The 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who achieved a 10-7 record and clinched their fourth consecutive NFC South championship, present a fascinating case. Remarkably, their overall performance was much stronger than their record suggests.
Surpassing their preseason Las Vegas win total of 7.5, Tampa actually fell short of their Pythagorean win prediction by 1.1 games. They ended the season with a negative turnover differential of -5 and struggled in close games, finishing 1-6 in contests decided by five points or less or that went into overtime.
Despite these challenges, they exceeded their expected win total by three games!
During the 2023 season, the Buccaneers also outperformed expectations, finishing 9-7 and surpassing Vegas projections by four games. Over the last two years, they’ve collectively beaten their win total by an impressive seven games. Furthermore, they have achieved a remarkable 5-1 record against Las Vegas win totals over the past six seasons, aiming to extend a franchise record of five straight postseason appearances in 2025.
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 OFFENSE
Last season, Tampa Bay thrived due to one of the most efficient offenses in the league. They ranked third in total offense and fourth in points scored. Notably, they led the league on third down with a conversion rate of 51.1% and were fourth in the red zone, converting 66.7% of their opportunities into touchdowns.
Baker Mayfield has established himself as a top-tier quarterback and a leading figure for the franchise. He has registered back-to-back seasons with over 4,000 passing yards and has accumulated 73 touchdowns combined over the last two years.
Having a stellar receiving lineup featuring Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan certainly helps. Additionally, the Buccaneers bolstered their passing game by drafting Ohio State rookie Emeka Egbuka in the first round.
However, there’s concern regarding All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is currently rehabilitating from a knee injury and will miss at least the first four games of the upcoming season. The offensive line, which had previously been mediocre, significantly improved last season, rising from 32nd to 4th in the NFL for rushing.
Another worry is that Tampa will have its third offensive coordinator in as many years after Liam Coen (left for Jacksonville) and Dave Canales (moved to Carolina) took head coaching roles. New OC Josh Grizzard is stepping into the role for the first time at any level.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 DEFENSE
Last season, the Buccaneers registered their lowest scoring defense in the last five years, finishing 16th in points allowed, a decline from their 7th-place finish the year prior. Their total defense ranked 18th, showcasing only a slight improvement from 23rd in 2023.
A highlight of the Bucs’ defense last year was their red zone efforts, ranking 9th in that area. Coupled with their offensive efficiency within the 20-yard line, the Bucs were among only four teams (Denver, Chicago, and Philadelphia) boasting Top 10 red zone units on both offense and defense.
The defensive unit remains largely the same this year, with only one new starter. Vita Vea anchors the defensive line while LaVonte David continues to amass impressive stats in his career.
Better performances from the secondary are needed, as Tampa’s passing defense ranked 29th last year. Cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum had inconsistent performances, but the team’s pass rush, which placed 7th in the league and added Hassan Reddick, suggests the primary issues lie within the secondary rather than the pass rush.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 SCHEDULE
Sun, Sep 7 @ Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m.
Mon, Sep 15 @ Houston Texans 7:00 p.m.
Sun, Sep 21 vs New York Jets 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Sep 28 vs Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Oct 5 @ Seattle Seahawks 4:05 p.m.
Sun, Oct 12 vs San Francisco 49ers 1:00 p.m.
Mon, Oct 20 @ Detroit Lions 7:00 p.m.
Sun, Oct 26 @ New Orleans Saints 4:05 p.m.
Week 9 BYE
Sun, Nov 9 vs New England Patriots 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Nov 16 @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Nov 23 @ Los Angeles Rams (SNF) 8:20 p.m.
Sun, Nov 30 vs Arizona Cardinals 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Dec 7 vs New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m.
Thu, Dec 11 vs Atlanta Falcons (TNF) 8:15 p.m.
Sun, Dec 21 @ Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m.
Sun, Dec 28 @ Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m.
Week 18 vs Carolina Panthers TBD
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS
With their fourth consecutive victory in the NFC South, Tampa Bay faces a first-place schedule for 2025. This includes matchups against other division champions like Philadelphia and Detroit, along with challenging away games against Buffalo and the Rams. The Bucs will embark on seven of their first eleven games on the road, comprising four back-to-back road game sequences.
A silver lining is the division’s overall weakness, as New Orleans appears to be struggling and Carolina has been among the league’s least successful teams in recent years. Coupled with Atlanta’s challenges, Tampa has a relatively clear route to potentially securing a fifth consecutive division title and a return to the playoffs.
Even if they manage to sweep their divisional rivals (which seems ambitious) and secure wins against the struggling Jets and Patriots, they would still fall short of 10 wins by two games. Over the past two seasons, Tampa has shown to be a strong underdog, boasting a 13-6 cover record with eight straight-up upsets. However, given their daunting road schedule, defeating Detroit and Philadelphia again this year seems unlikely.
Betting against Baker Mayfield doesn’t sit right with me. Wagering on the Bucs’ ‘under’ implies the emergence of a challenger from the South, which I do not foresee. Still, the odds suggest that if they claim a fifth straight title, it may require at least nine wins.
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