Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Date: Saturday, August 9, 2025
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast: SportsNet Pittsburgh
Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds (-150), Pittsburgh Pirates (+125)
On Saturday, the Pittsburgh Pirates (49-66) are set to face off against the Cincinnati Reds (60-55) at PNC Park. Cincinnati is favored at -150 on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is listed at +125. The over/under for this game is 8.5 runs, with Nick Martinez and Braxton Ashcraft expected to take the mound.
The Reds have accumulated 179 doubles and have hit 117 home runs this season. With a slugging percentage of .390, the team has struck out 989 times but has drawn 381 walks. Cincinnati scores an average of 4.5 runs per game, ranking 11th in the league, with a total of 490 RBIs and 947 hits this year. Their batting average stands at .246, with 521 runs scored and an on-base percentage of .318.
As for pitching, the Reds exhibit a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.65 and a WHIP of 1.24. The staff has allowed 129 home runs and 479 total runs, ranking 13th in the league. Cincinnati has given up 897 hits, leading to an earned run average (ERA) of 3.87, placing them 14th in MLB. The pitching staff has struck out 954 batters while walking 360, with a FIP of 4.08 for the season.
When it comes to their bullpen, Reds relievers have entered with runners on base 97 times, facing high-stakes situations in 105 appearances. The bullpen has recorded 72 holds this season, ranking 9th in the league, with a save percentage of 66.7% from 116 save opportunities. Out of 28 total saves, the Reds have missed 14 chances. They have inherited 153 runners this season, with 34.6% scoring. A total of 391 pitchers have taken the mound in relief this year.
Defensively, the Reds have converted 71.2% of balls hit into play into outs over 9,150 innings, ranking 5th in the league. The Chicago White Sox recorded 3,050 putouts, with 864 assists but 59 errors, bringing their fielding percentage to .985, which positions them 20th overall. They have executed 68 double plays.
Martinez, with a career record of 46 wins and 54 losses, holds a FIP of 4.11. He has faced 3,835 hitters and allowed 902 hits (averaging 9.0 hits per 9 innings) along with 278 walks. His earned run average is 4.18, allowing 419 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.306. Martinez has pitched for 903 innings, accumulating 647 strikeouts.
On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Pirates have recorded 81 home runs and 395 RBIs this season, along with 159 doubles, 362 walks, and 407 runs scored. Their on-base percentage stands at .303 and batting average at .232, with a team slugging percentage of .346, resulting in an average of 3.54 runs scored per game (30th in the league). The Pirates have struck out 1,005 times (7th highest in MLB) and achieved 888 hits.
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff features a WHIP of 1.216 and a FIP of 3.93. They maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.80, with 879 strikeouts against 334 walks. The pitching unit ranks 7th in total hits allowed, at 903, with 112 home runs given up and an average of 4.12 runs allowed per 9 innings (9th in MLB). For the season, they’ve given up 466 runs, boasting an ERA of 3.88.
The Pirates’ bullpen has an inherited score rate of 33.3% from 162 inherited runners. Relief pitchers have entered high-leverage situations 114 times, also stepping in with runners on base 105 times. With 99 save opportunities, they’ve tallied 54 holds and faced 19 blown saves. The Pirates rank 25th in save percentage at 55.8%, and a total of 354 relief pitchers have appeared this season. Out of 43 save opportunities, they have successfully secured 24 saves.
The Pirates have executed 84 double plays and possess a fielding percentage of .987, ranking 9th in MLB. With 962 assists, 52 errors, and 3,051 putouts over 9,153 innings, their defensive efficiency stands at 71.4%, placing them 3rd among professional baseball teams.
Ashcraft, with a career mark of 3-2, holds a 3.26 earned run average, allowing 9.2 hits per 9 innings. He has faced 144 opposing hitters, recording a K/BB ratio of 2.33. Ashcraft has surrendered 12 earned runs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.390 and a FIP of 3.2. In his career, he has allowed 34 hits while accumulating 28 strikeouts over 33 innings pitched.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB contest against the spread or moneyline?
Tony Sink’s Prediction: Take Pittsburgh (+125)
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