- Matchup: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- Broadcast: CBS
- Point Spread: Broncos (+5)
- Over/Under Total: 42
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The New England Patriots (14-3) will visit Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday for the AFC Championship showdown against the Denver Broncos (14-3). The oddsmakers have set Denver as 5-point underdogs, with a total of 42 points.
In their AFC Divisional round clash, the Patriots faced the Houston Texans and emerged victorious with a score of 28-16. Rhamondre Stevenson was notable on the ground, carrying the ball 16 times for 70 yards (4.4 yards per carry). Stefon Diggs averaged 10.0 yards per reception, totaling 40 yards on 4 receptions. Quarterback Drake Maye completed 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards and 3 touchdowns, earning a QB rating of 100.7 despite throwing 1 interception. Defensively, the Patriots allowed 48 rushing yards on 22 attempts, averaging 2.2 yards per rush. In the air, they surrendered 20 completions on 47 attempts for 193 yards, achieving a completion percentage of 42.6%. New England executed 59 plays, gaining a total of 248 yards while recording 105 rushing yards from 32 carries (3.3 yards per attempt).
The Patriots have accumulated 6,449 yards over the season. They have achieved 206 first downs and have been penalized 99 times for 854 yards. In scoring, New England has recorded 31 touchdown passes and 22 rushing touchdowns. The team has turned the ball over 16 times (8 interceptions and 8 fumbles), averaging 128.9 rushing yards, which positions them 6th in the league. Their scoring average stands at 28.8 points per game.
In terms of pass defense, the Patriots have allowed 3,290 yards this season, ranking them 9th in the NFL. They give up an average of 193.5 passing yards per game, with an opposing completion percentage of 66.4%. In total, New England has conceded 1,729 rushing yards in 17 games, allowing 25 passing touchdowns and 11 rushing touchdowns. Overall, they permit 295.2 yards per game, ranking 8th in the league, and allow an average of 4.2 yards per carry and 101.7 rushing yards per game. The Patriots’ defense is commendable, allowing only 18.8 points per game, putting them 4th overall in the league.
In their last outing during the AFC Divisional round, the Broncos secured a 33-30 win over the Buffalo Bills. Bo Nix rushed 12 times for 29 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Marvin Mims stood out as the top receiver for Denver, catching 8 passes for 93 yards (11.6 yards per catch). Nix threw for 279 yards on 26 completions out of 46 attempts, achieving 3 touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 87.1, but he also tossed 1 interception. The Broncos’ rushing defense faced 36 attempts, yielding 183 yards (5.1 yards per rush). In passing defense, they allowed a completion rate of 64.1%, giving up 266 yards on 25 out of 39 passes. Overall, Denver accumulated 349 yards on 68 plays, resulting in an average of 5.1 yards per play, and they managed 70 rushing yards on 22 carries for an average of 3.2 yards per attempt.
Examining their scoring abilities, the Broncos sit at 14th in the league, averaging 23.6 points per game. For the entire season, they have recorded 3,807 yards passing, averaging 223.9 yards per game, which ranks them 11th overall. They also average 118.7 rushing yards per game, compiling a total of 2,018 rushing yards. The Denver offense averages 342.6 total yards per game, placing them 10th in the NFL. However, they have also committed 124 penalties for 1,149 yards, ranking them 5th in this regard. The team has recorded 11 interceptions and 6 fumbles, totaling 196 first downs.
The Broncos’ defense is among the best, allowing just 18.3 points per game, which ranks them 3rd overall. They have permitted 18 passing touchdowns and limited opposing teams to 187.2 passing yards per game, placing them 7th in the league for pass defense. They’ve given up 1,548 rushing yards this season (91.1 per game) and allowed 11 rushing touchdowns. With 1,061 plays from scrimmage, their defense ranks 21st in professional football, having forced 14 turnovers (4 fumbles and 10 interceptions). Overall, they’ve conceded 311 total points this season.
Who will prevail in this AFC Championship clash between the Patriots and Broncos against the spread?
Prediction: Back the Patriots -5
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