed 21 attempts for 113 yards (5.4 yards per rush), while their passing defense yielded a completion rate of 45.5%, surrendering 104 yards on 20 completions out of 44 attempts.
In terms of scoring, the Broncos rank 14th in the NFL, averaging 23.6 points per game. Throughout the season, Denver has generated 3,807 passing yards, averaging 223.9 passing yards per game, positioning them 11th in the league. Their rushing attack boasts an average of 118.7 yards per game, accumulating a total of 2,018 yards. The overall offensive output stands at an average of 342.6 yards per game, placing the Broncos 10th in the NFL. Penalties have been an issue for Denver as they have given up 1,149 yards via 124 infractions, ranking them 5th in the league in terms of penalties that aid their opponents. The offense has managed to put up 196 first downs while committing 11 interceptions and losing 6 fumbles this season.
On the defensive side, the Broncos allow 18.3 points per game, putting them 3rd in the league. They’ve surrendered 18 passing touchdowns and given up 187.2 yards per game through the air, ranking them 7th in the league. In the ground game, the Broncos have allowed a total of 1,548 rushing yards (averaging 91.1 yards per game) and 11 rushing touchdowns this season. With 1,061 defensive plays this season, they rank 21st in the league, while forcing 14 turnovers (4 forced fumbles and 10 interceptions).
Who will come out on top in this critical matchup between the Bills and Broncos against the spread?
Prediction: Take the Bills +1.5
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